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Please notice: Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
Does ESPN have each the Pac-12 and Massive 12 over a negotiating barrel? — @BruinSharman
Any updates on how the Pac-12 media negotiations are going? — @Vakaviti
Two questions centered on the convention’s existential disaster that appear notably well timed given what we expect we all know in regards to the negotiations.
I framed it that means as a result of we don’t actually know. The Pac-12 has executed a superb job up to now of stopping leaks. That’s unlucky for us however good for the convention, as a result of the worry of leaks can influence inside belief and strategic choices.
However right here’s our guess …
When the Pac-12 introduced in early July that the presidents and chancellors had licensed commissioner George Kliavkoff to start media rights negotiations, it prevented any reference to the timing: No date was given for the beginning of the 30-day unique negotiating window for ESPN and Fox.
We imagine that window was delayed till the Massive Ten concluded its media deal, which was introduced Aug. 18.
If the Pac-12’s unique negotiating interval opened days later, then it might be coming to a detailed proper about now.
And that meshes with the remark earlier this week, by New York Put up media reporter Andrew Marchand, that ESPN and the Pac-12 are a whole bunch of tens of millions of dollars aside.
If the 30-day window is closing this week or subsequent, then it might be about time for ESPN to put a agency provide on the desk. And that provide could possibly be properly wanting Pac-12 expectations.
We by no means anticipated the convention to signal an settlement in the course of the unique interval. All indicators pointed to Kliavkoff taking the stock to the marketplace and in search of bids from different corporations. (In spite of everything, why would ESPN bid in opposition to itself?)
The report in regards to the two sides being “a whole bunch of tens of millions” aside — if we assume that’s true for the needs of this train — doesn’t come as a shock.
If, for instance, the Pac-12 requested for $400 million over 5 years and ESPN countered with $330 million over 5 years, that’s a distinction of $350 million. It doesn’t imply the edges will find yourself that far aside.
However therein lies the trick for the convention, and why these negotiations have been all the time going to be troublesome: The shortage of competitors for its stock.
NBC, CBS and Turner don’t look like critical gamers. And we’re skeptical about Fox’s curiosity — that community already has what it needs (the Los Angeles market) by its cope with the Massive Ten.
So the Pac-12’s best choice for competitors seemingly is from Amazon, which is each good and unhealthy.
It’s good as a result of Amazon has loads of money and doubtless would pay the Pac-12 greater than the video games are literally price — the worth for the corporate comes from the advertising and marketing advantages, not the soccer itself.
Nevertheless it’s unhealthy as a result of Amazon doesn’t present most visibility or media messaging alternatives. ESPN drives the narrative in faculty soccer, and the Pac-12 should have a partnership with ESPN in some type or vogue.
(Amazon made what we’re informed is a robust provide for a chunk of the Massive Ten’s soccer stock, however the convention handed as a result of it was involved about being sequestered on Amazon. Money is vital, however so are eyeballs.)
That’s one benefit for the Massive 12, in our opinion. We imagine each ESPN and Fox have an interest within the Massive 12, partially as a result of its basketball model is robust. (ESPN isn’t a part of the Massive Ten rights settlement and, because of this, wants Massive 12 basketball to fill the stock calls for for ESPN+.)
Once you slice and cube the whole lot, it turns into clear that the Massive 12 has some benefits over the Pac-12 and the Pac-12 has some benefits over the Massive 12. And that’s precisely why we imagine the conferences are in roughly the identical place.
Certainly one of them will find yourself with a media rights deal price a number of million dollars extra per college than the opposite, however the distinction received’t be transformational — not like the large income bump that USC and UCLA will obtain within the Massive Ten.
On the similar time, the 2 leagues have been stripped of their most beneficial belongings over the previous 14 months and can, to a sure extent, have to just accept no matter ESPN and/or Fox is keen to supply.
The networks received’t miss an opportunity to drive down the worth, particularly given what they're paying for the SEC and Massive Ten.
If the Thursday night time NFL recreation on Amazon Prime will get unhealthy rankings, would that be a priority to the Pac-12? — @LAWomensHoops
I don’t suppose so, primarily as a result of the expectations are low.
Based on the Wall Road Journal, Thursday Night time Soccer averaged 16.4 million viewers when Fox owned the sport.
Amazon projected a mean viewership of 12.6 million for this season, its first because the unique supplier, per the WSJ.
It may take weeks or maybe months — and possibly a number of years — to achieve that viewers degree, a lot much less equal what Fox drew every week.
The query for the Pac-12 is whether or not Amazon Prime will develop into a mainstream platform for soccer viewing. And in that case, when?
Our hunch: After the Pac-12’s subsequent contract cycle begins (fall of 2024) however earlier than that contract cycle ends (spring of 2029, in all probability).
The convention was watching Thursday night time extra for the manufacturing worth and streaming high quality (glitches, latency, and many others) than for rankings.
I understand income distributions nonetheless must be ironed out for the 12-team Faculty Soccer Playoff. However assuming a $2.2 billion (annual) media rights deal, what's your greatest guess for the anticipated minimal payout to the Pac-12? — @TerryTerry79
The present broadcast settlement for the CFP (and the New 12 months’s Six bowls that don’t host playoffs) is reportedly price about $670 million per yr.
Of that, 63 p.c is a base cost to the conferences. And of that, about 67 p.c goes to the Energy 5.
My hunch is the efficiency share will enhance from 37 p.c to nearer to 50 p.c within the expanded model — extra for the SEC and Massive Ten, which determine to dominate the sector.
So let’s assume half of the $2.2 billion turns into a base cost to the leagues. Subsequent, take two-thirds of that fifty p.c because the Energy 5 allocation. That’s about $750 million.
Cut up that 5 methods, and the Pac-12 would acquire $150 million yearly — greater than twice its present annual quantity.
If there are solely 10 groups, that might be $15 million per staff, in comparison with the $6 million or so every college presently collects.
That’s a very tough have a look at the numbers.
What do you suppose the probabilities are that the UC Regents forestall UCLA from shifting to the Massive Ten? — @kentura82
There was no change in our outlook because the mid-August assembly through which the Regents established the authority to squash the transfer.
That might be a momentous step, not just for this particular state of affairs however for different issues (athletic, educational or in any other case) involving the ten campuses within the UC system.
I’d set the possibilities of a reversal at 10-to-15 p.c, which isn’t excessive but additionally isn’t nothing.
And that makes the state of affairs price monitoring.
Any likelihood of the Pac-12 convincing USC and UCLA to reverse course and stay within the convention, particularly with the brand new Faculty Soccer Playoff format? — Gerard Limtiaco
This can be a totally different query than the one addressed above: Would both college willingly decide to stay within the Pac-12?
There isn't any likelihood USC has a change of coronary heart — none, zero, zip.
The Bruins would solely change willingly if the Regents ordered them to subsidize Cal to such an extent ($10 million or extra yearly) that the transfer wasn’t worthwhile financially.
And in that occasion, it actually wouldn’t be a keen reversal.
As an Related Press top-25 voter, are you able to clarify why Texas A&M (No. 24) is ranked whereas Oregon State and Washington State aren't? — Jon Joseph
I don’t have a solution for you. The AP provides voters a large berth for figuring out their ballots however emphasizes that outcomes ought to function the North Star.
— Washington State beat Idaho and received at No. 19 Wisconsin.
— Oregon State beat Boise State and Fresno State.
— In the meantime, Texas A&M beat Sam Houston State and misplaced (at dwelling) to Appalachian State.
And but the Aggies are ranked whereas WSU, OSU and Appalachian State aren't.
You can not make a results-based argument for the Aggies over any of the three, which means the one believable explanations are 1) model bias or 2) ignorance.
Who's on the Pac-12 sizzling seat this yr? — @RealWebTraveler
Karl Dorrell’s seat is gaining warmth by the week, regardless that that is simply his third season. Sure, Colorado’s roster is younger, however the product has been horrible so far.
If the present trajectory continues, he could possibly be in jeopardy of dismissal by the tip of November.
Arizona State coach Herm Edwards seemingly has a murky future due to the NCAA investigation, though the 68-year-old Edwards would possibly simply retire earlier than the axe falls.
We’d argue that David Shaw’s seat is thawing quickly at Stanford, however I’m unsure his job is in jeopardy this yr, or any yr.
In case you embrace males’s basketball within the sizzling seat calculation, the choices increase: Cal’s Mark Fox, ASU’s Bobby Hurley, Oregon State’s Wayne Tinkle and even perhaps Stanford’s Jerod Haase could possibly be susceptible to termination by March.
If Oregon State one way or the other upsets USC and beats Montana State to go 4-0, is it cheap to warrant excessive expectations? I received’t say playoff however possibly a excessive rating and New 12 months’s Six bowl? — @OhItsPM
Unsure I'd begin dreaming of the New 12 months’s Six simply but, even with a victory over the Trojans.
Two issues are equally true: OSU has been spectacular thus far, and there's a lengthy, lengthy technique to go.
To be thought-about for an at-large berth — the Cotton is the one bowl accessible this season due to the semifinal rotation (Peach and Fiesta) — the Beavers would want a minimal of 10 wins. And to look within the Rose Bowl, they would want to win the convention title.
I've seen nothing to point OSU has the expertise or depth to navigate the weekly grind with only one or two losses. Their margin-for-error in that endeavor is microscopic.
However we now have been shocked earlier than, and that might be one heck of a narrative.
Does the development at Oregon State’s Reser Stadium work in opposition to the Beavers when TV networks are deciding on video games, or passing the Beavers off to the Pac-12 Community? — @Jschamber2
Truthful query and one which I can't communicate to with full confidence — solely Fox and ESPN know for certain.
However I doubt the development is an element within the weekly draft course of. The networks need the most effective matchups, and the renovation doesn’t influence the dimensions of the viewers.
ESPN and Fox handed on the Oregon State-USC recreation (Sept. 24) as a result of they wish to protect as a lot entry to the Trojans later within the season as potential, when their video games are most significant and viewership the very best (in principle).
USC should seem on the Pac-12 Networks at the very least 3 times (to match their variety of non-conference dwelling video games). Had Fox or ESPN chosen the Sept. 24 matchup, they might have diminished by one the variety of USC video games accessible for his or her broadcasts later within the season.
Anybody from the Pac-12 more likely to be on the quick listing at Nebraska? — @MattRexroad
Given what occurred the final time the Cornhuskers employed a Pac-12 head coach (Oregon State’s Mike Riley), I’m deeply skeptical the varsity would look to the West Coast for Scott Frost’s alternative.
Washington State coach Jake Dickert has roots within the Higher Midwest and, with a extra completed resume, could be thought-about a candidate the following time Nebraska has a gap.
However the Huskers are lucky in that there are a number of premium choices of their neighborhood with Kansas State’s Chris Klieman and Kansas’ Lance Leipold.
Do you suppose Washington is again? — @ChantryStarr
I imagine so, however test Saturday at 7:30 p.m. for affirmation.
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