USC has lengthy been thought of a lock for the NCAA Match, each on the Hotline and elsewhere. And we stay assured the Trojans will make the at-large discipline.
However within the curiosity of offering readers with the complete vary of outcomes, to be able to keep away from any last-minute surprises, we really feel compelled to say the slippery slope up head for coach Andy Enfield and his program.
Whereas USC’s NET rating (No. 29) is strong, the muse has a crack or two.
— The Trojans personal only one Quadrant I win (over Washington State).
— They haven’t overwhelmed a crew assured to make the NCAAs through the at-large route.
— Their finest non-conference win is over San Diego State (No. 55 within the NET).
— Their non-conference schedule is No. 286 within the influential Pomeroy rankings.
— Of their 20 wins, 15 are of the Quadrant III or IV (i.e., lowest) selection.
All of which is to say the Trojans possess appreciable draw back danger — excess of Arizona or UCLA, which have stronger schedules and extra Quad I wins.
One or two dangerous losses might immediate an extended slide down the NET for the Trojans, maybe all the way in which to the bubble.
To the Hotline’s newest NCAA projections …
— For these unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which performs an essential function within the NCAA Match choice course of: The results of every recreation performed falls inside one in all 4 quadrants, primarily based on the NET rating of the opponent and site of the sport.
(The categorization modifications over time as groups transfer up and down the NET.)
Quadrant 1: Residence vs. Nos. 1-30, Impartial vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Residence 31-75, Impartial 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Residence 76-160, Impartial 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Residence 161-353, Impartial 201-353, Away 241-353
Listed so as of NET rating (by way of Tuesday) …
Arizona
NET Rating: No. 3
Report vs. Quad I and II: 7-2
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 13-0
NCAA projection: No. 2 seed
Remark: You understand what would look good on Arizona’s resume? A victory over the Large Ten’s regular-season champion. And Illinois, presently jammed in a three-team tie atop the league, is doing its finest to make that potential for the Wildcats.
UCLA
NET Rating: No. 14
Report vs. Quad I and II: 7-3
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 10-1
NCAA projection: No. 4 seed
Remark: Unsure what the betting line will probably be Saturday night within the Galen Heart, however we’ll take the Bruins and provides the factors.
USC
NET Rating: No. 30
Report vs. Quad I and II: 5-3
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 15-1
NCAA projection: No. 10 seed
Remark: Additionally working in opposition to the Trojans: They solely performed one Energy Six opponent (Georgia Tech) outdoors the Pac-12.
Washington State
NET Rating: No. 37
Report vs. Quad I and II: 2-4
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 12-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Of be aware: The No. 32 Cougars are two spots above USC within the Pomeroy effectivity rankings, partly as a result of the Trojans personal an excellent softer non-conference schedule than WSU.
Oregon
NET Rating: No. 52
Report vs. Quad I and II: 5-5
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 9-2
NCAA projection: No. 11 seed
Remark: Three guests in 5 days (Stanford, Cal and WSU), and the Geese can't afford to lose to any of them.
Stanford
NET Rating: No. 90
Report vs. Quad I and II: 6-9
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 8-0
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: With 5 of the final seven on the street, Stanford should dig deep to hold any momentum into the Pac-12 event, the place its current historical past is pretty horrid.
Colorado
NET Rating: No. 9-3
Report vs. Quad I and II: 2-8
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 12-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: What was anticipated to be a transition 12 months is, after all of the early success, transitioning right into a transition 12 months.,
Utah
NET Rating: No. 127
Report vs. Quad I and II: 1-11
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 8-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Each Gach is averaging 9.7 factors per recreation in comparison with the ten.7 ppg when he performed for the Utes in 2020.
Washington
NET Rating: No. 131
Report vs. Quad I and II: 2-5
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 10-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Terrell Brown for Pac-12 Participant of the Yr? Reminds us a little bit of the Markelle Fultz case just a few years again, though these Huskies are higher than the ’17 model.
Arizona State
NET Rating: No. 137
Report vs. Quad I and II: 3-11
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 4-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: The Solar Devils have upcoming visits from Oregon State and Cal, so the ultimate month shouldn’t get utterly sideways on Bobby Hurley.
Cal
NET Rating: No. 146
Report vs. Quad I and II: 2-13
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 7-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: A troublesome slog by way of the stretch run will probably be rather more troublesome with out large man Andre Kelly, who’s out for the remainder of the season (ankle).
Oregon State
NET Rating: No. 243
Report vs. Quad I and II: 0-11
Report vs. Quad III and IV: 3-6
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Up to now, not one of the bubble groups have fallen into the OSU sinkhole.
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