The Hotline mailbag is revealed each week. Ship inquiries to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline.
Please be aware: Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
What’s the timeline wanting like for the Pac-12 to decide on growth? Do you assume it’ll be wrapped up by the point the convention makes its media rights deal public subsequent yr (or later)? — @cgboan
More than likely, a call on growth and the act of signing a brand new media rights settlement will unfold concurrently.
In our estimation, the course of occasions will observe considered one of two paths:
— The Pac-12 indicators an unique take care of ESPN, as a 10-school convention, within the subsequent two or three weeks.
— The Pac-12 negotiates with a number of bidders on the open market and takes a tough have a look at growth in a course of that consumes six-to-eight weeks, if not longer.
The Massive Ten simply introduced a brand new media rights settlement after six months (roughly) of negotiations. This stuff take time, except you have got a killer deal on the desk. And there's no motive to anticipate ESPN to make a killer provide initially, if in any respect.
So let’s assume the Pac-12 hits the open market. The negotiations will undoubtedly embody growth eventualities and income fashions for numerous outcomes and faculties.
The necessity for stock to fill sufficient time slots to fulfill potential companions may play a task. Extra groups equates to extra video games and extra programming hours.
The presidents and chancellors will (presumably) choose the choice that gives the most effective mixture of income for all, flexibility for faculties hoping to affix the Massive Ten, and stability for the remainder of the membership.
That’s a steep problem and the explanation we've got put in Pac-12 survival as a mere 4.5-point favourite over Pac-12 extinction: It’s the most definitely end result however hardly a assure based mostly on present dynamics.
If the convention opts to increase, that course of would delay the signing of a media rights settlement due to numerous authorized and convention governance points.
Once more, look to the Massive Ten for timeline perception: USC and UCLA joined on June 30, however the deal wasn’t finalized for seven extra weeks.
If the Pac-12 decides to increase, it’s not unreasonable to assume the method (including members and signing a media contract) may span your entire soccer season.
Will Fox additionally get, or need, a share of the rights to broadcast Pac-12 soccer? — @matt_schnuck
That’s a essential situation, and one with appreciable uncertainty.
Our sources within the media house are skeptical that Fox will bid on Pac-12 content material, and the absence of a Fox digital arm definitely doesn’t assist the Pac-12’s trigger.
Nevertheless, it’s vital to recollect the community at present owns the printed rights to 22 soccer video games every season, a lot of them on FS1.
That’s about 80 hours of programming, and it can't all be full of Massive Ten and Massive 12 video games — except, in fact, Fox plans to desert the 7:30 p.m. Pacific window.
Usually, networks are loath to relinquish sports activities content material they already personal, however the dynamics within the faculty soccer programming world have modified considerably up to now few months.
The Massive Ten is “not finished but” with growth. Does that appear like extra of a warning to the Pac-12, Massive 12, ACC, Notre Dame or another person solely? — @JesseKolodkin
It’s not a warning to Notre Dame, which is looking its personal photographs. If something, it may sign the Massive Ten is holding out hope of grabbing the Irish in a number of years.
And it’s not a warning to the Massive 12, which has no properties of use to the Massive Ten.
However the Pac-12 and ACC are susceptible to future poaching, the previous greater than the latter: With a grant-of-rights settlement that extends into the mid-2030s, the ACC is best defended in opposition to raids by the Massive Ten and SEC; the Pac-12’s grant of rights deal expires in two years.
(That stated, we consider North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech may very well be on the Massive Ten’s radar sooner or later based mostly on a mixture of educational clout, media worth, and recruiting pipelines.)
The present scenario is unprecedented.
Each utterance from the Massive Ten about additional growth, whether or not it’s a pronouncement by commissioner Kevin Warren or an nameless supply, is taken as a right away menace to the Pac-12’s survival.
We see room for nuance:
Positive, these feedback may very well be taken to imply invites for Washington, Oregon, Stanford and presumably Cal are mere weeks or months away.
However the Massive Ten may not increase once more for a few years, and it would solely increase once more if Notre Dame is concerned.
All we all know is that presumptions are dangerous in the case of realignment.
Is there any probability that Utah will get an invitation to the Massive Ten together with Oregon and Washington? Or is it Cal/Stanford over Utah simply due to market measurement and politics? Is it not sufficient to be nice at soccer? — @UtefanNick
We’ll reply the final query, in regards to the significance of being nice at soccer, with eight phrases: Rutgers is a member of the Massive Ten.
Growth selections are made on three valuation ranges: institutional (educational) worth, aggressive worth, and media worth. The income piece will get probably the most consideration, for good motive, but it surely’s not the one driver.
We don’t envision a path for Utah into the Massive Ten except the Energy 5 construction utterly implodes and the league settles on an eight-team western division with the 4 California faculties, Oregon, Washington, the Utes and one different program.
That’s extraordinarily unlikely based mostly on the present atmosphere. However once more, by no means say by no means with realignment.
What are the percentages of a Pac-12 collapse if the Massive Ten poaches Stanford, Cal, Washington, and Oregon in 2024? — @rwgriswold4
100%.
In that situation, a complete of six faculties can be headed to the Massive Ten, and the 4 Corners (Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah) would undoubtedly go away for the Massive 12.
Positive, the convention may reform with Oregon State, Washington State and a slew of Mountain West faculties, however it might be the Pac-12 in identify solely.
What if UCLA had tried to carry Cal into the negotiations with Fox, the Massive Ten and USC on the outset? If each UC faculties would have taken a severe low cost, may a deal have been swung that included Cal within the transfer? — @paul_raich
First, UCLA wasn’t taking a reduced share — your entire motive for the transfer was to gather sufficient income to repay the athletic division’s debt and assist the sports activities packages transferring ahead.
I've not confirmed that UCLA inquired about membership for Cal, however that’s nonetheless a definite chance. And if the Bruins made the try, Fox would have whispered to the Massive Ten that the numbers didn’t work.
In truth, the numbers don’t work for any single Bay Space or Pacific Northwest faculty — none of them carry sufficient media worth to extend the share measurement for present Massive Ten members.
They solely work as a gaggle, if the intent is to create a West Coast division.
Can UC regents block a legally binding settlement made by a chancellor to whom they granted such authority with out vital damaging penalties? — @tkz33272766
All of it is determined by what paperwork the Bruins have signed with the Massive Ten, and we aren’t at present aware about that info.
If the regents’ math is appropriate about USC being 30 % of the convention worth, forcing UCLA to remain will price the UC system at greatest $35 million a yr, and at worst $65 million per yr, appropriate? — @JohnmyMacJr
I don't consider that math will in the end show appropriate.
The Los Angeles market could be price 30 %, however the Trojans themselves aren't.
We dove into the valuations Saturday morning.
What if the Pac-12 added Gonzaga? May they make the income work with a faculty that doesn’t play soccer? It might be a powerhouse basketball league and possibly make sure that Oregon and Washington keep. — @Josh_Suchon
My sense is that basketball-only growth isn't at present on the desk.
It merely doesn’t drive income: Roughly 85 cents for each media greenback spent on faculty sports activities is earmarked for soccer.
If Gonzaga is headed anyplace, it’s the Massive East.
And if Oregon and Washington get the decision from the Massive Ten, they’re leaving regardless.
What number of Pac-12 groups shall be within the top-25 on the finish of the soccer season? @022SportsGuy
4: Utah, Oregon, USC and UCLA.
Help the Hotline: Obtain three months of limitless entry for simply 99 cents. Yep, that’s 99 cents for 90 days, with the choice to cancel anytime. Particulars are right here, and thanks in your assist.
*** Ship ideas, feedback and ideas (confidentiality assured) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or name 408-920-5716
*** Observe me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline isn't endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Convention, and the views expressed herein don't essentially replicate the views of the Convention.