With election day now simply over 5 weeks away, we peer into our crystal ball — which is foggier than a summer time morning in San Francisco — and reply questions.
Let’s get proper to it. Will Republicans take management of Congress?
I've completely no clue.
So what good are you?
That’s one thing my bosses have been asking for years.
Critically. Are issues that unsure?
Sure and no.
With the proviso that politics, like life, is stuffed with surprises, it appears fairly sure Republicans will take management of the Home for the primary time since they misplaced the bulk in 2018, within the final midterm election.
Defying polls and lots of, ahem, pundits, the GOP gained 14 Home seats in 2020 at the same time as President Trump misplaced the White Home. (If you happen to nonetheless insist on believing that election was stolen, it's possible you'll need to stop studying right here and go re-up your membership within the Flat Earth Society.)
Go on.
With that appreciable head begin, Republicans want solely 5 seats to take again the Home.
Heck, Republicans may achieve 4 seats in Florida alone, the place Gov. Ron DeSantis vetoed the handiwork of the GOP-run Legislature to push via a political map that’s much more egregiously slanted within the get together’s favor.
In fact, Republicans are additionally defending a variety of seats, together with a number of in California. However it might take one thing near a miracle for Democrats to hold onto the Home.
What concerning the Senate?
That’s far much less clear.
The chamber is cut up 50-50, with Democrats having fun with nominal management due to Vice President Kamala Harris, who's on everlasting standby to interrupt ties. That’s how President Biden has managed to go a great deal of his agenda.
Sure, however what concerning the election?
For a time, it appeared Republicans would decide up three or extra Senate seats, simply regaining the bulk they misplaced in January 2021.
However at this time the combat for management looks as if a toss-up.
A pair of uber-Trumpy nominees, Blake Masters in Arizona and Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, could have eliminated these states, which backed Biden in 2020, from the aggressive class for Republicans.
Democrats are additionally faring higher than anticipated, for the second anyway, in Republican-tilting Ohio and North Carolina.
So all of it comes all the way down to the Buckeye and Tar Heel states?
Most likely not.
Management of the Senate will probably be determined by 4 states: Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Biden carried every of these, however not by a lot.
In Nevada and Georgia, respectively, incumbents Catherine Cortez Masto and Raphael Warnock are defending Democratic-held seats, whereas Republican Ron Johnson is in search of his third time period in Wisconsin. The Senate race in Pennsylvania is for an open seat held by retiring Republican Patrick J. Toomey.
Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are trying higher for the GOP than that they had been, as Republicans more and more lean into the crime situation. So it may come all the way down to Nevada and Georgia.
A lot of the main target has been on Congress.
Considerably, you could have a number of states the place election deniers are working for governor, together with Arizona and Wisconsin — the place Republicans Kari Lake and Tim Michels, respectively, may trigger all types of hassle in the event that they win, gaining sway over the 2024 election in these presidential battlegrounds.
On the similar time, you could have Trump foot troopers working for secretary of state in a number of key states — amongst them Arizona, Michigan and Nevada — the place they might straight management the election equipment in 2024, threatening additional chicanery and chaos in service of the previous president’s Massive Lie.
Scary!
It's. We may insert some crack right here concerning the flat Earth, Santa Claus, the Tooth Fairy and different fictive issues folks consider in.
Nevertheless it’s no joke.
Mark Z. Barabak is a Los Angeles Occasions columnist.