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Please word: Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
Why ought to the so-called 4 Corners faculties keep within the convention when Oregon, Washington and Stanford will proceed soliciting the Large Ten, even when there's a brief time period grant-of-rights signed? — @CjAzWildlifeLaw
We all know why Oregon State and Washington State will settle for any proposal. However why ought to Utah, Colorado and the Arizona faculties be held at ransom by Oregon, Washington and Stanford when they may go away on the first alternative? — @DamonDawg
That is the added complication — the very cause the Hotline views Pac-12 survival as merely a four-point favourite over Pac-12 extinction.
(That’s on a impartial discipline, by the way in which.)
Had been the calculation solely about annual income, survival could be a considerable favourite. We imagine Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah would favor to stay within the Pac-12, and there’s no indication that both league has a big benefit in future income.
However the long-haul stability concern actually have to be thought-about.
The Hotline doesn't imagine the Large Ten will broaden once more this decade. In our estimation, Notre Dame will signal a brand new take care of NBC and stay Unbiased, limiting the Large Ten’s choices.
However admittedly, that’s a precarious assumption for the 4 Corners faculties.
At this level, the problem for commissioner George Kliavkoff is crafting a contract that gives flexibility for Washington, Oregon and Stanford and safety for the others.
That might be a six-or eight-year take care of an opt-out clause in case the Large Ten comes calling.
Why would the 4 Corners agree?
Welp, Utah received’t signal a 10- or 12-year take care of the Large 12, and we aren’t certain Arizona State would, both.
These faculties need flexibility in case the long-anticipated FBS break up unfolds and the decision comes from the higher tier. (The Phoenix media market is No. 1, per Nielsen DMAs.)
The opposite concern is timing:
The Pac-12 is negotiating its media deal now and can provide faculties a written contract; the Large 12 can not negotiate for 2 years and, in consequence, is proscribed to providing projections and guarantees.
If the income is true, Kliavkoff’s activity turns into vastly simpler.
Rumor is that ESPN was in on the SEC grabbing Oklahoma and Texas, and Fox was in on the Large Ten grabbing USC and UCLA. In relation to Pac-10 enlargement, is ESPN actually the one making the alternatives? — @brycetacoma
It’s hardly a rumor. ESPN and Fox drove the SEC and Large Ten enlargement strikes — they're the grandmasters within the realignment sport.
And within the case of Fox Inc., … err, the Large Ten … firm executives are taking part within the league’s negotiations with different media companions.
ESPN would be the dominant power within the Pac-12’s course of, for higher or worse for the convention:
Both it gobbles up many of the stock at a passable valuation or lowers the bar for everybody by merely nibbling.
Can we cease speaking about realignment for a second and understand we’re lower than 30 days from kickoff? Nothing will occur till subsequent yr; the continual hypothesis is pointless. — @TheRealK333
Beg to vary right here.
Decision is probably going this fall, and we'll cowl realignment repeatedly by its conclusion — the problem is way too essential to disregard.
That mentioned, the Hotline shall be ramping up protection of soccer subsequent week.
What are the highest 5 on-the-field storylines for the Pac-12 throughout coaching camp? — @GavinN
Truly, we wrote about that subject earlier this week.
Odds of some form of TV deal between the Pac-12 and the ACC? — @bfedotin
Fairly good … maybe higher than 50/50.
ESPN might create a media partnership based mostly on every league’s Tier 3 infrastructure, combining the ACC Community with the Pac-12 Community to create extra subscribers, and income.
For all their issues with distribution, the Pac-12 Networks are on the innovative with their distant broadcast expertise.
We wrote about that not too long ago, too.
Please expound in your feedback yesterday concerning the advantages of merging the Pac-12 and the Large 12. — @dun1870gc
The Hotline first addressed the advantages of a merger or scheduling alliance three years in the past and continues to imagine that’s one of the best end result for each leagues.
The dispersal of campuses throughout time zones would enable media companions to indicate quadruple-headers and generate sufficient income and aggressive worth to marginalize the ACC and stay related in an expanded playoff.
However given the trade of barbs between the commissioners, it’s extraordinarily unlikely at this level. (And one in all them would lose his job within the course of.)
We lined the state of affairs in depth a number of weeks in the past.
I do know UCLA and Oklahoma disregarded ties to Cal and Oklahoma State with their convention strikes, however do you suppose Oregon and Washington would go away the Pac-12 with out Oregon State and Washington State? Ought to Pac-12 followers really feel safer about this? — @FlockRon
UCLA’s break from Cal might make it troublesome for Oregon or Washington to depart their in-state rivals behind, partly as a result of the problem is front-and-center earlier than the Geese or Huskies try an escape.
However we aren’t conscious of politics blocking realignment on the Energy 5 stage for the reason that early Nineties, when former Texas Gov. Ann Richards prevented the Longhorns from becoming a member of the Pac-12 by insisting that Baylor be included.
State legislatures would possibly make it troublesome for the Geese and Huskies to maneuver, however might they stop it? I’m skeptical.
Nevertheless, the mere considered political pushback would possibly lead the Large Ten to easily invite Stanford as an alternative of Oregon or Washington if/when the time comes.
Will you rank the Mountain West groups within the order that they are going to be added to the Pac-12? — @losquangeles
I’m unsure that any shall be added, but when there’s motion …
1. San Diego State
2. Fresno State
3. UNLV
And please word: SDSU is on a unique tier for causes outlined beforehand.
We give the Aztecs a 50 p.c probability of getting in. No person else is above 25 p.c.
Why so sluggish on including San Diego State? Is it due to the Aztecs or the dearth of an excellent choice to pair with them? — @flintaeroinc
Nothing has slowed down the method. If the Pac-12 decides to broaden, any substantive developments are weeks, if not months away.
And sure, the dearth of an apparent twelfth staff might be problematic for the Aztecs.
What's going on with the Pac-12 negotiating window? Wasn’t Thursday the final day? — @KLDUB4LIFEWILEY
It was, if the method really started the day after the Pac-12 introduced it could begin formal contract negotiations.
However as we famous on Thursday, the unique window for ESPN and Fox probably has been prolonged to account for the continuing Large Ten negotiations.
The Pac-12 would wish to know which networks have grabbed a bit of the Large Ten’s media rights, whereas ESPN and Fox would wish to know precisely what they’re spending on the Large Ten.
Finest guess:
The unique window extends into September, no deal is reached, the Pac-12 takes its stock to the open market and determination is available in September or October.
Are you aware if the Large Ten is negotiating a media contract with and with out UCLA within the bundle? Possibly the Pac-12 is doing the identical? — @SpaceHomme2
I can not communicate to the Large Ten’s inside course of, however I might assume the Pac-12 and its consultants ran the numbers with UCLA included precisely one minute after Gov. Gavin Newsom entered the fray just a few weeks in the past.
Our sense is that a reversal after all in Westwood, nonetheless unlikely — and it’s extraordinarily unlikely — would end in restricted lack of media rights for the Pac-12.
With the Bruins included within the grant-of-rights contract, ESPN could be extraordinarily motivated to safe an unique deal.
It desires a bit of the Southern California market.
What “listening to” is going down in October with reference to UCLA’s choice? What's the goal of the listening to? — @nickbeatty72
First, there's confusion concerning the timing: UCLA is required to submit a report on the Large Ten transfer to Newsom and the UC Board of Regents by Aug. 17.
At that time, we would achieve extra readability on the endgame.
Extra probably, Newsom and the regents will take the data, talk about with their authorized advisors and numerous energy brokers throughout the state legislature, and finally provide a response.
They can not block the transfer, however they will make it painful for the Bruins the place it issues most: the pockets.
Finest school city within the Pac-12? — @LongLiveMonty
Eugene.
And Tucson.
Additionally, Boulder.
What streaming companies is likely to be in play for convention rights? Is there one which’s below the radar that you simply suppose would possibly make a play? — @wsubrady27
Kliavkoff raised just a few eyebrows final week at Pac-12 media day when he mentioned, “It’s extremely probably that we'll find yourself with an enormous digital accomplice for a few of our rights.”
Sure, that might be Apple or Amazon, that are slowly buying sports activities rights.
Nevertheless it additionally might imply ESPN+, Paramount (CBS) or Peacock (NBC).
The brand new media bundle options three tiers: broadcast tv, pay-TV/cable, and digital. If the Pac-12 indicators a brand new rights bundle — that’s not assured, in our opinion — it should assuredly embody all three tiers.
I might guess towards an “under-the-radar” streaming accomplice until the bundle has been sub-licensed from the first rights-holders.
Who's your favourite Large 12 persona? — @Doctor_alesmith
Mike Leach.
In case you put up a thread of your prime 20 favourite Large 12 direct messages, I’ll join a one-year subscription to the San Jose Mercury Information. — @TheJugg801
No approach I might restrict that checklist to twenty.
In gentle of this summer season’s information, what’s your energy rating of essentially the most poisonous convention in America, fan-wise? The Large 12 needs to be close to the highest. — @cgboan
Nonsense. The Large 12 followers are passionate.
My solely requirement when interacting with followers on social media is that they don’t get private, and Large 12 followers haven’t.
The exchanges have been totally pleasant — interplay on public platforms is wholesome — and I hope all 22 remaining faculties emerge from this chaos on stable floor financially.
Right here’s why:
The chance for hundreds of faculty athletes within the Olympic sports activities throughout the nation is in danger throughout realignment.
If media income drops precipitously in Raleigh or Ames or Tucson because of soccer consolidation over the approaching years, these sports activities shall be on the chopping block.
The funding for NCAA sports activities that function within the crimson should come from someplace, and — information flash — it’s not coming from the engineering division, campus housing or eating companies.
Presidents and chancellors received’t overhaul their enterprise fashions to bail out money-losing sports activities applications if the soccer media income vanishes.
These sports activities shall be minimize. All these alternatives shall be misplaced.
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