Do California last-place wage gains signal economic trouble?

The “Trying Glass” ponders financial and actual property tendencies via two distinct lenses: the optimist’s “glass half-full” and the pessimist’s “glass half-empty.”

Buzz: California added probably the most staff in a 12 months and was No. 3 within the nation for job development. However the state additionally had the smallest wage hikes.

Supply: My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the quarterly tally of hiring and pay stats from employer data. This knowledge is way extra correct than the month-to-month survey knowledge we regularly talk about although these quarterly calculations take time to finish. So, this employment evaluation is predicated on the 12 months ending in March.

Debate: What’s behind the break up efficiency?

Glass half-full

California added probably the most new staff — 1.27 million in a 12 months, or 18% of the 7 million added nationally. Subsequent got here Texas at 743,591, Florida at 529,204, New York at 513,584, and New Jersey at 274,642.

Now California is the biggest job market with 17.7 million staff or 12% of the 148 million nationally. So the state is commonly excessive on many hiring tallies.

Nonetheless, if you account for the state’s huge job market, California ranked No. 3 for job development on this interval at 7.7% — topping the 5% nationwide hiring tempo.

High development? Nevada at 11.6% then Hawaii at 8%. Simply after California was New Jersey at 7.2%, and Texas and Florida at 6.1%

Worst? Louisiana at 1.4%, then Nebraska at 1.5%, Iowa at 2.5%, Kansas at 2.5%, and Alabama at 2.5%.

Glass half-empty

California is expensive for employers with the fifth-highest common weekly wage at $1,644 — 20% above the $1,374 nationwide.

Larger pay is in DC at $2,221, then New York at $1,972, Massachusetts at $1,827, and Connecticut at $1,716. The smallest wages have been present in Mississippi at $879, then West Virginia at $968, Idaho at $982, and Montana at $991.

And Texas? No. 12 at $1,369. Florida? No. 23 at $1,222.

However this benchmark of California pay was up simply 1% over 12 months — far under 6.6% nationwide development and the smallest achieve among the many states.

After California on the backside of this rating got here then Maryland at 2%, DC at 2.6%, Washington state at 3.8%, and Hawaii at 4.2%.

Tops? Wyoming at 11.2%, then Arkansas at 11%, Florida at 10.8%, Maine at 10.3%, and Indiana at 10%. And Texas? No. 14 at 8.7%.

Backside line

In March 2021, the California economic system was nonetheless iced by coronavirus enterprise restrictions. This hit leisure and hospitality staff the toughest — and it’s a gaggle with determined low pay.

It’s a key motive why the statewide weekly wage was up 11.6% — the largest one-year bounce within the U.S. — as a result of lack of these staff who beforehand served up “enjoyable” at eating, tourism and leisure companies

By March 2022, leisure and hospitality jobs rebounded — and that’s a key motive why California’s common weekly wages barely moved within the 12-month interval.

Politically talking

It’s a 12 months of midterm election insanity, so let’s take a look at this knowledge via a partisan prism — “blue” states (those who supported President Biden within the 2020 election) and “crimson” states that didn’t help him.

Blue states have 86 million jobs — 39% greater than the crimson’s 62 million. And wages in blue are 28% greater — $1,513 vs. $1,181.

But it surely’s a what-have-you-done-for-me world, sure?

Job development was greater in blue states, 5.5% in a 12 months vs. 4.4%. However wage development was greater on crimson states, 9% vs. 5.3%.

Jonathan Lansner is the enterprise columnist for the Southern California Information Group. He could be reached at jlansner@scng.com

 

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