As “The Candidate,” the quintessential political film, closes, a younger Invoice McKay (Robert Redford) has simply received one among California’s U.S. Senate seats and reasonably shocked, he takes his marketing campaign supervisor (Peter Boyle) apart and asks him a query: “What can we do now?”
The identical query may very well be posed to Gavin Newsom, who has handily received his second — and final — time period as California’s governor.
What does he do now?
Would he merely serve out his second time period, increasing his campaign for a carbon-free financial system and implementing his experimental approaches to California’s social ills? They embrace “group faculties” to make neighborhood college facilities for well being and welfare companies, “Care Courtroom” to compel the critically mentally unwell to simply accept therapy, and “CalAIM” to rework the state’s medical care system for the poor right into a “entire particular person” program.
Newsom has pledged to finish his second time period, insisting he has “subzero curiosity” in operating for the presidency, even when Joe Biden doesn’t search one other time period in 2024. Nonetheless, Newsom has additionally devoted a lot of his time and a few of his hefty marketing campaign treasury in latest months to constructing a nationwide picture, saying he needs to set an instance for his get together of aggressive opposition to Republicans.
Regardless of Newsom’s frequent denials of presidential ambitions, the nationwide political media and plenty of Democratic Occasion figures assume that he’s laying the groundwork for a White Home marketing campaign, both in 2024 or 2028, two years after his governorship ends.
Certainly, it’s tough to think about that having spent practically half his life patiently climbing the political ladder — from San Francisco metropolis fee appointee in 1996 to a seat on town’s Board of Supervisors, then seven years as mayor, eight years in obscurity as lieutenant governor and at last the governorship in 2018 — Newsom would merely resume managing his wine and restaurant enterprise.
It’s additionally tough to think about that he would accept some lesser political function, similar to a congressman or cupboard appointee. He has a large ego and a penchant for pursuing “massive furry audacious objectives” such because the aforementioned experimental overhauls of schooling, psychological well being and medical care companies — albeit with a spotty document of success so far. And that perspective requires excessive workplace.
Retiring from politics after ending his time period or searching for the presidency are two choices, however there’s additionally a possible third — operating for the U.S. Senate in 2024 ought to Dianne Feinstein retire after holding her seat for 32 years, or segueing into the seat if Feinstein offers it up earlier.
Two of the choices — operating for president or the Senate in 2024 — clearly rely upon whether or not Biden, who turns 80 this month, and/or an 89-year-old Feinstein are able to retire, and their choices could hinge on how this 12 months’s congressional and senatorial elections prove as soon as all the votes are counted.
If Republicans take both the Home or the Senate, or each, their retirements would develop into extra doubtless. Democratic activists might blame Biden’s low recognition for the losses and demand that he step apart for a youthful and extra commanding determine, and Feinstein, already below hearth from progressives, wouldn't need to be relegated to the Senate minority after so a few years within the majority.
The query that a cinematic politician posed 50 years in the past — what can we do now? — would develop into a tough actuality for Newsom ought to Biden and/or Feinstein choose out.
In politics, as in high-level sports activities, timing is every part. Jerry Brown, Newsom’s quasi-uncle and predecessor as governor, blew his probabilities of turning into president with three badly timed White Home campaigns.
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.