Transferring to the Massive Ten doesn’t make sense financially or competitively for Oregon and Washington, in line with the retired president of Fox Sports activities who negotiated quite a few media rights offers with school conferences.
Bob Thompson, an Oregon graduate, believes “staying the place you’re at” is one of the best transfer for the Pacific Northwest tandem, significantly with the expanded Faculty Soccer Playoff offering the Pac-12 champion a near-certain berth.
“The enlargement of the (playoff) and the actual fact there are possible going to be computerized bids for quite a lot of convention champions is nice for the Pac-12,” Thompson mentioned on ‘Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast.’
Throughout a wide-ranging dialogue that centered on the Pac-12’s media rights technique — the convention is at present negotiating a brand new settlement, to start within the fall of 2024 — Thompson was requested concerning the monetary part behind additional Massive Ten enlargement.
The convention, which added USC and UCLA on June 30, is reportedly contemplating extra West Coast faculties, with Oregon and Washington atop the checklist.
Nonetheless, it has lengthy coveted Notre Dame, and the Irish are reportedly the one college talked about by identify within the portion of the Massive Ten’s media rights contract that covers enlargement.
“The one one which pencils out … is Notre Dame,” Thompson mentioned. “And I don’t suppose that if Oregon and Washington — and even throw in Stanford and Cal, in the event that they went on the market — that they’re going to get a full share.”
The Massive Ten contract, which was introduced in August, is about to pay every college greater than $70 million within the second half of the last decade, because of a three-pronged partnership with Fox, NBC and CBS.
To ensure that West Coast groups to earn a full share, the networks should be keen to pay them roughly $70 million per yr over the lifetime of the seven-year contract.
In different phrases, including Oregon, UW, Stanford and Cal to create a western division would price Massive Ten media companions an extra $280 million per yr for seven years — or $2 billion in whole.
If Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal aren't assigned $70 million annual valuations by the TV networks, there can be two choices: 1) Pay each college the identical quantity, which might be lower than the $70 million the 16 are scheduled to earn; or 2) Pay the 4 new members lower than the opposite 16.
“They’d have to come back out at a reduction,” mentioned Thompson, who negotiated media offers with the Pac-12 throughout his tenure at Fox Sports activities. “And it might be a big low cost, in all probability not a complete lot greater than you’re going to get staying within the Pac-12.”
He was additionally skeptical of the aggressive advantages that may include membership within the Massive Ten.
When the Faculty Soccer Playoff expands to 12 groups (as early as 2024), it's going to present computerized berths for the six highest-ranked convention champions, plus six at-large groups.
Win the Pac-12, and the probability of a berth is excessive.
Transfer into the cluttered Massive Ten, and the competitors for each computerized berths and at-large slots turns into fierce.
“Your possibilities for achievement and being related … from a playoff standpoint are enormously enhanced by staying the place you’re at,” Thompson mentioned.
Throughout a 45-minute dialogue, Thompson additionally provided his perception into:
— The way forward for the Pac-12 Networks.
— Enlargement choices for the Pac-12.
— How media rights negotiations unfold behind the scenes.
— The potential for a Pac-12 partnership with the ACC.
— Whether or not the Pac-12 ought to think about a streaming take care of Apple or Amazon.
“At this level, you stick your toe within the (streaming) water — and possibly a number of toes within the water — and the convention goes to come back off as both not very good or good, cutting-edge thinkers,’’ he mentioned.
“I feel you must go forward and take that step. And I feel they're.”
*** Pac-12 survival collection
The way forward for the Pac-12, and school soccer
The CFP expanded; the Pac-12 ought to, too
May CFP money hold Oregon and Washington joyful?
Is Amazon the reply? The advantages of a partnership
Pac-12 commissioner on state of negotiations
A radical plan: Going all in with Amazon
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