Not per week goes by with out information, quasi-news or non-news associated to the Pac-12’s media rights negotiations and combat for survival.
Right here’s the Huge Ten, reportedly assembly with Oregon and Washington representatives to evaluate “compatibility.”
There’s the Huge 12, asserting a media rights deal sooner than anticipated.
Right here’s the College of California Board of Regents, debating the deserves of UCLA’s transfer to the Huge Ten.
There’s a well-liked media character, reporting on imminent Pac-12 growth.
The one entity not making information concerning the Pac-12’s future is the Pac-12.
Except for occasional feedback by commissioner George Kliavkoff — and people are designed to supply context, not reveal precise information — the convention has been radio silent because the momentous mid-summer day when USC and UCLA bolted for the Huge Ten.
However away from public view, Kliavkoff and his advisers are plowing ahead in pursuit of a media contract that may make or break the Pac-12’s future.
The Hotline has written dozens of tales on the subject over the previous 4 months, together with the function Pac-12 Networks infrastructure might play in saving the convention, our imaginative and prescient for the way forward for the game and a proposal to signal an all-in cope with Amazon.
However with the method nearer to the top than the start, this looks as if the appropriate time to step again and assess the fundamentals.
*** The Huge Ten risk
The chief impediment to Pac-12 survival has at all times been one other spherical of Huge Ten growth that targets Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal.
We don't consider the formation of a Huge Ten western division is imminent, for 3 causes:
— Huge Ten presidents don’t have the urge for food to destroy the Pac-12.
— Huge Ten media companions don’t have sufficient money obtainable to help 4 extra faculties.
— Remaining West Coast choices don’t carry media valuations (as a collective) that make them accretive for the Huge Ten.
To be clear: Nothing is official till (until) the Pac-12 presidents approve a media contract and signal a grant-of-rights settlement.
However the Huge Ten seems prone to stand down this fall, leaving Oregon, Washington and the Bay Space faculties with no choice however to stay within the Pac-12.
(If you happen to’re pondering the Huge Ten’s long-haul technique, take into account the potential for growth into Florida. It’s the third-most populous state, and the Huge Ten’s major media accomplice, Fox, doesn’t have a foothold. As a substitute, the Sunshine State is ESPN territory via the ACC and SEC.)
*** The Huge 12 risk
This has at all times been a secondary problem for the Pac-12.
We consider Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah favor to remain within the Pac-12 — their alumni bases are on the West Coast, in spite of everything — slightly than be part of a convention rooted within the Southern Plains.
That calculation would change if the income disparity have been transformative, however all indicators level to the Pac-12 signing a media contract similar to the Huge 12’s not too long ago reported deal of $31.66 million per college per yr.
The Huge 12 left cash on the desk by renewing its partnerships with ESPN and Fox slightly than going to the open market in 2024.
However the transfer was based mostly on a need for safety, binding the eight persevering with members and maintaining the 4 newcomers out of play (in case the Pac-12 developed a wandering eye).
*** The UCLA issue
Why hasn’t the Pac-12 moved rapidly to signal a media contract?
We consider the convention is ready on the College of California Board of Regents to make a last willpower on UCLA’s deliberate transfer.
The regents have the authority to reverse the choice made by chancellor Gene Block, however that end result appears much less seemingly than forcing UCLA to subsidize Cal (for misplaced income) or doing completely nothing.
Readability ought to come Nov. 17, when the regents are scheduled to take up the problem.
*** The timing
Kliavkoff is anticipated to current a media deal to the presidents for approval inside the subsequent month, in line with sources conversant in the state of affairs.
Basically, the method will acquire pace as soon as the UC regents meet subsequent week. (Finishing any settlement with out understanding UCLA’s destiny can be silly.)
Remaining approval won't be fast and clear given the differing long-haul objectives for the assorted universities. However in the end, an settlement — the ten faculties shifting ahead collectively — is the most definitely end result.
*** The dollars
The $30-something million query is how carefully the Pac-12’s media contract will evaluate to the Huge 12’s deal — and the way far it will likely be from matching the Huge Ten’s settlement, which is believed to be value $1 billion yearly, or $62.5 million per college.
If the Pac-12 contract falls wanting the Huge 12’s deal, it received’t be by a lot.
Right here’s the problem:
The Huge 12 took a below-market worth when it determined to resume early with ESPN and Fox, thereby decreasing the valuation flooring and doubtlessly limiting the Pac-12’s upside.
We consider there are three outcomes for Pac-12 faculties on the income entrance:
— Approaching the Huge 12 ($29 million-to-$31 million per yr)
— Barely surpassing the Huge 12 ($32 million-to-$35 million per yr)
— Simply exceeding the Huge 12 ($36 million-to-$40 million per college)
(Observe: These estimates assume UCLA doesn't return and are just for broadcast rights. The NCAA Event and School Soccer Playoff account for roughly one-third of every league’s whole annual income.)
The opposite important part for the Pac-12 is publicity.
A decade in the past, the convention chased the cash (from ESPN and Fox) on the expense of publicity, and the athletic administrators, whose recommendation was ignored, have been stewing about it for years.
Our greatest guess is Kliavkoff goals for a mix of income and visibility and crafts a three-pronged settlement with ESPN, Fox and Amazon.
Additionally, don’t low cost Apple being concerned in some type or trend.
*** Growth plans
Opposite to a report Monday by media character Dan Patrick, the Pac-12 shouldn't be providing membership to San Diego State this week.
Any resolution on growth can be made after the media rights settlement is signed.
In different phrases, the convention is weeks, and maybe months away from solidifying its future membership construction.
Whereas San Diego State is smart on a number of ranges and is the Pac-12 growth goal talked about most frequently, the Hotline believes there's equally sturdy curiosity in including SMU.
The Mustangs meet the Pac-12’s educational profile, have gobs of cash, present entry to an untapped media market and will improve recruiting efforts in talent-rich Texas.
If we have been handicapping the growth panorama, SMU can be a co-favorite with SDSU.
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