With the approaching midterm election more likely to pose little problem to Gov. Gavin Newsom’s re-election bid, political specialists are looking forward to indicators of what may very well be a extra thrilling race – a possible presidential bid from California’s governor. However how would his observe file as chief govt within the Golden State play on the nationwide stage?
We requested three specialists to weigh in on the largest coverage peaks and potholes alongside Newsom’s potential path to the White Home. There are many issues the governor can brag about from his 4 years main California, together with the state’s strong economic system. However there may be additionally fodder for assault advertisements by his opponents, such because the homelessness disaster that continues to worsen regardless of the governor’s efforts.
Listed below are a number of the points certain to play a giant position in any Newsom for president marketing campaign.
The economic system
California’s $308 billion funds included a huge surplus this yr – at a time when the COVID-19 pandemic had solid a shadow over all the nation’s funds – permitting Newsom to unfold that cash round whereas additionally saving for a wet day. In the course of the pandemic, he’s given a refund to Californians within the type of stimulus checks and a current tax refund – details he’s certain to level out when challengers discuss inflation and excessive fuel costs.
“One factor they’ve performed rather well is handle the funds,” Sonoma State College political science professor David McCuan mentioned of Newsom’s administration. However there are “clouds on the horizon” within the type of a possible recession, which may change the narrative, he mentioned.
Newsom additionally opposed Proposition 30, a poll measure that will fund incentives for electrical vehicles by taxing the richest Californians. That would assist him counter claims that he’s only a “tax and spend” Democrat, mentioned Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo Faculty. However the transfer additionally has clean-energy advocates and progressives accusing him of kowtowing to California’s rich.
The governor mentioned he didn’t wish to give California’s millionaires any cause to go away. It’s not a baseless concern: A current census report – which exhibits median earnings within the Bay Space has dropped – suggests rich residents already are transferring out of the area. And greater than half of Bay Space residents say they’re more likely to transfer away within the subsequent few years, citing housing prices, high quality of life and taxes as complaints, in keeping with a current ballot by this information group.
Housing and homelessness
Newsom put aside an unprecedented amount of cash and launched a number of new options to deal with the inexpensive housing and homelessness crises. However he’s fallen far wanting his preliminary constructing targets, and each housing costs and homelessness have soared since he’s been in workplace.
The governor signed a slate of controversial payments designed to spice up housing manufacturing – together with Senate Invoice 9, which permits as much as 4 items on most heaps. He launched a brand new accountability unit designed to penalize cities that fail to plan for sufficient housing. He poured $14 billion into providers, shelter and housing for homeless Californians. He sheltered greater than 60,000 unhoused folks in lodge rooms beneath Mission Roomkey, and doled out funding to show inns, dorms and different buildings into 12,500 items of homeless housing by way of Homekey. This previous week, he mentioned he’ll withhold $1 billion in funding till cities and counties give you extra formidable plans to scale back homelessness.
Newsom has performed much more on this difficulty than any California governor earlier than him, mentioned Jim Wunderman, president and CEO of the Bay Space Council.
“Will or not it's sufficient?” he requested. “It relies upon when he runs. If issues are allowed to develop for a number of years, I think we’ll begin seeing some enhancements. But when we’re speaking about 2024, possibly not a lot.”
Whereas campaigning for governor, Newsom set a purpose of constructing 3.5 million houses by 2025. He’s since walked again from that, calling it a stretch purpose. Since Newsom took workplace in 2019, simply 452,000 items have been authorised all through the state, in keeping with the Development Trade Analysis Board, which tracks constructing permits.
Within the five-county Bay Space, homelessness has elevated an estimated 10% since Newsom took workplace, and the proof is in every single place, in shantytowns on vacant land and highway medians, and in RVs lining metropolis streets.
“The issue of housing insecurity is extreme and doesn't appear to be enhancing,” Michelson mentioned. “It’d be laborious to level to any large success right here for the governor.”
Abortion and extra
Newsom has a protracted historical past of backing progressive insurance policies, relationship again almost 20 years when he licensed homosexual marriages as San Francisco’s mayor earlier than the fitting to same-sex marriage was the legislation of the land. When he turned governor, he halted executions within the state nearly as quickly as he took workplace. And after the U.S. Supreme Courtroom overturned Roe v. Wade this yr, Newsom positioned himself as a champion of abortion rights – taking steps to assist out-of-state residents entry care in California, backing a poll measure to enshrine the fitting within the state structure, and taking to the nationwide stage to criticize Republicans who're outlawing abortion of their states.
All of that may give him factors among the many nation’s progressives. However he’ll additionally should push again towards claims that he’s too liberal. Some pundits suspect that’s why he vetoed a invoice earlier this yr that would have allowed San Francisco, Oakland and Los Angeles to open secure drug consumption websites geared toward stopping overdoses.
Crime
Smash-and-grab burglaries and open-air drug use have fueled requires a crackdown on crime. Newsom’s opponents level a finger at Prop. 47, the 2014 poll measure – which Newsom backed as Lt. Governor – that decreased penalties for some nonviolent crimes.
In a current debate towards Sen. Brian Dahle, Newsom defended Prop. 47 and mentioned California’s felony crime fee is common in comparison with the remainder of the nation.
Whereas violent and property crime elevated in California final yr, each remained comparatively low, in keeping with the Public Coverage Institute of California. Charges dropped from a peak of 1,115 violent crimes per 100,000 residents in 1992, to 466 violent crimes per 100,000 residents final yr. Even so, crime stays on the forefront of voters’ issues.
The atmosphere
“Local weather change is actual y’all,” Newsom proclaimed in a information launch saying his approval of this yr’s funds, which incorporates almost $54 billion to assault greenhouse fuel emissions and their impacts on the atmosphere, together with cash for forest thinning and prescribed burns to struggle wildfires. He’s ordered that new vehicles should be zero-emission by 2035. And he’s signed laws he says will lower air air pollution by 60% over 20 years.
However because the state grapples with an ongoing drought, Newsom has shied away from issuing obligatory cuts in water utilization with fines for businesses that fall quick — not like former Gov. Jerry Brown. As a substitute, Newsom has required most cities to restrict outside watering, whereas additionally encouraging folks to chop again voluntarily. That’s not working fairly in addition to the governor had hoped. As of August, California’s city residents had lower water utilization by 10.5% in comparison with 2020 – wanting Newsom’s 15% purpose, however an enchancment from prior months.