Utah State Aggies guard Steven Ashworth (3) celebrates after the Aggies defeated Boise State within the semifinals of the Mountain West Convention Basketball Event at UNLV’s Thomas and Mack Middle in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 11, 2023. Utah Sate gained 72-62, Scott G Winterton, Deseret Information
One of many early video games on Thursday’s opening slate of NCAA event first-round matchups may very well be essentially the most aggressive.
That’s the consensus from nationwide specialists who've talked concerning the matchup between No. 10 seed Utah State and No. 7 Missouri, who play Thursday morning at 11:40 a.m. MT.
The Aggies want to win their first NCAA event recreation since 2001 and are on a nine-game shedding streak within the NCAAs.
There are a number of media retailers, although, that consider Utah State can pull off the upset of their SEC opponent.
Right here’s a sampling of what a number of nationwide retailers mentioned concerning the first-round matchup:
FiveThirtyEight
Louis Zatzman writes that Utah State matches up effectively with Missouri, growing their possibilities to advance within the first spherical in Sacramento, and that USU has one of the best probability of a decrease seed to earn a first-round upset.
“FiveThirtyEight’s mannequin provides the No. 10 seed Utah State Aggies (26-8) one of the best probability of a first-round victory of any underdog within the event (64 %) — and that may very well be as a result of they’re merely a greater group than their opponent, the No. 7 seed Missouri Tigers (24-9),” Zatzman wrote.
“In keeping with Bart-Torvik.com’s energy rankings, the Aggies are the Twenty fifth-strongest group, whereas the Tigers are solely 56th. Utah had the 14th-ranked offense, led by elite-shooting junior Steven Ashworth.”
ESPN
Jay Bilas highlighted Utah State’s offensive prowess as one cause the Aggies can hold round — and beat — the Tigers, although USU’s incapacity to power turnovers (below 12 per recreation) may damage them.
He predicts an Aggie victory.
“Each groups can shoot and rating from deep. Utah State could have issues with Kobe Brown, however Missouri can get unfold out by Utah State,” Bilas wrote. “I just like the Aggies on this one. Keep in mind, Ryan Odom led UMBC to the one win, ever, by a No. 16 seed. Profitable as a ten seed must be slightly simpler.”
ESPN colleague Seth Greenberg predicts a Missouri victory.
“I like Missouri just a bit bit due to Kobe Brown — he performs the 5 and he’s a brutal, brutal matchup,” Greenberg mentioned.
The 6-foot-8 Brown averages 15.8 factors, 6.3 rebounds and a couple of.5 assists per recreation this season.
The Athletic
Seth Davis favors Utah State on this recreation, reiterating that the Aggies’ type is an efficient matchup towards Missouri.
“When you like buckets (and I do!), that is the sport for you. Utah State ranks fifth within the nation in 3-point share (39.3), they’re tenth in assists per recreation (16.9), and their finest participant, 6-1 junior guard Steven Ashworth, ranks third within the nation in 3-point share (44.3) and 14th in made 3s per recreation (3.2). The Aggies’ protection isn’t dangerous (68th in effectivity) they usually’re thirty sixth within the nation in defensive rebound share,” Davis wrote.
“That’s a very good profile to carry towards a Missouri squad that likes to press, push the tempo, and take possibilities defensively (10.3 steals per recreation, third-most within the nation). The Tigers are additionally 178th within the county in defensive effectivity, so the Aggies ought to have loads of clear appears to be like on the rim.”
NCAA.com
Andy Katz, who talked about Utah State as one of many prime upset choose prospects within the first spherical, picked the Tigers in his predictions for all the NCAA event.
“Utah State, a group I didn’t assume ought to get in over Rutgers, and I don’t assume they’re going to final lengthy, both,” Katz mentioned. “I really like Kobe Brown and (coach) Dennis Gates have completed with the Tigers. Missouri advances.”
CBS Sports activities
David Cobb took a distinct strategy — as a substitute of selecting winners, he ranked every first-round matchup from worst to finest.
“Each these groups hoist a ton of 3-pointers and make greater than 9 per recreation, and Utah State’s Steven Ashworth is among the finest perimeter marksmen within the recreation,” Cobb wrote. “Whereas Missouri has an edge in athleticism and forces a ton of turnovers, the Tigers additionally permit opponents to shoot 35.4% from 3-point vary. This one may function a ton of factors and momentum swings.”
247 Sports activities
Kevin Flaherty not solely likes Utah State on this matchup, he identifies the Aggies as a group that's able to a Cinderella-story kind run.
“Missouri drew probably the worst attainable first-round matchup, because the Tigers rank fifth in defensive turnover price however battle in every single place else defensively, and Utah State is a superb passing group. It doesn’t cease there, as Utah State has the No. 13 offense, an ideal backcourt and deadly taking pictures, coming in at twelfth in efficient area objective share,” Flaherty wrote.
:However Utah State can be a bit higher than its fame defensively, the place the Aggies do a strong job of working groups off the 3-point line, limiting straightforward 2s and successful on the defensive glass. The Aggies are literally favored by KenPom to defeat Missouri, and Utah State is able to persevering with its run if the Aggies are hitting pictures.”