The lightest Saturday of the Pac-12 season options the sport of the yr. For that motive, our intention is to elucidate a rivalry.
The Hotline contends that Oregon needs to be favored by greater than six factors in opposition to UCLA, that the road is artificially low because of the 49-3 loss to Georgia — a outcome that carries no relevance inside Pac-12 play.
Put one other manner: Take away that sport from Oregon’s resume and substitute a typical season-opening opponent (Group of 5 or FCS). Think about the Geese had performed a group like Bowling Inexperienced, which was UCLA’s opponent in Week One.
In that case, the Geese can be 6-0 as an alternative of 5-1 and ranked within the high 5 or 6 as an alternative of No. 10.
And underneath these circumstances — normalized circumstances, not Georgia-ized circumstances — the Geese can be a extra substantial favourite over UCLA than six factors.
Make sense?
To correctly assess our rivalry, the Hotline requested Las Vegas handicapper Kenny White, a CBS Sportsline analyst whose web site publishes faculty soccer energy rankings.
His response: “The Geese’ (energy) score can be at the very least two factors larger by enjoying a decrease degree FBS group or FCS group” as an alternative of carrying the 46-point loss to Georgia on their resume.
Right here’s how White’s energy rankings see the Geese within the two completely different eventualities …
How would a normalized Week One opponent — and presumptive victory — have impacted the purpose unfold on Saturday?
White’s conclusion: “Sure, if Oregon received Week One in opposition to a weaker opponent and was undefeated, the road for this sport this week may have been Oregon -7 or perhaps -7.5.”
As an alternative, due to a blowout loss to an opponent the likes of which no Pac-12 group has confronted, the Geese are six-point favorites.
From a handicapping perspective, that distinction is critical. As a result of so many video games are determined by a landing, oddsmakers are cautious of transferring a betting line from one facet of seven to the opposite. It will take a piece of money for the road to shift from -6 to -7.5.
In our estimation, the distinction can be justified. The Georgia result's an outlier, masking Oregon’s true worth within the UCLA sport particularly but additionally in opposition to each different group on its schedule.
That has performed out, for probably the most half, within the 5 video games for the reason that opener:
Opponent: vs. Japanese Washington
Line: Oregon favored by 27.5
Final result: Oregon received by 56
Opponent: vs. Brigham Younger
Line: Oregon favored by 3.5
Final result: Oregon received by 21 (forward by 31 coming into the fourth quarter)
Opponent: at Washington State
Line: Oregon favored by 6.5
Final result: Oregon received by 3
Opponent: vs. Stanford
Line: Oregon favored by 17.5
Final result: Oregon received by 18 (forward by 28 with 5 minutes remaining)
Opponent: at Arizona
Line: Oregon favored by 13.5
Final result: Oregon received by 27
Granted, UCLA is the perfect group the Geese have confronted since Georgia by a big margin. And as White identified, the Bruins are “coming in with revenge from final yr’s dwelling loss.” (A 3-point defeat.)
That stated, that is ninth-ranked UCLA’s most troublesome project by an order of magnitude. So far, the Bruins have performed one highway sport — in opposition to lowly Colorado, no much less.
However let’s flip each scripts, not simply Oregon’s.
Think about the Geese, not UCLA, had opened the season with a victory over Bowling Inexperienced and the Bruins, not Oregon, had been blown off the sphere by Georgia.
Oregon can be 6-0 and ranked No. 5 or 6.
The Bruins can be 5-1 and sure hovering round No. 20.
In that case, the Geese may be a double-digit favourite, which is strictly how we see the sport.
Oregon 35, UCLA 24.
To the picks …
Final week: 4-1
Season: 25-21
5-star particular: 4-3
(Of be aware: After a sluggish begin, the Hotline is 13-3 in opposition to the unfold up to now three weeks, so experience the picks — or keep away from them in any respect price.)
Spreads taken from BetMGM
Sport totals in parenthesis
All occasions Pacific
Idle: Arizona, Utah, USC and Washington State
UCLA at Oregon
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Line: Oregon -6 (complete: 69.5)
Remark: Along with the context above, contemplate the full: 69.5 factors. Each groups are averaging greater than 40 per sport, and each quarterbacks (Oregon’s Bo Nix and UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson) are enjoying effectively. However Oregon owns a stout protection loaded with blue-chip recruits, and UCLA’s unit isn't fairly the turnstile Oregon confronted final season. The coaches will plan for a detailed sport, keep away from high-risk conditions and run the ball as typically as doable to restrict the opposite group’s possessions. In different phrases, the Beneath is tempting. Very tempting.
Decide: Oregon
Arizona State at Stanford
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Stanford -3 (complete: 55.5)
Remark: Sometimes, we'd favor the group with two weeks to arrange over the group coming off a cross-country journey. However the victory at Notre Dame undoubtedly boosted Stanford’s confidence. Had the Cardinal correctly defended the ultimate move in opposition to Oregon State, it might have a two-game successful streak and be favored by greater than three factors this week. Quarterback Emory Jones is scheduled to start out after recovering from a concussion, however search for a fast hook — and backup Trenton Bourguet — if he struggles.
Decide: Stanford
Colorado at Oregon State
Kickoff: 5 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Oregon State -24 (complete: 50.5)
Remark: Traditional letdown state of affairs for the Beavers following their win over Washington State and dealing with a second-rate opponent. In the meantime, CU will carry a morsel of momentum after its first victory of 2022 and beat OSU final yr in Boulder (in double extra time). The Beavers ought to have the sport in hand late, however that’s a number of too many factors. (With a run-heavy strategy, they aren’t constructed for blowouts.) The Beneath is tempting given OSU’s stout protection — USC managed simply 17 factors in Corvallis — and Colorado’s extraordinarily restricted playmaking. The Buffs have but to attain greater than 17 factors in regulation.
Decide: Colorado
Washington at Cal
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Line: UW -7.5 (complete: 56.5)
Remark: The guests simply scored 49 factors and possess probably the most dynamic aerial assaults within the nation. The hosts have scored 22 factors of their previous eight quarters (plus an extra time interval). Must be a straightforward name, proper? Completely. And that decision is … the Bears, who've received two of the previous three conferences and play nicely at dwelling. (Final loss in Berkeley: Oct. 2, 2021.) In the meantime, the Huskies are 0-2 on the highway this yr and deeply flawed defensively — even Cal ought to rating a number of touchdowns. Additionally, the groups have a latest frequent opponent: UW beat Arizona 49-39, whereas Cal dispatched the Wildcats 49-31.
Decide: Cal
Straight-up winners: Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State and Cal
5-star particular: Oregon. We couldn’t commit that a lot area to the case for the Geese being undervalued and never make them the five-star particular.
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