One other Saturday has come and gone with out a shakeup within the Pac-12 race, however this Tuesday brings a serious change within the Hotline’s bowl outlook for the convention.
We're projecting Oregon to succeed in the School Soccer Playoff and UCLA to fill the emptiness within the Rose Bowl.
Enable us to clarify in 5 straightforward steps.
The first step: The street forward.
The ends in the SEC and ACC final weekend had been game-changers for the Pac-12, and Oregon particularly:
— Notre Dame’s victory over Clemson means the ACC received’t produce an undefeated champion.
— Alabama’s loss to LSU means the Crimson Tide will carry two defeats — doubtless a playoff demise knell — into the ultimate weekend.
— Tennessee’s loss to Georgia means the Volunteers will end as a one-loss workforce with out a division title.
In different phrases, three vital obstacles have been cleared from the trail of a one-loss Pac-12 champion.
Step two: Inside affairs.
We recognized Oregon as the perfect workforce within the Pac-12 a month in the past, and nothing has compelled a reassessment.
If something, the Geese have solidified their standing because the clear frontrunner.
They're pretty much as good offensively, and much better defensively, than each USC and UCLA.
In the meantime, Utah merely isn’t wholesome sufficient to play on the stage required to beat the Geese, both on Nov. 19 in Eugene or Dec. 2 in Las Vegas.
Step three: One night time in Vegas
After watching the Bruins and Trojans week after week, the Hotline has concluded UCLA is the higher workforce and may win the crosstown showdown on Nov. 19. (But it surely’s shut, as a result of each are severely flawed on protection.)
Because of this, we anticipate the next information on the high of the convention:
Oregon: 9-0
UCLA: 8-1
Utah: 7-2
USC: 7-2
That units the Geese and Bruins up for a date in Allegiant Stadium, and there’s no motive to imagine the result can be any completely different than what we witnessed in Eugene just a few weeks in the past.
It may be extra aggressive than a 15-point margin, however the Geese will win.
Step 4: The CFP shuffle
At that time, Oregon is a 12-1 convention champion and a critical contender for the CFP.
Two spots are locked up: Georgia, because the undefeated SEC winner; and the Ohio State-Michigan winner because the undefeated Huge Ten champ.
That leaves two berths for a mixture of Oregon, the ACC champ, the Huge 12 champ, an SEC non-division winner (Tennessee) and a Huge Ten non-division winner (the OSU-Michigan loser).
We like Oregon’s probabilities in that state of affairs.
The 49-3 loss to Georgia can't be unseen, however each different contender for these two CFP slots could have a flawed resume, as effectively.
(Tennessee’s decisive loss to Georgia was gargantuan for the Geese within the occasion of a resume showdown with the Vols.)
And with a sequence of stretch-run victories over ranked opponents, Oregon will look the half come choice weekend.
Step 5: The alternative workforce
If the Geese leap into the playoff, the Rose Bowl would substitute them with the next-highest-ranked workforce from the Pac-12 (per the choice committee’s rankings).
That assuredly can be UCLA.
Why? As a result of the committee not often punishes championship recreation losers, so the Bruins wouldn't drop under USC or Utah (groups they beat head-to-head) assuming they're fairly aggressive in Las Vegas.
With the Geese within the playoff, the Pac-12’s remaining bowl-eligible groups would transfer up one rung within the pecking order, as mirrored within the projections under.
School Soccer Playoff
Group: Oregon (8-1/6-0)
Dwelling video games remaining (two): Washington, Utah
Street video games remaining (one): Oregon State
Remark: One level we didn’t point out: Oregon wants Brigham Younger (5-5) to choose up the tempo and end with a profitable file. The extra victories over groups on the excessive aspect of .500, the higher the resume seems to be.
Rose Bowl
Group: UCLA (8-1/5-1)
Dwelling (two): Arizona, USC
Street (one): Cal
Remark: Sights you by no means thought you’d see: UCLA enjoying the Rose Bowl with each seat stuffed.
Alamo Bowl
Group: USC (8-1/6-1)
Dwelling (two): Colorado, Notre Dame
Street (one): UCLA
Remark: If the Trojans win the crosstown showdown on Nov. 19, the script flips. Win in Las Vegas, and they'd have a terrific shot on the playoff. Lose, and they'd both fill the emptiness within the Rose or develop into a New Yr’s Six at-large entry within the Cotton Bowl.
Vacation Bowl
Group: Utah (7-2/5-1)
Dwelling (one): Stanford
Street (two): Oregon, Colorado
Remark: The Vacation Bowl as a disappointment: My, how the expectations have advanced.
Las Vegas Bowl
Group: Washington (7-2/4-2)
Dwelling (one): Colorado
Street (two): Oregon, WSU
Remark: Why not embrace UW in any of the aforementioned eventualities? Easy. We expect the Huskies will get hammered in Eugene. In the event that they win, we’ll reassess.
Solar Bowl
Group: Oregon State (6-3/3-3)
Dwelling (two): Cal, Oregon
Street (one): ASU
Remark: Every week, a visit to El Paso turns into extra doubtless for the Beavers. What might change that trajectory? Successful out, or the Pac-12 getting shut out of each the CFP and the Cotton Bowl.
LA Bowl
Group: Washington State (5-4/2-4)
Dwelling (two): ASU, Washington
Street (one): Arizona
Remark: The Solar and LA bowls are supposed to pick groups primarily based on order-of-finish however might conform to swap members to make sure WSU and OSU aren’t repeat guests to their respective websites.
Non-qualifier
Group: Arizona (3-6/1-4)
Dwelling (two): Washington State, ASU
Street (one): UCLA
Remark: Absent an upset of UCLA to maintain the postseason in view, the ending stretch is all about beating ASU.
Non-qualifier
Group: Arizona State (3-6/2-4)
Dwelling (one): Oregon State
Street (two): WSU, Arizona
Remark: As soon as the probability of bowl eligibility dips under 5 %, we transfer groups into the pool of non-qualifiers.
Non-qualifier
Group: Cal (3-6/1-5)
Dwelling (two): Stanford, UCLA
Street (one): Oregon State
Remark: If the choices are 5-7 or 4-8, the Bears may be higher off with the latter. That approach, they don’t spend the offseason stewing over the Colorado loss.
Non-qualifier
Group: Colorado (1-8/1-5)
Dwelling (one): Utah
Street (two): USC, Washington
Remark: Tad Boyle seems to have one other stable workforce.
Non-qualifier
Group: Stanford (3-6/1-6)
Dwelling (one): Brigham Younger
Street (two): Utah, Cal
Remark: When there’s an excessive variety of accidents every year and no reversion to the imply, it’s greater than dangerous luck.
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