The Hotline mailbag is revealed every Friday. Ship inquiries to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or hit me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline. As a result of quantity — and in some instances, the necessity for analysis — not all questions will likely be answered the week of submission. Thanks to your understanding.
Some questions have been edited for readability and brevity.
Oregon over Georgia and/or Utah over Florida in Week One? — @spadilly
There are 148 days till Sept. 3, the primary Saturday of the soccer season. It options two momentous video games for the Pac-12, each towards the SEC and each on hostile floor.
We count on a break up, with Utah profitable at Florida and Oregon dropping to Georgia.
Let’s take a deeper dive …
— Oregon vs. Georgia (in Atlanta)
If continuity issues in season openers, the Geese face an immense problem.
They're successfully enjoying a street sport towards the defending nationwide champions and doing so with a rookie head coach, new offense, new quarterback and new starters at key positions on either side of scrimmage.
Positive, the Bulldogs misplaced a slew of mega-talents off the nation’s greatest protection, and Geese coach Dan Lanning, who coordinated the unit final season, undoubtedly can have a wise plan of assault towards his former gamers.
However Georgia is changing blue-chip prospects with blue-chip prospects. The ’22 lineup will embody the most effective defensive sort out within the land (Jalen Carter), an elite edge rusher (Nolan Smith) and a future first-round decide at cornerback (Kelee Ringo).
Offensively, the Bulldogs have the most effective tight finish within the sport (Brock Bowers) and a veteran quarterback who carved up Michigan and Alabama within the playoff (Stetson Bennett).
And let’s not overlook, coach Kirby Good and playcaller Todd Monken can have a eager sense for attacking Lanning’s protection on condition that Lanning’s protection was basically Good’s protection.
If we cross-match the lineups, the next outlook outcomes:
Oregon’s revamped offense ought to wrestle towards one other loaded Georgia protection; whereas Oregon’s stout entrance seven will maintain its personal towards a Georgia offense that suffered important attrition on the ability positions and misplaced two all-SEC offensive linemen (Jamaree Salyer and Justin Shaffer).
In different phrases, there’s a greater probability it’s low scoring than excessive scoring and extra doubtless the Bulldogs win than lose.
Our name: Georgia 27, Oregon 17
— Utah at Florida
The reverse of Oregon-Georgia in each respect save the geography.
Florida has a brand new head coach (Billy Napier, employed away from Louisiana), together with new offensive and defensive coordinators and a brand new quarterback. Emory Jones, who began down the stretch in 2021, not too long ago entered the switch portal.
In different phrases, the Gators have skilled immense turnover since their 6-7 season.
And in contrast to Georgia, they don’t have elite recruiting lessons stacked one upon one other — the largest criticism of former coach Dan Mullen was his detached strategy to recruiting.
In the meantime, Utah is the epitome of stability with coach Kyle Whittingham and Co. returning for one more 12 months and a veteran quarterback, Cam Rising, who led the Utes to their first Pac-12 championship.
Utah should set up playmakers on the perimeter however is nicely set at tailback, tight finish and alongside the offensive line.
The protection needs to be stout, particularly with the defensive backs — and we’d argue that excluding quarterback, continuity within the secondary is the most effective predictor of early-season success.
A single miscommunication by inexperienced gamers on the again line can result in the game-turning landing.
The kickoff time hasn’t been set, however Utah assuredly needs the newest doable begin to be able to keep away from a steam bathtub in The Swamp.
However I’m unsure climate is cause sufficient to favor Florida given all of the personnel benefits Utah possesses. And it’s value noting that a number of Utes are from SEC nation, together with presumptive beginning linebacker Mohamoud Diabate, who transferred in three months in the past after beginning 10 video games final season for … Florida.
Our name: Utah 31, Florida 20
What ought to I take into consideration Washington State’s new offensive teaching workers? Eric Morris looks as if the precise form of offensive coordinator that ought to reach Pullman. — @SirCharles_OG
You ought to be cautiously optimistic.
WSU’s broad technique is to combine the most effective of the Mike Leach period with the most effective of the post-Mike Leach period.
On protection, the Cougars will use the system coach Jake Dickert deployed efficiently final 12 months because the coordinator and interim head coach. (The Cougars had been fifth within the convention in factors allowed per sport.)
On offense, the Cougars will use a model of the Air Raid, which was so profitable below Leach and performs to WSU’s recruiting power (receivers).
Morris is aware of the Air Raid nicely, having performed for Leach at Texas Tech and coached below Leach in Pullman for a season.
Morris additionally is aware of his quarterback nicely: Switch Cameron Ward spent the previous two seasons enjoying for Morris at Incarnate Phrase.
Given the meshing of playcaller, playbook and quarterback, the Cougars ought to have a reasonably seamless transition.
In the end, their success offensively will rely on well being and the play of the offensive line, which makes WSU’s scenario not the slightest bit distinctive.
Is David Shaw’s job in jeopardy if he doesn’t propel Stanford to a bowl? — @BrianLa03961570
Completely not.
We might listing a handful of causes which are particular to Shaw. As a substitute, take into consideration this:
Stanford didn’t fireplace basketball coach Jerod Haase after his sixth season with out an NCAA Match bid or Pac-12 common season or match championship.
How might the college justify protecting Haase whereas dismissing the winningest soccer coach in class historical past who has had simply two dropping seasons in a decade?
These optics can be ghastly.
Lots of the causes for protecting Haase, together with the challenges Stanford’s admissions course of poses within the switch portal period, additionally apply to soccer. The Cardinal can lose gamers anytime, however changing them is extraordinarily tough.
We’re not suggesting the rapid future is vivid for the Cardinal, which has misplaced its edge on the road of scrimmage and doesn’t seem to have the personnel wanted for a run on the division title.
However Shaw is basically a tenured professor. He’ll go away when he needs to go away, whether or not that’s in a 12 months or three years or every time.
Any reality to the rumors that USC contacted the Large Ten final week and is at the moment speaking with that convention on the potential of becoming a member of the Large Ten? — @TerryTerry79
Not that we're conscious, however let’s step again for a second and provide a qualifier.
Is it doable that representatives of USC’s pursuits (both sanctioned or unsanctioned) have been in touch with representatives of the Large Ten? After all.
The Large Ten is at the moment negotiating its subsequent media rights deal. It could solely make sense for back-channel conversations to happen and for the folks having these conversations to babble about it.
That doesn’t imply USC’s administration — specifically: president Carol Folt, athletic director Mike Bohn and board chair Rick Caruso — is actively seeking to go away the Pac-12.
We consider USC’s sturdy choice is to stay within the convention. If something, the change in commissioners helped solidify the scenario.
Did I miss one thing? Isn’t it time for (the Hotline to publish) Pac-12 basketball report playing cards? And the outcomes aren’t good. Arizona will get an A+ for much exceeding expectations, however there are plenty of Cs and Ds. — @boscpenn83
You haven’t missed something; the Hotline merely didn’t publish a report card for Pac-12 basketball groups.
Why? Your evaluation — “plenty of Cs and Ds” — is the first cause.
When contemplating all of the elements that might make up a report card (common season and postseason, accidents, non-conference outcomes, expectations vs. report), it was a fair-to-middlin’ season for everybody besides Arizona (good) and Oregon State (dangerous).
Nonetheless, we’re planning to publish a Scorching Seat evaluation subsequent week. Waiting for the 2022-23 season, at the least 5 coaches will likely be below important strain to win.
Please clarify Cal’s determination to not fireplace Mark Fox. — @thomas_ob
There are two ranges to the choice, in our opinion:
From a sensible standpoint, Fox spent his first season cleansing up the enormous mess inherited from Wyking Jones and his second and third seasons coping with COVID and the accompanying restrictions, which had been extra stringent in Berkeley than wherever else.
One might credibly argue that Fox deserves at the least one regular teaching cycle (together with offseason exercises) earlier than judgment is rendered.
Past that, there’s the private piece: Athletic director Jim Knowlton employed Fox and absolutely needs to provide his head coach each alternative to succeed. In that regard, Knowlton is hardly alone. Excessive circumstances are required for an athletic director to fireside his/her head coach after just some seasons.
That mentioned, it’s tough to see a route to success for the Bears. Fox merely isn’t recruiting on the degree essential to compete for an NCAA Match berth.
However there once more, context is required. Fox is coping with greater than COVID: The switch portal is a problem — each Bay Space colleges are battling it — and Cal’s sources are substandard, particularly with the dearth of a devoted basketball apply facility.
I’d argue that Cal is the hardest teaching job within the Pac-12 as at the moment structured, with the doable exception of Oregon State.
Switch portal winners and losers? Rank the groups of the Pac-12. — @AlexAvelarPW
Up to now, USC is the clear No. 1 inside the convention and arguably within the nation.
However — and this could be tough to consider — it’s too early for a complete evaluation of the switch lessons.
We count on extra motion on the shut of spring apply, after returning gamers have assessed their standing on the depth chart and first-year coaches have seen the expertise in-person.
The deadline for gamers to switch is Might 1 to be able to be eligible within the fall.
The Hotline will publish a full breakdown after that time.
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