I really feel dangerous for the Sacramento Kings.
This workforce performed an excellent 82-game common season, posting the very best offensive marketing campaign in league historical past whereas ending the franchise’s 16-year playoff drought. They earned the No. 3 seed within the Western Convention playoffs.
This workforce ought to be mentioned as a dark-horse choose for profitable the West. And but firstly of the playoffs, they’re Rodney Dangerfield: They’re getting no respect.
The Warriors have been rooting to play the Kings within the first spherical. What ought to be a NorCal rivalry is extra of a novelty to the Dubs.
At high sportsbooks, the Kings are huge underdogs to win the best-of-seven Battle of I-80 collection. FanDuel has the Kings at +215 to win (a $100 wager can revenue $215); DraftKings +225.
However that may not be a foul wager.
Revered or not, the reality is that heading into this first-round matchup, the Kings ask a number of questions of the Warriors — and the Warriors ask a couple of of themselves — that aren't simply answered.
The primary comes when the Kings have the ball.
The Kings will present the Dubs no feeling-out interval on this collection. The Warriors’ championship-level protection might want to present up from the opening tip of Recreation 1.
Former Warriors high assistant Mike Brown is now the top coach in Sacramento. He runs the Dubs’ offensive system, that means the Kings are in fixed movement.
And whereas it’s not an ideal reproduction of Golden State’s assault, solely the Warriors can say they make extra passes, handoffs, cuts, and screens than the Kings.
The primary level of distinction between the Warriors’ and Kings’ offense is whereas the Warriors play a side-to-side sport, Sacramento is extra downhill when the ball is in level guard De’Aaron Fox’s fingers.
That’s as a result of the Fox and Domantas Sabonis pick-and-roll — whereas not the muse of the Kings’ offense — is an elite play.
Whether or not Fox dishes or finishes, the play has resulted in an elite fee of greater than a degree per possession this season.
It additionally brings about journeys to the free-throw line. Whereas the Warriors have been final within the NBA in free-throw makes an attempt, the Kings averaged 25 per sport, good for seventh within the league.
Fox’s velocity goes to be an issue for the Warriors. The Dubs had actual issues with Ja Morant in final yr’s playoffs — after Gary Payton II was injured and earlier than Morant picked up an harm of his personal, the Grizzlies’ level guard was driving to the basket with impunity. Fox can do an excellent Morant impression. (On the court docket, that's.)
Payton II is wholesome for this collection, and Donte DiVincenzo may be capable to put in shifts, however it’s unimaginable to estimate if Andrew Wiggins can be at his greatest for the collection after months away from the workforce, and Klay Thompson’s days as a point-guard hound are behind him.
With Sabonis pulling the Warriors’ heart — be that Kevon Looney or… properly, I suppose it’s simply Looney — out to the perimeter, Fox ought to have clear lanes for drives.
And if he doesn’t, Sabonis is an elite choice to take the ball. Not solely can he rating in any respect three ranges off the dribble, however he’s additionally an elite passer for a giant man.
These two are the hub. The remainder of the Kings create excellent steadiness round them.
You may’t fluke your means right into a historic offense. Once they’re at their greatest, Fox and Sabonis are a 1-2 punch that's near unmatched.
Whether or not he’s taking part in ahead or smallball heart, Draymond Inexperienced’s job is to explode these pick-and-roll mixtures, taking part in as a “free security” for the Warriors’ protection. Inexperienced’s one-of-a-kind capability to take action during the last 9 years has put 4 title banners within the Chase Middle rafters, however even he'll admit that the NBA’s tables are slanted in the direction of offense.
If Sacramento assaults the way in which I anticipate, it's going to put Inexperienced in numerous two-on-one conditions within the lane.
Whereas Inexperienced will win greater than his justifiable share of these conditions — he’s simply that good — he’s additionally liable to finish up in foul hassle.
And when Inexperienced is in foul hassle, the Warriors’ defensive sport plan goes out the window. In these conditions, the Warriors usually go to a zone protection, which is straightforward pickings for the Kings.
Sure, the playoffs is perhaps a special beast than the common season, and the Warriors’ protection ought to be improved heading into the “actual season.” Nonetheless, on this collection, the Kings are geared up with Fox, Sabonis, and all of the motion and shooters round them to take care of their offensive output.
The worst-case situation? The Kings run off-ball screens with Jordan Poole’s man when he’s on the court docket. That’s two simple factors, each time.
Now, the Warriors’ protection — with Inexperienced main the way in which — can do sufficient to cease the Kings from going for 120 factors each sport. Payton, Looney, and Jonathan Kuminga can be massive components there.
And whereas the Kings don’t current any actual points for the Warriors when the Dubs have the ball, Sacramento’s offense — even on an “off” day — ought to set a excessive bar for Golden State to overhaul each sport.
So can Golden State overtake that bar 4 occasions in seven tries?
Completely.
Nevertheless it’s tougher with out home-court benefit.
Sacramento is perhaps a bus experience away, however it’s nonetheless a highway atmosphere for the Warriors. Saturday’s Recreation 1 would be the greatest sporting occasion within the capital metropolis in a era.
I do know the Dubs have gained a highway sport in 27 straight playoff collection, however Golden State additionally gained 11 highway video games all season, with solely two coming towards playoff groups. In each wins, their opponents have been with out their high participant(s).
That gained’t be the case on this collection.
Sure, nobody, save for his or her laudable die-hard followers, expects the Kings to gentle the beam atop the Golden 1 Middle 4 occasions towards the Warriors. However Sacramento would require the Dubs to play their A-game on offense and protection.
Which means restricted fouling and sound rotations on protection, incisive motion and restricted turnovers on offense.
It may occur. Completely. The Kings’ greatest is absolutely good.
The Warriors’ greatest is healthier, however after the whole lot you’ve seen from the Warriors this season, are you prepared to wager on that greatest exhibiting up 4 occasions out of seven?