The Hotline mailbag is revealed each Friday. Ship inquiries to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com and embody ‘mailbag’ within the topic line — or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.
Please be aware: A number of matters associated to Pac-12 media rights and enlargement can be answered individually, in forthcoming articles.
Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
What’s the take care of Fox? — @Buffaloakk
Good query: What is the take care of Fox?
This week alone, there have been various experiences about Fox’s involvement within the Pac-12 media negotiations — none of them mutually unique: Fox may be involved in a package deal of Pac-12 video games however not actively concerned at this level.
The scenario displays simply how nuanced media negotiations may be and simply how secretive the Pac-12’s course of has been.
Our view hasn’t modified: Fox has loads of Saturday night time broadcast home windows on FS1 which are at the moment dedicated to Pac-12 content material and have to be crammed within the subsequent contract cycle.
Certain, it may slot Mountain West matchups and Brigham Younger residence video games into that window. However the community assuredly would need the choice for Pac-12 video games (on the proper value, after all).
That stated, there isn't a indication Fox needs a good portion of Pac-12 stock — that it's going to, or has, bid on the Tier 1 (premium) video games.
These negotiations probably contain ESPN, Apple and Amazon.
Extra broadly, Fox has performed an important function in shifting the scenario so far.
As most followers are conscious, the community orchestrated the Huge Ten’s raid of USC and UCLA, in keeping with … properly, in keeping with each media business supply we've got. (One sarcastically referred to the Huge Ten as “Fox Inc.”)
It additionally has impacted the course of occasions for the Pac-12 relative to the Huge 12, with an enormous benefit to the latter.
Why? Fox has a longstanding contractual relationship with each conferences. Within the case of the Huge 12, Fox misplaced the premier manufacturers when Texas and Oklahoma bolted for the SEC, which has an all-in contract with ESPN.
Because of this, Fox wanted Huge 12 stock to retain a presence in Texas.
With the Pac-12, the scenario is reversed. Whereas Texas and Oklahoma went away from a convention aligned with Fox, the L.A. faculties jumped right into a Fox convention.
Due to its broadcast partnership with the Huge Ten, the community can preserve its presence within the huge Southern California media market. It saved what it needed, in different phrases, and has little motivation to keep up a significant stake within the Pac-12.
It needed to associate with the Huge 12 to maintain a foothold in Teas.
It doesn’t must associate with the Pac-12 to maintain its flag in California.
So in some respects, Fox bludgeoned the Pac-12 twice.
Which brings us to a different situation the Hotline has contemplated for months.
The Pac-12’s present contracts with Fox and ESPN gave the networks a 90-day unique negotiating window with the convention to hash out a brand new media deal.
We all know that window opened in July and closed in early October.
We additionally know that the Pac-12 was unable to extricate itself from that window till the 90 days ended.
And we are able to assume that Fox, as a result of it already had what it needed — the L.A. market — didn't make a critical supply for Pac-12 stock.
Three weeks after the Pac-12’s unique negotiating window ended, the Huge 12 introduced an early renewal of its settlement with Fox and ESPN.
We might like to know the main points of conversations between Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff and the Fox executives.
Sadly, that facet of the saga probably will stay a thriller eternally.
Following as much as a great previous article, you projected a $6 million hole (per faculty) between the Pac-12 and Huge 12 distributions for the 2023 fiscal 12 months. For 2025 and past, what are your projections? Do you see a continued $6 million or extra hole? — @vakaviti
Sure, the Huge 12 has already been distributing more money to its faculties than the Pac-12 — some extent that many have missed throughout this saga.
The Huge 12’s regular-season broadcast contracts with ESPN and Fox spin off extra money than the Pac-12 offers, and the Huge 12’s complete income for every faculty, which incorporates NCAA Match and the soccer postseason, is bigger, as properly.
Nevertheless it’s too early to estimate the variations within the subsequent contract cycle.
As soon as we see the Pac-12’s media rights deal, and whether or not there's unequal sharing of postseason income — that might be a sensible transfer on a number of fronts, by the best way — the Hotline will supply new projections.
Would the Pac-12 ever contemplate a Friday night time doubleheader and simply personal that house? Together with non-conference video games, it might require two or three video games per group (assuming 12 members), so it’s a giant dedication. — @Smittytheclownn
In all probability too massive, in our opinion.
The Friday night time window has worth, and it might definitely have worth to Amazon popping out of the ‘Thursday Night time Soccer’ broadcast.
However even when we ignore the non-conference piece and easily deal with league play, a Friday doubleheader over not less than 9 weeks would imply 18 video games — 18 out of the 54.
That’s an enormous share, particularly on condition that Friday nights aren’t essentially straightforward for followers or the campuses.
We suspect the media deal will embody a Friday package deal of video games, however just one every week — and possibly simply six or eight by way of the course of the season.
Might it's doable to maneuver Pac-12 Community content material to whichever streamer will get the rights beginning subsequent 12 months and never wait? — @CoachMorrowosu
I don’t see how that’s doable given the contracts.
The Pac-12 created a coterminous scenario: The distribution offers with Fox, ESPN and the Pac-12 Community’s companions (Comcast, DISH, and many others.) all expire on the identical time, in the summertime of 2024.
It’s a sensible technique — one of many few issues former commissioner Larry Scott bought proper on the media entrance — however our sense is the offers are unbreakable except the companions agree. And there’s no signal of that.
If Huge 12 commissioner Brett Yormark needs his convention coast-to-coast, the Pac-12 needs to remain collectively and nobody needs to be neglected within the chilly, why can’t everybody drop their swords and merge into the BigPac and get on with life? — @HazzardCoEng
The Hotline advocated years in the past for the Pac-12 and Huge 12 to create a partnership and argued once more for that technique final summer season.
It will have enhanced media worth, created a coast-to-coast product and strengthened each conferences towards defections by the highest manufacturers.
However at this level, the possibilities of a partnership or merger are microscopic.
Dollars and egos all the time trump frequent sense.
Keep in mind years in the past how conferences carried out massive exit charges to maintain groups from defecting? What does that imply for the defections of USC and UCLA and doable additions of San Diego State and SMU? — Doug Ware
To the perfect of our information, USC and UCLA will not be paying any exit charges. Their departure tracks with the top of the Pac-12’s present media rights settlement, so that they received’t face a monetary penalty.
My assumption is that any new members must conform to the phrases of the following contract.
What these phrases are, we can not say. Nevertheless it’s protected to imagine exit charges and penalties are a part of the continuing dialogue on the presidential degree.
If SMU and/or San Diego State be part of the Pac-12, do they get the cash from UCLA’s NCAA match run this 12 months? — @lilcmac5
That can be sorted out within the negotiations, and we are able to supply a morsel of perception momentarily.
First, let’s make sure that all readers perceive how the March Insanity income generated by UCLA and USC can be dealt with.
Every recreation performed equals one unit within the NCAA’s distribution formulation. The items are carried ahead for six years and have a greenback worth that will increase yearly (this 12 months: $350,000).
The one unit earned by USC and the three items earned by UCLA this month will generate income for the Pac-12 beginning subsequent spring.
The Pac-12’s enterprise mannequin requires an equal sharing of all NCAA income, however the Bruins and Trojans received’t hold their shares as soon as they enter the Huge Ten in the summertime of 2024. That money will stay with the convention, divided among the many membership.
Any new members must negotiate phrases of inclusion, with income splits undoubtedly atop the listing of points.
Neither SMU nor San Diego State would obtain a full share, however would they be given half-shares or quarter-shares?
And would their splits improve over the course of the media contract?
That's all very a lot to be decided.
Is there a state of affairs the place among the second-level Pac-12 soccer rivalries would possibly survive in some restricted vogue, or are the remaining faculties extra prone to decline any future video games with USC and UCLA? — John Vietor
I think the California faculties will schedule one another. The Bay Space groups want ticket-selling alternatives, and the L.A. groups want non-conference video games with restricted journey.
However each faculty, from Tucson to Pullman, ought to try and schedule the Trojans and Bruins.
It can turn into more and more troublesome to get premier matchups, particularly with Huge Ten groups reluctant to make non-conference journeys to the West Coast and with Brigham Younger’s availability restricted by its transfer into the Huge 12.
In some methods, the L.A. faculties will turn into the brand new BYU, occasions two.
Is it irritating so that you can report sourced details about the Pac-12 media negotiations solely to have nationwide media individuals report conflicting info? — @NewsManLou
Only a few individuals are conscious of the main points of the negotiations; the convention has saved the circle extraordinarily tight.
Because of this, the Hotline has taken nice care to differentiate between details (sourced reporting) and opinion (our greatest guesses, so to talk).
I'm not conscious of a particular occasion wherein the Hotline has reported one thing as truth, solely to have it refuted by a nationwide media outlet.
Anytime the Hotline publishes opinion items or makes an attempt to forecast occasions, it’s executed with the understanding that we may very well be confirmed incorrect.
That stated, for the previous eight months, we've got maintained the next:
— Pac-12 survival is the almost definitely end result however not assured.
— Pac-12 enlargement is extra probably than shifting ahead as a 10-school convention.
— The Huge Ten door is closed, probably by way of the rest of the last decade.
— The 4 Corners faculties would favor to stay within the Pac-12 than transfer to the Huge 12.
— The Pac-12 and Huge 12 media valuations are comparable; neither gives a transformational benefit.
We consider every facet of that framework stays in place.
You stated again in February that each week after mid-March of the Pac-12 not having a media deal in place drops the survival odds by half some extent. Figuring out what you do now, do you continue to maintain to this perception? — @SoCal_Pony
Our basic view is the next:
In terms of realignment, time and safety transfer inversely: The longer a media rights deal takes to finish, the larger the chance of an sudden prevalence — and sudden occurrences are not often useful.
Our odds for Pac-12 survival have dropped to 4.5 factors (from 5.5), which ought to come as no shock to anybody who learn our early-March predictions.
We opted towards setting the road a half-point decrease — not less than for the second — due to the general public feedback from a number of presidents over the previous two weeks.
If the scenario appeared actually dire behind the scenes, the convention, which has been extremely disciplined in its messaging, wouldn't have despatched them out with speaking factors.
Might commissioner George Kliavkoff have misinterpret the state of the negotiations, leaving the convention uncovered to an enormous draw back shock and, probably, extinction?
That state of affairs appears unlikely however, as soon as once more, can't be ignored till a contract is permitted.
I agree that there's zero likelihood the presidents would have expressed solidarity and optimism except they had been getting optimistic updates from Kliavkoff. However what degree of element do you suppose they’re truly getting? — @bdbigelow89
Based mostly on feedback made by Arizona’s Robert Robbins, the presidents hadn’t seen remaining gives as of early final week.
Might extra particulars have been offered on the Pac-12 assembly on Wednesday? In fact. However we'd warning readers to remember the fact that a suggestion and a signed contract are very various things.
Actually, the largest obstacles is likely to be the main points, not the dollars.
The colleges are keenly involved in how a lot content material could be on linear and streaming platforms, the variety of night time soccer video games and the in-season choice course of.
That remaining piece is essential: If the kickoff occasions are set properly upfront, followers could make plans to attend and faculties can develop advertising and marketing methods, thereby growing gate income and probably offsetting a barely decrease greenback determine (from the media rights contract) than desired.
Don't underestimate how a lot the colleges worth an enhanced game-day expertise — and the function that situation is taking part in within the negotiations.
What alcoholic beverage is finest, beer or wine? — @KoolEconomics
The Hotline hasn’t taken a sip of alcohol in years. And we by no means, ever preferred wine.
It tastes even worse than Pepsi.
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