In coming days, weeks and months, the Pac-12 will plot a course to salvation … or go the best way of the dodo.
A variety of outcomes exists following the lack of USC and UCLA to the Large Ten, from merging with a peer convention or increasing its ranks to sticking with 10 colleges or vanishing from the panorama altogether.
In an upcoming Hotline sequence, we’ll plunge into the particular situations.
This introductory installment examines 5 broad points that can form our discussions and the way forward for the convention.
1. Pac-12 presidents: The warmth is on
Survival begins on the high, which ought to be trigger for concern throughout the footprint.
The convention has been pushed to the brink as a result of the presidents and chancellors didn’t prioritize soccer, signed off on unhealthy media methods and waited too lengthy to vary commissioners.
Now, they have to choose an identification for the reconfigured convention and decide which universities clear the barrier for entry.
Will the membership requirements in place for many years live on with regard to tutorial status, political leanings and spiritual affiliation?
In that case, the trail ahead narrows significantly.
Of all of the presidents, we marvel most about Washington’s Ana Mari Cauce, who took over as chair of the Pac-12 board on Friday.
If the Huskies finally negotiate behind-the-scenes for invites to the Large Ten or Large 12, that’s a large battle of curiosity.
2. Anxious days, worrisome nights
The following two weeks are very important. “We'd like issues to decelerate,” one Pac-12 supply stated, to ensure that a degree of belief and sanity to return.
In the mean time, convention and campus leaders collect on Zoom calls and marvel who’s actually dedicated and whose face they is perhaps seeing for the final time.
The Large Ten seems completed with growth, for now, so our focus turns to the Large 12 and its degree of aggression.
A yr in the past, the state of affairs was reversed. Texas and Oklahoma had introduced plans to maneuver to the SEC, and the Large 12 was combating for survival.
The Pac-12 declined to merge however, by not poaching essentially the most fascinating colleges, allowed the Large 12 to outlive.
Will the emboldened Large 12 flip round and try a kill shot, or return the favor and stand down?
3. Media companion motivation
For 10 years, Fox and ESPN have been equal house owners of the Pac-12’s media rights.
That shared curiosity in all probability received’t proceed as soon as the present contract expires within the spring of 2024.
Fox orchestrated what may very well be the knockout blow and is the puppet-master behind the Large Ten’s raid of the Los Angeles colleges.
The transfer means that Fox could have little curiosity in Pac-12 media rights within the subsequent contract cycle. Most, if not all of its money will likely be spent on the Large Ten and the expanded School Soccer Playoff.
In the meantime, ESPN may play a key position in rescuing the Pac-12.
When the subsequent contract cycle begins, ESPN will management all ACC and SEC soccer content material however maybe little or no — or none — of the Large Ten’s stock.
That’s vital, as a result of ESPN has extra shelf area than Fox because of extra linear networks (ESPN2) and its dedication to a digital platform (ESPN+).
It wants viable faculty soccer within the Central, Mountain and Pacific time zones so as to fill all these broadcast home windows.
Given the desperation degree of the Pac-12 and Large 12, whose present media deal expires in 2025, their stock will undoubtedly be out there for no matter worth ESPN is keen to pay.
ESPN can identify the phrases and, if desired, dictate which colleges are wherein league.
4. The tent pole colleges
Of the 80-something main faculty soccer applications not sure to the SEC, Large Ten or ACC — and are usually not Notre Dame — the Pac-12 owns the 2 most dear within the media market: Washington and Oregon.
If we assume the door to the Large Ten is closed and the Huskies and Geese are dedicated to the Pac-12, if just for lack of supreme choices, they supply actual leverage.
Leverage the convention can use with ESPN or different media corporations.
Leverage the convention can use with colleges within the Large 12 or Mountain West that is perhaps growth targets.
Leverage the convention can use with present Pac-12 colleges pondering a bounce to the Large 12.
With the Huskies and Geese, there's a basis to maneuver ahead.
The Pac-12 should make optimum use of its purple and inexperienced carrots.
5. State college politics
UCLA’s separation from Cal — the campuses share the identical college system and board of regents — is considered one of our lingering curiosities in regards to the L.A. departures.
And the way forward for the Pac-12 may hinge on the diploma to which remaining state colleges are sure to maneuver in lockstep.
Might Arizona State bolt for the Large 12 and depart Arizona behind?
Might Washington head to the Large Ten (finally) and kiss WSU goodbye?
Might Oregon do no matter Phil Knight needs with out regard for Oregon State?
Political forces range by the state, and we received’t start to guess how every state of affairs may play out.
However it’s a key piece to the Pac-12’s future form … or disappearance.
Assist the Hotline: Obtain three months of limitless entry for simply 99 cents. Yep, that’s 99 cents for 90 days, with the choice to cancel anytime. Particulars are right here, and thanks in your assist.
*** Ship options, feedback and ideas (confidentiality assured) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or name 408-920-5716
*** Comply with me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline shouldn't be endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Convention, and the views expressed herein don't essentially replicate the views of the Convention.