Frequent readers of this area might need observed we make an enormous deal out of the Pac-12’s annual efficiency in non-conference video games, whether or not it’s good, unhealthy or ghastly.
Our motive: It is an enormous deal.
There’s a direct correlation between non-conference outcomes and Choice Sunday success.
However don’t belief us on that. Belief the convention.
The Pac-12’s weekly basketball launch consists of its general profitable proportion in non-conference video games for each season again to 1985, when the NCAA subject expanded to 64 groups, together with the variety of event bids the Pac-12 obtained that yr.
Within the decade since enlargement to 12 colleges, the connection between non-conference efficiency and NCAA berths is evident:
When the profitable proportion is under 70 %, the bid complete is under 4.
Right here you go (seasons with sub-70 profitable proportion in italics):
2012: 61.1 %/two bids
2013: 74.8 %/5 bids
2014: 78.3 %/six bids
2015: 72.5 %/4 bids
2016: 78 %/seven bids
2017: 72.2 %/4 bids
2018: 69.8 %/three bids
2019: 61.3 %/three bids
2020: 73.9 %/NCAAs canceled
2021: 74 %/5 bids
The explanation for the connection is evident: Within the period of the RPI and now the NET rankings, non-conference success establishes the analytic guardrails for every staff. These guardrails stay in place by the league season, when all outcomes are of the eat-your-own selection.
Basically, November and December are for constructing the residence that can home your groups till Choice Sunday. Thrive early, and your construction is excessive class. Wrestle early, and it’s low lease.
The place do issues stand for the Pac-12 this winter? Not good. Not good in any respect.
The Pac-12’s non-conference win charge is 66.7 %, suggesting fewer than 4 bids are forthcoming.
To the Hotline’s newest NCAA projections …
— For these unfamiliar with the NET rankings system, which performs an vital function within the NCAA Match choice course of: The results of every recreation performed falls inside considered one of 4 quadrants, based mostly on the NET rating of the opponent and site of the sport.
(The categorization modifications over time as groups transfer up and down the NET.)
Quadrant 1: Dwelling vs. Nos. 1-30, Impartial vs. Nos. 1-50, Away vs. Nos. 1-75
Quadrant 2: Dwelling 31-75, Impartial 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Dwelling 76-160, Impartial 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Dwelling 161-353, Impartial 201-353, Away 241-353
Listed so as of NET rating (by Tuesday) …
Arizona
NET Rating: No. 2
File vs. Quad I and II: 10-2
File vs. Quad III and IV: 12-0
NCAA projection: No. 1 seed
Remark: Based mostly on the present NET rankings, Arizona has only one Quadrant I recreation remaining (at USC), along with these it'd expertise within the convention event. Any stretch-run strengthening of its resume is almost certainly to come back from the efficiency of previous conquests (Illinois, Michigan and Wyoming).
UCLA
NET Rating: No. 14
File vs. Quad I and II: 7-5
File vs. Quad III and IV: 10-0
NCAA projection: No. 5 seed
Remark: Can’t imagine I’m typing this, however right here goes: UCLA’s outcomes this weekend towards the Washington colleges might show consequential in figuring out Pac-12 event seeds in case of a tie for fourth place.
USC
NET Rating: No. 25
File vs. Quad I and II: 7-3
File vs. Quad III and IV: 14-1
NCAA projection: No. 7 seed
Remark: No staff has a harder end than USC, which performs Oregon (highway), Arizona (house) and UCLA (highway) in succession over the ultimate eight days.
Washington State
NET Rating: No. 47
File vs. Quad I and II: 3-6
File vs. Quad III and IV: 11-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: The Cougars aren’t the one top-50 staff missing a Quadrant I victory, however they aren’t making the at-large subject with out one. There are two possibilities this weekend in L.A., and that’s it (till Las Vegas).
Oregon
NET Rating: No. 58
File vs. Quad I and II: 6-5
File vs. Quad III and IV: 10-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Bracket Matrix, which aggregates the NCAA projections from 119 mock brackets, lists Oregon as a No. 12 seed (on common). The Geese seem on half (59) of the brackets within the mannequin.
Colorado
NET Rating: No. 89
File vs. Quad I and II: 3-8
File vs. Quad III and IV: 13-1
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: We’ll break from the analytics to remind Hotline readers that Jabari Walker is rattling good.
Stanford
NET Rating: No. 93
File vs. Quad I and II: 5-10
File vs. Quad III and IV: 10-0
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Except the Cardinal is the final staff standing in Las Vegas, it would miss the NCAAs for the thirteenth time previously 14 years — this, after a run of constructing the NCAAs in 12 of 13 years.
Washington
NET Rating: No. 128
File vs. Quad I and II: 2-6
File vs. Quad III and IV: 11-4
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: The Huskies are nonetheless searching for their first Quadrant I win of the season. So are 29 groups positioned above them within the NET.
Utah
NET Rating: No. 130
File vs. Quad I and II: 1-13
File vs. Quad III and IV: 8-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: The Utes aren’t scheduled to face both of the Pac-12’s bubble groups (Oregon and WSU) down the stretch however have one big likelihood to create resume havoc: when Arizona visits subsequent week.
Arizona State
NET Rating: No. 134
File vs. Quad I and II: 4-12
File vs. Quad III and IV: 4-3
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: With seven video games packed into the ultimate 17 days, ASU will both have substantial momentum when it departs for Las Vegas or not sufficient gasoline within the tank to even attain Kingman.
Cal
NET Rating: No. 136
File vs. Quad I and II: 3-13
File vs. Quad III and IV: 8-2
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Simply as Stanford needs to face USC within the Pac-12 event, Cal would like to play Stanford within the opening spherical after eliminating the Cardinal in back-to-back seasons. And based mostly on the present standings, it simply would possibly occur.
Oregon State
NET Rating: No. 255
File vs. Quad I and II: 0-11
File vs. Quad III and IV: 3-9
NCAA projection: no bid
Remark: Undecided which is worse for the Beavers — being 197 spots under Oregon within the NET … or being 53 under Portland.
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