What we realized on the ultimate weekend of the common season …
1. Oregon missed its probability
As a basic NCAA Match bubble-sitter — a workforce with a number of premium wins and a slew of abysmal losses — the Geese couldn't afford to lose to both Washington or Washington State.
They usually didn’t lose to both of them. They misplaced to each of them.
The 11-point loss in Seattle and the 20-point wipeout in Pullman pushed the Geese to the brink of elimination from the at-large pool.
We not often say by no means in terms of choices on NCAA bids, however the forecast for Choice Sunday in Eugene is bleak with an opportunity of terrible.
Oregon dropped to No. 74 within the NET rankings following the misplaced weekend in Washington — one spot forward of Colorado and one under a related benchmark:
The worst NET rating to make the NCAA at-large area is No. 73 (St. John’s in 2019).
In that regard, No. 58 Washington State is healthier positioned than Oregon. However the Cougars are with no single Quadrant I victory, which stands as an enormous blemish on their resume.
2. It’s a three-bid league, except …
Probably, the Pac-12 will ship three groups to the NCAAs (Arizona, UCLA and USC), except there’s an upset winner within the convention match.
Will somebody morph into the 2022 model of Oregon State?
Each Arizona State and Colorado have received seven of their previous eight video games, and the Geese, as poorly as they've performed just lately, personal two victories over UCLA and pushed Arizona to the brink.
We don’t give any of them a lot probability to gather the trophy.
Why? They’re on the identical facet of the bracket, so just one can attain the championship, and it’s Arizona’s facet of the bracket.
The trail would require a victory over the top-seeded Wildcats within the quarterfinals (for ASU) or semifinals (for Oregon or Colorado) after which a win over both USC or UCLA within the finals, assuming one of many L.A. colleges advances.
It’s unlikely, certain. But it surely’s extra probably than Oregon, Colorado or WSU claiming an at-large berth.
3. Embarrassment looms
If we assume one of many favorites claims the trophy in Las Vegas and there aren't any surprises with the at-large bids, the Pac-12 will ship three groups to the NCAAs for the third time in 4 years.
Three bids could be unhealthy, however this could be even worse: If each the Mountain West and the West Coast Convention get 4.
It’s totally doable.
From the MW: Boise State and Colorado State are locks, whereas San Diego State and Wyoming are in strong form.
From the WCC: Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are locks, with USF and Brigham Younger on the bubble.
Sending fewer groups to March Insanity than each neighboring leagues (with vastly smaller budgets) could be near the last word indignity for the Pac-12.
Like going 0-5 in opposition to BYU on the soccer area.
4. The seeds are set for Las Vegas
The opening spherical and quarterfinal matchups at T-Cell Area are as follows:
No. 8 ASU vs. No. 9 Stanford; winner performs No. 1 Arizona
No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 12 Oregon State; winner performs No. 4 Colorado
No. 7 WSU vs. No. 10 Cal; winner performs No. 2 UCLA
No. 6 Washington vs. No. 11 Utah; winner performs No. 3 USC
Three ideas:
— Nothing has gone proper for Oregon State this season, however the Beavers absolutely love their matchup in opposition to Oregon within the opening spherical. Maybe the Geese will regroup previous to Wednesday. They may additionally roll over, particularly if level guard Will Richardson is unable to play due to harm.
— On the lookout for an upset within the quarterfinals that isn’t No. 5 Oregon over No. 4 Colorado (as a result of that wouldn’t be a lot of an upset). Contemplate choosing the Washington-Utah winner over USC. The Trojans usually play to the extent of their competitors, suggesting a good matchup.
— The potential quarterfinal collision of Arizona and ASU is intriguing. The Solar Devils are enjoying in addition to anybody and gave the Wildcats bother within the first assembly. This a lot is bound: ASU received’t lack for perception.
5. The Participant of the Yr race is down to 2
The contenders have been swept away. Arizona wing Bennedict Mathurin and Washington guard Terrell Brown Jr. are the 2 left standing because the coaches submit their votes this weekend.
Mathurin is the very best participant on the very best workforce and the convention’s prime NBA Draft prospect.
Brown has finished extra to raise his workforce than anybody and leads the Pac-12 in scoring and steals.
Each are worthy picks. We’re glad there's some intrigue.
The postseason awards and all-conference groups shall be introduced early this week.
6. Who’s scorching; who’s not
Information over the previous 4 weeks of league play (since Feb. 7):
Arizona: 8-1
Colorado: 6-1
ASU: 7-2
UCLA: 7-2
USC: 5-2
Washington: 4-5
Cal: 3-4
WSU: 4-6
Oregon: 3-6
Utah: 2-4
Stanford: 1-7
OSU: 0-10
7. Mike Hopkins is coming again
From the Hotline’s nook of the galaxy, the state of affairs appeared settled weeks in the past: Washington’s enchancment was substantial sufficient to safe one other season for coach Mike Hopkins.
That conclusion wasn’t essentially shared by the viewing public in Seattle, the place frustration over UW’s regression runs deep.
Now, there might be little question:
After dispatching Oregon and OSU to complete 16-14 general and, extra importantly, 11-9 in convention play, Hopkins appears assured of a sixth season on Montlake.
8. Jerod Haase is in serious trouble
Stanford’s stretch-run collapse is rooted in offensive offense:
The Cardinal has scored greater than 60 factors in simply 4 of its previous 10 video games and at the moment ranks No. 155 nationally in adjusted offensive effectivity (per the Pomeroy rankings).
Except it wins the Pac-12 match — and that will be a shocker — Stanford will miss the NCAAs for the sixth consecutive season beneath Haase.
Six weeks in the past, the Pac-12 appeared destined for a slew of teaching modifications. Now, we'd solely see one.
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