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Please observe: Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
Do you assume we lastly get a solution on convention realignment by the top of the month? — @hmckee53
Till lately, I'd have pegged the second half of October because the window for Pac-12 colleges to signal a media rights deal (or expertise an alternate consequence).
However commissioner George Kliavkoff’s latest feedback on ‘Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast‘ recommend the method might final past the soccer season:
“I don’t really feel, candidly, any sense of urgency at this level,” he mentioned. “Nobody’s going anyplace; we’re all collectively; we’re targeted on doing this.”
Let’s add two issues of context:
— The Huge Ten’s media negotiations started in February or March — I’m undecided of the beginning date — and didn’t conclude till the center of August.
Utilizing that five-month timeframe as a information, the Pac-12’s course of might final into the winter.
— Had ESPN made a suggestion the Pac-12 couldn’t refuse in the course of the unique negotiating interval, the deal can be signed and sealed by now.
However why would ESPN have felt compelled to bid towards itself? It didn’t make sense for the community to match the Pac-12’s ask, which we consider was within the vary of $450 million to $500 million per 12 months for 5 years.
Absent the killer supply from ESPN, the Pac-12 is now negotiating in the marketplace and trying to generate aggressive bids that drive up the worth.
To be clear: A deal might occur at any second, however Kliavkoff’s response makes us consider a decision stays months away.
What’s the worst-case state of affairs for the Pac-12, and the way rapidly might that be realized? — @RichParsonsTX
The worst-case state of affairs is extinction, an occasion that comes about if the Huge Ten decides to ask Washington, Oregon and maybe the Bay Space colleges to type a western division.
In idea, a second Huge Ten raid might occur anytime. We aren’t satisfied one thing is imminent.
Nonetheless a lot commissioner Kevin Warren would possibly need to broaden his convention and his legacy, we don’t get the sense a majority of his presidents are in favor of detonating the Pac-12.
Nor are the Huge Ten’s media companions in place handy over the billions of dollars required so as to add 4 West Coast colleges whereas holding the membership entire.
(With the intention to preserve the $70+ million annual payouts for the 16 colleges, Fox, NBC and CBS must fork over $280 million yearly for the incoming quartet. Over the lifetime of the Huge Ten’s deal, that’s about $2 billion.)
So we’re again the place we started on this challenge: The worst-case state of affairs doesn't seem probably this fall.
That mentioned, it’s realignment. Nothing is ever sure.
(For extra on this matter, take into account the Hotline’s opus on the way forward for the game.)
Is there a schedule state of affairs protected for the athletes the place (together with the bye) the Pac-12 might put out a Thursday (or Wednesday) sport every week? — @NIRVANwA
Taking part in on Wednesday is perhaps a tad excessive for the Pac-12, with one exception: The day earlier than Thanksgiving, which we have now lengthy felt is a broadcast window value filling. (By 5 p.m., the vacation weekend is underway.)
However sure, the convention is undoubtedly exploring the potential of taking part in recurrently on each Thursday and Friday within the new media contract cycle, which begins in 2024.
We've touched on this challenge earlier than, however it’s value repeating:
Alone among the many Energy 5 conferences, the Pac-12 might supply community companions a minimum of 26 kickoffs at 7:30 p.m. (13 on each Friday and Saturday). And that determine might improve to 39 home windows if Thursday is included.
However in an effort to make the schedule work — to keep away from forcing every group to play half its video games on Thursday and Friday — the convention would want to spice up its stock.
That may solely be achieved through enlargement, and it'd require greater than 12 groups.
Odds that any faculty is deemed worthy sufficient to get the votes wanted to be invited into the Pac-12? — @bogeycat85
I consider the chance of enlargement is excessive, for the explanation acknowledged above.
Not one of the obtainable colleges deliver sufficient model worth to straight improve media rights income for the collective.
As an alternative, the worth of enlargement is oblique:
Extra groups would create extra video games, enable the convention to fill these 7:30 p.m. home windows a number of occasions per week and probably lead to extra profitable media contracts.
The convention might broaden into Texas (hey, SMU), however campuses within the Central Time Zone wouldn’t begin residence video games at 9:30 p.m.
From the standpoint of scheduling flexibility, the Pac-12 would want so as to add colleges within the Pacific Time Zone.
Given the same media values of the 2 conferences, why is there any dialogue of Pac-12 colleges bolting for the Huge 12 earlier than the Huge Ten finishes us off by taking our remaining high-value colleges? — gk
As a result of the Huge 12 and its representatives proceed to publicly push the thought of raiding the Pac-12. It occurred lately when commissioner Brett Yormark spoke of wanting so as to add groups from the Pacific Time Zone. Though he didn’t identify names, the implications had been clear.
However the backside line has remained unchanged for months: The Huge 12 is a backup possibility for Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah, to be utilized solely within the occasion the Huge Ten executes one other raid.
If Washington, Oregon and maybe the Bay Space colleges be a part of USC and UCLA to type a western division, there can be no Pac-12 left for the 4 Corners universities.
I'd urge readers to be cautious of what you consider. Many experiences by media retailers and rumors on social media are nonsense — and have been since July.
The probably state of affairs, as we have now acknowledged repeatedly, is for the ten remaining colleges to signal a medium-term grant of rights settlement.
If and when the winds change, we'll let you already know.
What faculty has been on the Pac-12 Networks probably the most in a given 12 months? Additionally, considerably associated: Since USC must be on the networks yet one more time, which sport will or not it's: towards Arizona or Cal? — JB
I don’t have a solution to your first query on the prepared, however the second is one thing the Hotline has contemplated.
USC’s remaining schedule is the next:
vs. Washington State (Fox)
at Utah (Fox)
at Arizona
vs. Cal
vs. Colorado (Friday, FS1)
at UCLA
vs. Notre Dame
One of many 4 video games not at the moment assigned should be proven on the Pac-12 Networks, and it actually gained’t be both UCLA or Notre Dame.
The end result is tough to foretell as a result of we don’t know the printed home windows Fox and ESPN have reserved for the Pac-12 on the Saturdays that USC faces Arizona (Oct. 29) and Cal (Nov. 5).
Fox is scheduled to indicate the World Collection on each days (Sport Two and Sport Seven), so that would restrict its curiosity within the Pac-12 and go away the choice to ESPN.
Would it not transfer the monetary needle in any respect if the Pac-12 added Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s as basketball-only members? — Jon Joseph
Our suspicion is that Gonzaga would possibly improve the worth of Pac-12 basketball by creating extra must-see video games and successfully changing UCLA’s presence.
As an alternative of two Arizona-UCLA matchups within the annual stock, Pac-12 media companions would have two Arizona-Gonzaga video games.
(Saint Mary’s doesn’t carry the identical influence and would in all probability be dilutive to the collective.)
That mentioned, I haven’t sensed a powerful want throughout the convention to pursue colleges for basketball-only membership. Of each greenback allotted to the convention for media rights, about 85 cents could be attributed to soccer.
However like a lot else about realignment, the scenario might change.
If Stanford wins the Learfield Administrators’ Cup, will anybody within the athletic division discover a 1-11 soccer group? — @WorkishFromHome
The query speaks to Stanford’s distinctive place in main school soccer. Anyplace else — even Vanderbilt or Northwestern — and David Shaw’s seat can be 5 occasions hotter than it's.
We don’t consider Shaw will get fired by his alma mater, now or ever. If the scenario reached untenable ranges, he would both go away for one more job or, maybe, change into a TV analyst.
What constitutes untenable?
That’s a call for the college, however we'd remind readers that Stanford introduced in March that basketball coach Jerod Haase’s job was protected regardless of the absence of NCAA event appearances and Pac-12 titles throughout his six-year tenure.
(Shaw, alternatively, has gained three convention titles.)
Why? As a result of Stanford is completely different.
And in a single regard — the switch portal — that distinction isn’t merely a handy excuse. Whereas Shaw’s counterparts at USC, UCLA and Oregon have used the portal to reload their rosters, he can not due to the college’s admissions requirements.
To be clear: The switch portal limitations aren’t the one rationalization for Stanford’s struggles. Recruiting and improvement have suffered, the strength-and-conditioning program has deteriorated, and Shaw hasn’t been keen to reshuffle his employees.
Mix the exterior obstacles and inner missteps, and this system has returned to the depths of the pre-Jim Harbaugh period within the mid-2000s.
The distinction now? The top coach is making greater than $6 million yearly (per USA As we speak) whereas fielding a group that hasn’t gained a convention sport in 53 weeks.
Why doesn’t Utah coach Kyle Wittingham get the accolades he deserves? Yearly, he appears to take three-star gamers and switch them into first-round draft decisions. — @MaxRexroad
Whittingham runs the mannequin program within the Pac-12, with out query.
His system meshes completely with the varsity’s pure recruiting pool — there are a great deal of huge, robust Polynesian youngsters in Utah and inquisitive about taking part in for Utah — and his teaching employees develops expertise brilliantly.
I’d argue that Whittingham’s media profile doesn’t match his on-field success as a result of he prefers it that approach. If he wished extra consideration, he would have left for a job at a blue-blood program or in a serious media market.
That mentioned, he has been named Pac-12 Coast of the 12 months in two of the previous three seasons and is without doubt one of the highest-paid coaches within the convention. So his accomplishments haven’t been ignored.
What's the principal cause for Colorado and Utah moving into precisely reverse instructions since becoming a member of the Pac-12? — @saint4patriots
Actually, I’m undecided Colorado’s trajectory has modified for the reason that colleges arrived in 2011.
Listed here are CU’s year-by-year information in its closing 5 seasons within the Huge 12, in chronological order: 2-10, 6-7, 5-7, 3-9 and 5-7. That’s not a lot completely different from life within the Pac-12.
The disparity in success could be attributed to teaching and personnel. On each fronts, Utah has the benefit.
A key cause for that's the quantity of in-state expertise obtainable to the respective applications: The Utes have a formidable provide, particularly in relation to linemen; the Buffaloes don't.
In actual fact, we take into account Colorado one of many hardest teaching jobs within the convention exactly as a result of its major recruiting grounds (Texas and California) are multi-hour flights from campus.
That reduces the margin for error for prospect analysis and participant improvement, thereby limiting the pool of coaches able to profitable constantly.
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