Two Pacific Northwest groups head to the desert this week as double-digit favorites. Each of them are ranked. Each of their opponents are unranked. Which one ought to really feel safer?
That’s straightforward: The crew that misplaced its season opener 49-3.
Whereas the packaging is analogous for Washington, a 14-point favourite at Arizona State, and Oregon, a 13-point favourite at Arizona, the fact is sort of completely different.
When judging the Geese, we merely ignore the Georgia loss. It’s not related to any matchups or outcomes inside Pac-12 play.
As a substitute, deal with Oregon as an undefeated top-10 crew with blowout wins over Brigham Younger and Stanford and a come-from-behind victory at Washington State.
Deal with Bo Nix as a quarterback with 12 touchdowns and just one interception.
Deal with the offense as a unit averaging 50 factors per recreation and the protection as a unit permitting simply 25.5.
As a result of if the Geese had performed what everybody else in main school soccer did and opened their season towards somebody not named Georgia, their resume and analytics would have a special look getting into Week Six.
They usually assuredly can be favored by greater than 13 factors towards an opponent that was overwhelmed soundly by mediocre Cal two weeks in the past and didn't demolish abysmal Colorado final weekend.
Eradicate the Georgia consequence and the way it formed the general public notion of the Twelfth-ranked Geese, and they might be favored by 18 or 20 factors Saturday.
That very same logic can't be utilized to Washington’s date with Arizona State.
Sure, the defeat final week at UCLA was an outlier consequence, the lone loss or signal of weak point from the No. 21 Huskies. And sure, it was a Friday night time affair, a setting that's perpetually difficult for the street groups.
However it shouldn’t be brushed apart the way in which Oregon-Georgia needs to be ignored.
The Huskies are susceptible defensively, particularly within the secondary — how’s that for a job reversal on Montlake? — they usually didn’t play with the identical confidence within the Rose Bowl that was on show throughout their scorching begin within the comforts of dwelling.
That’s important this week. Of all of the Pac-12 venues, none has been as inhospitable for the Huskies as Solar Satan Stadium, the place they've misplaced seven consecutive video games. (Final win: 2001.)
Additionally, let’s not ignore the distinction in situations on Saturday. It needs to be 90 levels in Tempe for the 1 p.m. kickoff however solely within the 70s in Tucson when Oregon takes the sphere for a 6 p.m. begin.
Two Pacific Northwest groups head to the desert as double-digit favorites.
Which ought to really feel safer? That’s straightforward: The one with the irrelevant loss.
Final week: 5-1
Season: 17-19
5-star particular: 3-2
Spreads taken from BetMGM (as of 6:45 a.m. Wednesday)
Recreation totals in parenthesis
All occasions Pacific
Idle: Cal and Colorado
Utah at UCLA
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FOX
Line: Utah -4.5 (whole: 64.5)
Remark: The highest matchup of Week Six has important convention championship repercussions. We’re fascinated by the tactical duel between Bruins coach/offensive playcaller Chip Kelly and Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley. The Utes have dominated the collection in recent times by controlling the road of scrimmage, however UCLA is healthier outfitted this time round and should run the ball efficiently to maintain Utah guessing. Of notice: The Utes opened as a 2.5-point favourite, so the general public isn’t bought on the Bruins.
Choose: UCLA
Washington at Arizona State
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Washington -14 (57.5)
Remark: We don't consider ASU is as dangerous because it seemed simply earlier than (Jap Michigan) and simply after (Utah) Herm Edwards stepped down. The protection is susceptible, for positive. However there are sufficient playmakers on offense for the Solar Devils to compete with most groups within the convention. In the event that they restrict turnovers and penalties, Emory Jones and Co. ought to gather loads of first downs and touchdowns and make this fascinating down the stretch. By dinnertime Saturday, help for Shaun Aguano as ASU’s everlasting coach might start to percolate.
Choose: Arizona State
Washington State at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on FOX
Line: USC -13 (whole: 66)
Remark: WSU’s entrance seven will trigger USC bother, however containing ultra-elusive quarterback Caleb Williams is paramount. In the meantime, the Cougars ought to have alternatives to maneuver the ball towards a USC protection that ranks 71st nationally in yards-per-play allowed. If Cam Ward is safe with the ball — he hasn’t been thus far — this will probably be a one-possession recreation within the fourth quarter. We just like the Cougars however love the Beneath.
Choose: Washington State
Oregon at Arizona
Kickoff: 6 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Oregon -13 (70)
Remark: Wildcats quarterback Jayden de Laura is completely able to making spectacularly dangerous choices underneath strain, and he will probably be underneath strain regularly towards one of many high entrance sevens within the convention. (He threw two interceptions final yr towards Oregon whereas enjoying for Washington State.) We count on Arizona will cease itself periodically and to cease Oregon occasionally, a mixture that ought to result in the guests protecting the unfold and the groups zooming previous the overall (70). Arizona is healthier, not higher sufficient to threaten the Geese.
Choose: Oregon
Oregon State at Stanford
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on FS1
Line: Oregon State -7 (56.5)
Remark: How far has Stanford fallen? It’s a seven-point underdog at dwelling towards a crew that’s winless in convention play and doesn’t have a wholesome beginning quarterback. (OSU’s Probability Nolan injured his neck at Utah and is questionable.) However while you haven’t overwhelmed an FBS opponent in additional than a yr, that’s life towards the unfold. The end result relies upon completely on the Beavers’ turnover tally. Two or extra, they lose. One or zero, they win.
Choose: Stanford
Straight-up winners: UCLA, Washington, USC, Oregon and Stanford
5-star particular: Over in Washington-Arizona State. The full has gone into the 60s or 70s in every of UW’s 4 video games towards FBS opponents (Kent State, Michigan State, Stanford and UCLA). Saturday, the Over streak extends to 5.
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