Freeway 99 site visitors travels previous a viaduct bridge constructed for the California Excessive-Velocity Rail that spans the San Joaquin River in Madera, on April 1, 2021. (Doug Duran/Bay Space Information Group)
Fourteen years in the past, largely resulting from enthusiastic help from then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, California voters authorized a $9.95 billion bond concern for a statewide bullet practice system.
The preliminary plan mentioned the mission would price $33 billion, restricted service would start by 2025, and the system can be full by 2030, whisking passengers between San Francisco and Los Angeles in 2½ hours.
By no means thoughts.
The Excessive-Velocity Rail Authority’s newest “marketing strategy,” launched this month, initiatives that a full system may price greater than $100 billion, not counting future inflation. Furthermore, the company has not but pinned down the $25 billion that it wants simply to construct the 171-mile starter line between Merced and Bakersfield.
Development crews have solely begun to construct roadbed for the San Joaquin Valley section and no observe has been laid. Optimistically, it will likely be virtually a decade earlier than passengers can trip on it.
The rail authority pumps out revisions to its marketing strategy annually, virtually all the time elevating projected prices however by no means laying out realistically how they are going to be coated.
Up to now, about half of the $9 billion within the bond concern reserved for the bullet practice has been spent, together with just a few billion extra from a federal grant. The opposite $995 million in bonds had been designated for native rail service to feed into the system.
The rail authority and Gov. Gavin Newsom need the Legislature to commit the remaining $4.2 billion in bond cash to maintain building going within the San Joaquin Valley and make plans for later enlargement. Nonetheless, legislative leaders have balked, saying spending it on the bullet practice can be a waste and demanding that the cash be diverted into higher commuter rail service in Southern California.
It’s been one thing of a stalemate however the deadlock may very well be damaged this yr as a result of Newsom’s 2022-23 funds proposes to spend $3.25 billion on native transit techniques, thereby doubtlessly placating legislators who've held up the bond funds.
The brand new marketing strategy additionally expresses hope that the latest passage of a $1.2 trillion federal infrastructure enchancment program may yield some cash.
“Whereas there was numerous deal with the diferences between our strategy to advancing high-speed rail in California and that proposed by some within the Legislature, there ought to be no query that the supply of recent federal and state funding presents a chance to shut that divide and agree on investments that permit statewide high-speed rail to maneuver ahead in tandem with different high-priority regional initiatives.” Brian Kelly, the company’s high govt, says in a foreword to the plan.
Nonetheless, the plan nonetheless doesn’t inform us how the starter line, which now could be envisioned to be double-tracked and electrified, will probably be totally financed, a lot much less determine a supply for the opposite $75-plus billion to finish the mission.
The unstated hope is that after passengers are driving between Merced and Bakersfield, any individual or one thing will probably be so impressed that cash will move into connecting Bakersfield to Los Angeles and Merced to San Jose. Initially, the latter can be extending an current conventional rail hyperlink.
What about that promise of touring between San Francisco on one practice in 2½ hours? It’s in all probability unattainable given the mission’s revisions, comparable to counting on a separate system to hold passengers between San Francisco and San Jose and route adjustments in Southern California.
In actual fact, it’s no less than a 50-50 guess that the road between Merced and Bakersfield would be the solely actually high-speed section — and that’s provided that sufficient cash might be discovered to construct it.
Dan Walters is a CalMatters columnist.