Immediate response to Pac-12 developments on the sphere …
1. When Saturdays are boring …
One other weekend and not using a main upset to be discovered as the highest 4 groups churned to victories.
Oregon, UCLA, USC and Utah every scored greater than 40 factors, gained by a mixed complete of 84 factors and improved to 22-3 in convention play.
Their solely losses are to one another.
Towards everybody else, they're 19-0.
Not because the 2016 season — the final time the Pac-12 despatched a staff to the playoff — has the convention skilled such a top-heavy season.
And Week 11 might convey extra of the identical with all 4 at house.
Three can be large favorites with USC dealing with Colorado, UCLA welcoming Arizona and Utah internet hosting Stanford for what may very well be an epic beatdown.
Solely Oregon, which performs rival Washington in Eugene, has a major problem.
If all 4 survive, then a momentous Nov. 19 awaits with Utah visiting Oregon and USC taking part in UCLA within the Rose Bowl.
From our vantage level, that will represent the most important, boldest Saturday doubleheader the convention has skilled within the growth period.
The beginning instances for each showdowns are anticipated to be positioned on six-day holds by ESPN and Fox, that means we gained’t know the kickoff info till the conclusion of the Nov. 12 video games.
2. Tuesdays are enjoyable
High-heavy conferences don’t present many thrills on the sphere, however they produce sterling outcomes when the School Soccer Playoff rankings are launched.
The Pac-12 had 5 groups within the preliminary rankings: No. 8 Oregon, No. 9 USC, No. 12 UCLA, No. 14 Utah and No. 23 Oregon State. (The SEC and ACC additionally had 5 ranked groups.)
At worst, the highest 4 will maintain their floor for the second set, which can be revealed on Tuesday night. And Washington might very properly substitute the Beavers because the fifth entry after their head-to-head victory on Friday night time.
If the highest 4 are victorious in Week 11, the Pac-12 doubtless could have three top-10 groups for the mega-Saturday showdowns on Nov. 19.
However let’s make one contrarian level, as a result of it can't be ignored and will issue into the playoff dialogue a couple of weeks from now:
One of the best non-conference victory produced up to now by any member of that quartet is USC’s win over Fresno State, which is 5-4, or Oregon’s win over Brigham Younger, which is 5-5.
3. Scoreboard watching
This weekend unfolded completely for the Pac-12’s playoff hopes, not solely with the intra-conference outcomes but in addition the scores of video games throughout the nation.
Oregon received the end result it wanted with Georgia beating Tennessee 27-13.
No, it wasn’t practically as dangerous because the 49-3 plastering Georgia dealt the Geese in Week One, but it surely might need been decisive sufficient to take away the Vols as an impediment within the occasion Oregon finishes as a one-loss Pac-12 champion.
And in that regard, Alabama’s loss at LSU — the Crimson Tide’s second defeat of the season — was vital.
One of many chief threats to Oregon’s playoff pursuit is the SEC inserting two groups within the area. That’s a lot much less doubtless if everybody not named Georgia has at the least two losses.
However these weren’t the one fortuitous outcomes for the Pac-12. Notre Dame’s resounding 35-14 victory over Clemson offered a double-dose of assist.
It elevated Notre Dame’s profile forward of the regular-season finale towards USC, thereby including a resume-boosting alternative for the Trojans.
And since it marked the primary loss for Clemson, the ACC can't produce an undefeated champion that assuredly would have boxed out the Pac-12 winner.
At this level, there are 4 apparent obstacles standing between a one-loss Pac-12 champion and the playoff:
— Georgia with fewer than two losses.
— The Ohio State-Michigan winner as an undefeated Huge Ten champ.
— TCU as an undefeated Huge 12 champ.
— Mississippi as a one-loss SEC champ.
Past that, no staff would have a transparent benefit over a 12-1 champion from the Pac-12.
4. Oregon’s stretch run
Two issues are equally true concerning the Geese (8-1) since their face plant towards Georgia:
— They've dominated the competitors and appeared like a playoff-worthy staff.
— They've, for probably the most half, confronted second-rate competitors.
Listed here are Oregon’s eight victims and their present data:
Japanese Washington (2-7/FCS)
Brigham Younger (5-5)
Washington State (5-4)
Stanford (3-6)
Arizona (3-6)
UCLA (8-1)
Cal (3-6)
Colorado (1-8)
That’s a mixed report of 30-43 and never precisely a set of opponents that will impress the choice committee (apart from UCLA).
However the stretch run will take a look at the Geese:
vs. Washington (7-2)
vs. Utah (7-2)
at Oregon State (6-3)
Whole: 20-7
Then add a top-tier opponent within the Pac-12 championship sport, and the Geese will deserve critical consideration … if they run the desk.
5. The USC issue
The Hotline’s evaluation hasn’t modified, regardless of the (comprehensible) consideration heaped on the Geese by the nationwide media:
The Trojans, not Oregon or UCLA, are the Pac-12’s finest probability to interrupt the five-year playoff drought.
We've three causes to help that opinion:
— Model bias.
As a lot as the choice committee leans on knowledge and endeavors to take an goal take a look at the contenders, bias is inevitable.
The massive manufacturers have a bonus, and USC is an enormous model, particularly with coach Lincoln Riley and quarterback Caleb Williams.
— Oregon is a model, as properly, however the Geese are carrying a 49-3 stain on their resume that can't be ignored.
Possibly the outcome isn’t a deal-breaker for the choice committee, but it surely definitely makes Oregon’s case a bit messy.
And UCLA’s resume (because the convention champion) would come with a 15-point loss to a staff with a 46-point loss, plus a pillowy gentle non-conference schedule.
As Pac-12 champs, the Trojans wouldn't carry the stain. They'd have crushed the Geese or just not confronted them, and each choices create a cleaner case for playoff inclusion.
USC’s solely loss can be the 43-42 thriller at Utah, which gained’t lead to a downgrade of any type.
— The stretch run.
With the intention to end 12-1 and declare the convention title, the Trojans would end with wins over Notre Dame and two ranked opponents (UCLA and the Pac-12 title sport opponent).
That’s extra prone to impress the committee than Oregon’s stretch run (Utah, Oregon State and the Pac-12 title sport) or UCLA’s stretch run (USC, Cal and the Pac-12 title sport).
Notre Dame nonetheless carries weight, particularly after the victory over Clemson.
For these causes, we consider USC would have the cleanest, strongest case.
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