Arizona was winless within the truncated COVID season and managed one victory final fall. Understandably skeptical oddsmakers pegged the Wildcats for a mere three wins this 12 months.
However one month into the season, they've hit the quantity and are midway to bowl eligibility.
How possible is a postseason berth that when appeared extremely unlikely?
Arizona’s math doesn’t work with out an upset.
The Wildcats should win three of their ultimate seven video games however will probably be important underdogs in 5: at dwelling in opposition to Oregon and USC; and on the highway in opposition to Washington, Utah and UCLA.
All 5 are ranked, with a mixed report of 22-3.
If the Wildcats (3-2/1-1) lose all 5, they will’t attain the six-win threshold required for a bowl bid.
Win one of many 5, nonetheless, and they might safe a bowl bid by closing the season with dwelling victories over Washington State and Arizona State.
It’s not laborious to check Arizona producing an upset and beating Washington State, establishing a must-win finale in opposition to the Solar Devils.
Nearly two years to the day ASU laid the 70-7 beatdown on the Wildcats and despatched Kevin Sumlin packing, the Wildcats may very well be positioned to stamp their rebirth below second-year coach Jedd Fisch by beating the Solar Devils.
In our view, Arizona’s finest upset alternatives, by far, are the house video games in opposition to Oregon this week and USC on the finish of October.
The Wildcats need to keep away from (in any respect prices) must-win November dates at Utah, which could have additional time to arrange for Arizona following a Thursday recreation, and at UCLA, which is slotted one week after the taxing matchup in Salt Lake Metropolis.
All in all, we estimate Arizona’s likelihood of successful three extra video games at 25 %. Until Washington State exhibits clear indicators of decay, it’s troublesome to see that outlook enhancing considerably.
Then once more, 25 % is much better than zero %.
Now, to the Hotline’s first bowl projections of 2022 …
— On the choice course of: The Rose, Alamo, Vacation and Las Vegas bowls have the choice to skip one staff for an additional so long as they aren’t separated by multiple recreation within the convention standings. The Solar and LA bowls should make alternatives primarily based on order-of-finish.
Rose Bowl
Crew: Utah (4-1/2-0)
Dwelling video games remaining (three): USC, Arizona, Stanford
Highway video games remaining (4): UCLA, WSU, Oregon, Colorado
Remark: Our projected champion till there may be clear proof of a greater possibility. Thus far, we haven’t seen it.
Alamo Bowl
Crew: USC (5-0/3-0)
Dwelling (4): WSU, Cal, Colorado, Notre Dame
Highway (three): Utah, Arizona, UCLA
Remark: This might be the dream state of affairs for the Alamo with USC making its first-ever go to — and doing so with Lincoln Riley, the previous Oklahoma coach and Lubbock native.
Vacation Bowl
Crew: Oregon (4-1/2-0)
Dwelling (three): UCLA, Washington, Utah
Highway (4): Arizona, Cal, Colorado, Oregon State
Remark: We anticipate the Geese to succeed in, and lose in, the convention championship — then get handed over by the Alamo following their forgettable look final season.
Las Vegas Bowl
Crew: UCLA (5-0/2-0)
Dwelling (4): Utah, Stanford, Arizona, USC
Highway (three): Oregon, Arizona State, Cal
Remark: Assuming it has a selection, the Vacation Bowl desires no a part of the Bruins after they canceled final season. However a matchup in opposition to the SEC in Las Vegas isn’t a foul possibility.
Solar Bowl
Crew: Washington (4-1/1-1)
Dwelling (three): Arizona, Oregon State, Colorado
Highway (4): ASU, Cal, Oregon, WSU
Remark: We’re not satisfied UW can climb onto the highest tier even with a good schedule (no Utah or USC). However any bowl is healthier than no bowl after back-to-back seasons of, properly, no bowls.
LA Bowl
Crew: Washington State (4-1/1-1)
Dwelling (three): Utah, ASU, Washington
Highway (4): USC, Oregon State, Stanford, Arizona
Remark: The Cougars merely have to deal with floundering Stanford and ASU to safe their seventh consecutive bowl berth (COVID season excluded). So it’s only a matter of the place they land, not in the event that they qualify.
ESPN Bowl
Crew: Cal (3-2/1-1)
Dwelling (4): Washington, Oregon, Stanford, UCLA
Highway (three): Colorado, USC, Oregon State
Remark: This bowl can be both the First Responders, Armed Forces or Gasparilla — all of them in distant lands in opposition to groups from an assortment of conferences.
At-large bowl
Crew: Oregon State (3-2/0-2)
Dwelling (4): WSU, Cal, Colorado, Oregon
Highway (three): Stanford, Washington, ASU
Remark: The Beavers are in higher postseason place than it seems as a result of presence of Stanford, Colorado and ASU on the schedule. Their path to eligibility doesn’t require a victory over any of the highest groups.
Non-qualifier
Crew: Arizona (3-2/1-1)
Dwelling (4): Oregon, USC, Washington State, ASU
Highway (three): Washington, Utah, UCLA
Remark: Given the depleted state of this system over the earlier 4 seasons, we'd take into account 5 wins a hit for Jedd Fisch and Co., particularly if it features a victory over ASU.
Non-qualifier
Crew: Arizona State (1-4/0-2)
Dwelling (three): Washington, UCLA, Oregon State
Highway (4): Stanford, Colorado, WSU, Arizona
Remark: If the Solar Devils beat Washington on Saturday, as they've completed so typically through the years, the state of affairs begins to get attention-grabbing. That's not precisely a murderers’ row of highway video games.
Non-qualifier
Crew: Colorado (0-5/0-2)
Dwelling (4): Cal, ASU, Oregon, Utah
Highway (three): Oregon State, USC, Washington
Remark: Colorado has a much better likelihood of successful one recreation than the Hotline does of manufacturing two months’ price of attention-grabbing feedback to fill this house.
Non-qualifier
Crew: Stanford (1-3/0-3)
Dwelling (4): Oregon State, ASU, WSU, Brigham Younger
Highway (4): Notre Dame, UCLA, Utah, Cal
Remark: Making issues worse for the struggling program: Stanford’s bye has come and gone. No extra relaxation for the weary and wobbly.
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