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Please word: Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
You mentioned that ultimately some Pac-12 groups will go away for the Huge 12, simply not now for the reason that Huge Ten isn’t increasing quickly. Is there something the Pac-12 can do within the meantime to stop these colleges from leaving? — @hmckee53
In my imaginative and prescient of the long run of the game, Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah are destined for the Huge 12. However let’s be clear with the specifics on two fronts.
*** The timing of the exodus is unknown and is dependent upon the Huge Ten.
If the convention provides Oregon, Washington, Stanford and Cal to type a six-school western division (with USC and UCLA), the Pac-12 will dissolve. However there are three doable home windows for the rupture:
1. This fall, which appears unlikely.
2. The tip of the last decade, because the Huge Ten prepares for its subsequent media contract.
3. The center of the 2030s, when the ACC’s grant-of-rights settlement expires.
It’s solely doable that the reconstituted Pac-12 will survive for an additional 10-15 years. In reality, that end result is extra probably than a collapse within the subsequent few months.
*** The long run Huge 12 gained’t be the Huge 12 as we all know it.
As an alternative, it will likely be a coast-to-coast receptacle for any Energy 5 applications that aren’t future members of the Huge Ten or SEC.
Certain, we see the Pac-12 ultimately fracturing, however the ACC will do the identical. The selection colleges (Virginia, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Florida State and Miami) will ultimately be a part of both the SEC or the Huge Ten.
In different phrases, the implosion of the present convention construction just isn't particular to the Pac-12. It’s the results of an inevitable, systemic change — one fueled by the hunt for media dollars — that impacts each convention in some vogue or one other.
The Huge 12 might lose a group or two, as properly. Kansas could be atop our checklist of probably departures, adopted by Oklahoma State and Houston if the SEC and Huge Ten find yourself as 24-team leagues.
However when the shaking subsides, the Huge 12 can be reformed, maybe renamed and residential to 20-to-24 colleges which can be damaged into 4 divisions.
The long-haul construction for faculty soccer, in that situation, will function an expanded Huge Ten, an expanded SEC, an enormous Huge 12 after which a sequence of conferences crafted from the present Group of 5.
Do you assume the change in tone from the Huge Ten (signaling a pause to enlargement) is adequate to get Pac-12 colleges to signal a brand new grant-of-rights deal quickly? Or do some maintain out to see the deal? — @OskiDeLaHoya
These points unfold concurrently — they're separate paperwork, in spite of everything.
Commissioner George Kliavkoff will create one of the best media rights deal doable and take it to the presidents for approval.
If it’s passable, the faculties will signal their grant of rights over to the convention, then signal the media contract. If the deal on the desk isn’t adequate, they gained’t signal the grant of rights.
As Kliavkoff defined just lately on ‘Canzano and Wilner: The Podcast‘: “I believe (they) will signal a grant-of-rights settlement if we put the appropriate settlement in entrance of them.”
In our view, Kliavkoff supplied that candid evaluation as a result of he’s pretty assured of a optimistic end result.
Does the Huge Ten pushing pause imply the Huge 12 will cease lobbing grenades, as properly? –@bogeycat85
It’s attention-grabbing how Huge Ten commissioner Kevin Warren and Huge 12 commissioner Brett Yormark have struck comparable tones about enlargement within the three-and-a-half months since USC and UCLA rocked the Pac-12.
Each had been aggressive with their remarks over the summer season, including to the notion of instability within the Pac-12, however currently, each have tempered their public statements. (It virtually seems to be coordinated.)
Yormark’s stance on the time was comprehensible as a result of his convention is, in some methods, at a major drawback relative to the Pac-12.
The 2024 expiration of the Pac-12’s media rights contract means it's presently engaged in formal negotiations with events. It could actually speak onerous numbers and current contract phrases to its members. The Huge 12 can not due to a contract that doesn’t expire till 2025.
Yormark is attempting to alter that dynamic and enter into early negotiations along with his companions. From what we perceive, that step hasn’t materialized but.
Will the “grenades” subside? We can not say. Simply concentrate on what you learn and the place you learn it.
If Notre Dame stays Unbiased, does any realignment occur in any respect? — @RChalk94
The Hotline doesn't imagine Notre Dame will be a part of a convention so long as the Irish have cheap entry to the playoff and their subsequent media contract meets income expectations.
We count on each standards to be met.
However Notre Dame’s continued place as an Unbiased gained’t cease realignment. As soon as the Huge Ten’s new media rights contract expires in 2030, the convention will determine to develop once more — and its broadcast companions may have the means and the curiosity to pay for extra stock.
Put one other approach: Notre Dame’s standing has restricted the scope of realignment proper now, nevertheless it gained’t cease the subsequent wave.
I at all times thought Oregon would need to go the Unbiased route. The Geese might schedule who they like and, in the event that they’re the true nationwide model they are saying they're, it could be match. What say you? — @PW4170
We are saying that will be a foul concept. Oregon has a nationwide model, however not of the dimensions and affect that will command the media income wanted to compete for a championship.
In that regard, the Geese are extra like Brigham Younger than Notre Dame, and look the place the Cougars are heading: into the Huge 12.
Life as an Unbiased isn’t simple, significantly with scheduling. Everybody desires to play Notre Dame, however once more, the Irish are distinctive. Brigham Younger has simply 5 video games towards Energy 5 opponents this season, and we see no cause Oregon’s state of affairs could be any completely different if the Geese made the leap.
Do the upcoming modifications within the Pac-12 appear to be impacting recruiting? If that's the case, how? — @MattRexroad
We haven’t seen a dramatic shift from what you'll count on given the lineup of head coaches. For instance, USC’s recruiting has improved markedly, however that’s the results of hiring Lincoln Riley, not transferring to the Huge Ten.
That mentioned, it’s far too early to attract conclusions.
At this level within the 2022-23 recruiting cycle, prospects are allowed to make non-binding verbal commitments. These are sometimes damaged, both by the participant or the varsity.
The true gauge of fabric change ensuing from the departures of USC and UCLA or instability inside the remaining members will come through the early signing window (Dec. 21-23).
And we can be monitoring that state of affairs intently.
Will the convention persist with the division format for video games subsequent 12 months, now that division winners don’t go to the championship? Or will that change for the ultimate season with the L.A. faculty? — @Pyperkub
Though the convention has scrapped the divisions as a method of recording outcomes and figuring out which groups will play within the Pac-12 championship recreation, it retained the schedule that was used beneath the division format: The 2 misses for every group are opponents from what was the opposite division.
The Hotline has not confirmed the plan for 2023 however strongly believes the convention will persist with that format, then shift to a distinct schedule rotation for 2024 and past, relying on the membership configuration (i.e., enlargement).
That’s far simpler than crafting a distinct schedule for subsequent season, with the L.A. colleges, then altering once more for 2024.
Might the Pac-12 have a distinct algorithm for convention play to make it distinctive, like abandoning the kickoff and implementing XFL-style concepts? — @NIRVANwA
We just like the outside-the-box considering, however the Pac-12 can’t change the foundations, and right here’s why: The NCAA is chargeable for the enjoying guidelines, simply because it oversees the recruiting and competitors calendars.
The foundations for one convention are the identical as for all others, even in convention video games.
Ought to Arizona State and Colorado watch for the brand new media deal earlier than hiring new coaches? Looks as if the teaching budgets can be fairly instantly linked to the media income. — @chriswaz
ASU and Colorado should have head coaches in place by early December, earlier than the early signing window, in order that they don’t lose a complete recruiting class. And I’m undecided the media rights settlement can be accomplished by then — the method might seep into 2023.
However two months from now, the faculties ought to have a stable grasp of the media income and can be capable of construct their budgets off that quantity.
Frankly, the Hotline is of the mindset that each colleges ought to spend no matter cash is important to rent one of the best coach (and workers), then minimize from elsewhere if cuts are required.
As vital as soccer success is to athletic departments today, it would tackle even higher significance beneath the subsequent media contract cycle due to the rising income disparity inside the Energy 5.
Successful video games (and filling your stadium) is likely one of the few methods to restrict the hole.
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