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Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
Is there any chance the Pac-12 might increase previous the 12 groups? — @cool_brezze
On the other of enlargement, may you envision the convention enhancing income distribution by way of contraction as a substitute? It may be one of the best ways to considerably enhance per-team income by reducing out weaker hyperlinks with much less TV enchantment. — @TJAltimore
Final week, we addressed the potential of 4 Pac-12 faculties leaving the convention for the Large Ten, so let’s begin with two different realignment choices:
Bringing faculties into the fold; and expelling longtime members.
From right here, it’s clear the Pac-12 would solely increase if new members may improve media worth for the collective and keep, or enhance, the league’s aggressive place.
Commissioner George Kliavkoff and his workforce dove into the subject final summer time and concluded the very best transfer was no transfer.
Not one of the faculties within the reconfigured Large 12 or within the present Mountain West met the barrier for entry.
Texas and Oklahoma have been the one school soccer manufacturers sufficiently big to considerably enhance the Pac-12’s strategic and monetary place. As soon as they agreed to affix the SEC, the Pac-12 was left observing the established order.
We wouldn’t dare ignore the potential for the convention to revisit enlargement sooner or later. (In our view, Houston ought to be the No. 1 choice.)
Nevertheless it seems there might be 12 faculties, not 14 or 16, when the convention agrees to a brand new media rights deal someday subsequent yr.
And which means no contraction, both.
I assume your reference to “weaker hyperlinks with much less TV enchantment” means Washington State and Oregon State — the faculties usually cited by followers when this matter surfaces on social media.
Properly, now we have information for you: The vast majority of faculties have little or zero enchantment to media companions.
ESPN and Fox and different media networks serious about Pac-12 content material need the rights to indicate USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington and maybe Utah. The remaining groups merely present the stock, the video games.
(What about Arizona males’s basketball? Properly, soccer accounts for roughly 90 cents of each media greenback spent on the Pac-12. Basketball barely strikes the needle.)
There are different components inside the contraction dialogue, beginning with the unseemly nature of establishments of upper training booting members with shared tutorial missions — all within the title of athletic dollars.
In an excessive state of affairs, any transfer to expulsion would require a super-majority vote of the presidents, and people from the low-revenue faculties undoubtedly would block the vote.
Additionally, be aware of the political concerns.
Makes an attempt to separate WSU from Washington can be taken up in Olympia, whereas an analogous pursuit in Oregon would find yourself in Salem.
In California, a transfer to detach UCLA from Cal undoubtedly would contain the Board of Regents, for the reason that faculties are a part of the identical college system. (Arizona and ASU additionally share a Board of Regents, for what it’s price.)
Is there historic precedent for expelling members? Sure and no.
The Pacific Coast Convention pursued a model of contraction within the late Fifties, when a handful of colleges primarily broke off and shaped their very own league — a league that finally turned the Pac-8.
Nonetheless, we aren't conscious of contraction on the main convention stage within the trendy period.
Sure, there have been instances of reorganization. The Mountain West is the results of an enormous, stealth re-org (from the previous Western Athletic Convention).
However what would the Pac-12 morph into? In order for you the media dollars, you want sport stock. There’s no place for a six- or eight-team convention on the present panorama.
So again to the unique questions …
We can't fathom contraction.
We don't foresee enlargement.
And we don't count on voluntary departures.
Whereas a handful of colleges bolting for the Large Ten stays the likeliest of the three situations, it’s nonetheless not very possible.
If non-conference video games are usually not considered in figuring out which groups play within the Pac-12 championship, doesn’t this imply extra scheduling like UCLA’s 2022 slate (Bowling Inexperienced, South Alabama, Alabama State) and a diminishing of the Pac-12’s media stock? — Jon Joseph
Earlier than providing our perspective, it’s important to notice that UCLA was scheduled to play Michigan this season within the Large Home — till the Wolverines canceled the home-and-home sequence a couple of years in the past.
At that time, the Bruins needed to scramble to discover a sport and, missing a viable Energy 5 opponent, opted for dates with Traditionally Black Schools and Universities. (They'll play North Carolina Central in 2023.)
Extra broadly, we don’t count on Pac-12 groups to observe the trail to Creampuff Metropolis due to financial concerns: Followers usually tend to purchase tickets for high-level competitors.
(SEC faculties can schedule FCS opponents and nonetheless promote 80,000 tickets; Pac-12 faculties can't.)
Additionally, most Pac-12 packages have crammed their non-conference schedules for years to come back — and the lineups embody loads of Energy 5 opponents.
Bear in mind, the restructured course of for figuring out which groups take part within the Pac-12 championship is merely a four-year bridge.
Assuming the School Soccer Playoff expands to 12 groups within the 2026 season, the convention will re-examine every little thing in regards to the schedule.
May you see the Pac-12 Community partnering with one of many streaming providers and nonetheless be capable to present higher service throughout all sports activities? — @seataz2000
The Pac-12 Networks have a number of streaming companions, together with Fubo and Sling, and we count on these to stay in place for 2 extra years.
All the pieces modifications when the Pac-12’s subsequent media rights cycle begins in the summertime of 2024.
Our greatest guess is the Pac-12 Networks gained’t exist as a linear (cable TV) platform however, somewhat, will grow to be a streaming-only service owned and operated by the convention.
The content material on a streaming-only Pac-12 Networks would give attention to Olympic sports activities, with soccer and males’s basketball video games obtainable on the likes of Fox and ESPN.
That isn’t the one choice, nonetheless.
The Pac-12 Networks might be consumed by a significant media firm and performance in a lot the identical approach because the Large Ten Community, which is owned by Fox and exhibits a mixture of soccer, basketball and Olympic sports activities.
The Pac-12 had an opportunity to enter into an analogous settlement with ESPN a couple of years in the past however declined the provide.
Apart from blocking the 12-team playoff, does the Alliance going ahead serve any perform that advantages the Pac-12? — @TerryTerry79
First, I might argue (and have) that the alliance is already successful on the most elementary stage: It contained realignment to the SEC and Large 12.
As soon as the presidents of the Pac-12, ACC and Large Ten pledged stability, the game prevented devastating upheaval.
The partnership seemingly performed a job within the School Soccer Playoff debate, as effectively.
Though the ACC, Large Ten and Pac-12 had totally different causes for voting in opposition to enlargement, it seems the alliance created a stage of belief and communication amongst commissioners that, in delicate vogue, helped deliver the method to a halt.
The one factor left for the alliance to perform, in our view, is a scheduling settlement that may create new stock for the conferences to dangle in entrance of their media companions.
However that piece is amorphous. The leagues have already got video games scheduled in opposition to one another — and in opposition to the SEC and Large 12.
Additionally, there isn't any room within the Large Ten’s schedule for a devoted intersectional sequence.
Simply how massive of a catastrophe was Larry Scott? — @JonJaco06054241
I'll state right here precisely what has been provided on this house beforehand:
Larry Scott was the appropriate commissioner for the Pac-12 when he was employed and the improper commissioner for the Pac-12 on the finish of his tenure.
It’s merely not one-size-fits-all — solely good or wholly unhealthy. There’s nuance to the reply, if we’re being truthful to Scott.
He made necessary modifications (principally within the early years) and likewise crucial errors (principally within the later years).
The extra pertinent query, in our opinion, is that this:
Had the college presidents been extra engaged 4 or 5 years in the past and initiated a management change again then, when it was clear a brand new voice was wanted, would Scott’s alternative have improved the convention’s strategic place getting into this momentous stretch for school sports activities?
In our opinion, the reply is unequivocally sure.
Fault for the Pac-12’s present predicament finally lies not with Scott however with the presidents and chancellors.
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