The Pac-12’s late-season salvage operation seems to have labored as school basketball prepares for essentially the most anticipated day of the yr.
Throughout stretches of a decidedly subpar season, the convention regarded prefer it may ship simply two groups (UCLA and Arizona) to the NCAA Event.
However strong finishes by USC and Arizona State have improved the outlook for Choice Sunday, with no less than a kind of groups — and maybe each — sneaking into the 68-team area.
Not that 4 bids could be a supply of delight. However it’s exponentially higher than three.
Earlier than we dive into the at-large locks and contenders, three reminders concerning the NCAA choice committee’s course of:
— Total report, convention affiliation and convention report are irrelevant.
— The committee makes use of each subjective and goal standards, with the latter targeted on NET rating, high quality wins, unhealthy losses, non-conference energy of schedule and efficiency away from residence.
— Groups are evaluated towards one another in clusters of 4, six and eight within the resume scrubbing course of. These not voted into the at-large area are held over for consideration towards one other group of candidates, and so forth, till the slots are crammed.
(NET rankings by way of Friday. Non-conference schedule energy taken from Pomeroy effectivity rankings.)
UCLA
NET rating: No. 3
Non-conference SOS: No. 148
The nitty gritty: The Bruins performed a number of difficult non-conference video games, personal eight Quadrant I wins and, crucially, haven't any unhealthy losses. The committee will assess the impression of Jaylen Clark’s season-ending harm however use UCLA’s efficiency with out him within the Pac-12 match to information the choice. The Bruins are in rivalry for a No. 1 seed however can not match Kansas, Alabama or Purdue for high quality wins due to the paucity of alternatives in Pac-12 play. The end result of the Massive Ten match (with Purdue) might issue into UCLA’s placement.
Our name: No. 2 seed
Arizona
NET rating: No. 10
Non-conference SOS: No. 78
The nitty gritty: The Wildcats have a bevy of elite non-conference wins (Tennessee, Indiana, Creighton and San Diego State), however we query whether or not a No. 1 seed is feasible due to the character of their losses. Arizona has dropped 5 video games towards groups which are both on the NCAA bubble or haven't any likelihood to make the at-large area. Put one other means: The Wildcats’ 4 Quadrant II defeats are greater than any group within the prime 40 of the NET rankings, which undermines their declare for a spot on the highest seed line. Like UCLA, they need to be positioned in Sacramento or Denver for the opening weekend.
Our name: No. 2 seed
USC
NET rating: No. 50
Non-conference SOS: No. 121
The nitty gritty: We've got reached the bubble portion of the Pac-12 outlook, and it begins with the Trojans. Many NCAA projections, together with ESPN’s Bracketology, view USC as a No. 10 seed. We aren’t so positive. The Trojans have simply three Quadrant I wins and just one street/neutral-court victory over a group that would make the at-large area (Arizona State). In addition they have a foul residence loss (Florida Gulf Coast) and a foul street loss (Oregon State). Their standing might be a bit extra tenuous than it seems.
Our name: No. 11 seed
Arizona State
NET rating: No. 66
Non-conference SOS: No. 131
The nitty gritty: The Solar Devils are a captivating case and might be one of many final groups within the match … or one of many first ignored. They've two unhealthy losses (Texas Southern and San Francisco, each on the street) however their physique of labor in any other case is pretty spectacular: 12 wins away from residence — USC solely has seven — plus neutral-court victories over Creighton, VCU and Michigan along with that momentous street win over Arizona. We suspect ASU and USC will likely be grouped collectively sooner or later within the committee’s scrubbing course of. You can also make the case ASU is extra deserving of a bid.
Our name: No. 11 seed
Oregon
NET rating: No. 47
Non-conference SOS: No. 29
The nitty gritty: Oregon is on the unsuitable aspect of the bubble however, even with 14 losses, not essentially off the bubble. Why? As a result of the Geese performed a troublesome non-conference schedule (Houston, UConn and Michigan State, to call three opponents), they usually have just one loss in Quadrant III and IV video games. That mentioned, they lack high quality wins and are extraordinarily inconsistent, which is able to issue into any subjective evaluation. For all their bodily items, the Geese haven’t regarded like a tournament-worthy group for various fleeting moments.
Our name: No bid
*** Observe: The projections will likely be up to date following the Pac-12 championship sport if vital.
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