INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA – JANUARY 09: Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams makes an attempt to sack Jimmy Garoppolo #10 of the San Francisco 49ers within the second quarter of the sport at SoFi Stadium on January 09, 2022 in Inglewood, California. (Picture by Harry How/Getty Pictures)
The 49ers have to be thrilled heading into this NFC Championship Recreation.
No slight to the Los Angeles Rams, but when apply makes excellent, then the Niners ought to have their greatest recreation of the season on Sunday with a visit to the Tremendous Bowl on the road.
Sure, the Niners have received six straight video games in opposition to the Rams. Sure, the quick journey and home-field benefit San Francisco can have on the “Rams Home” might be advantageous.
However Sunday would be the third must-win recreation the 49ers have performed in opposition to the Rams this season. The second and the opponent might be acquainted, and that offers the Niners fewer issues to fret about earlier than the largest recreation of the yr.
Simply deal with it like Week 10, or Week 18, and the Niners ought to have an excellent shot at successful.
That stated, the Rams are a harmful crew. Their presence on this recreation is not any fluke and if the 49ers don’t come to South Los Angeles right, they received’t be returning in a couple of weeks for the Huge Recreation.
Clearly, with the familiarity these two groups have, there’s not a lot that might be a shock come Sunday, however in watching again these two earlier matchups and the previous few video games for every crew — all whereas diving into the numbers — right here’s what stands out to me earlier than Spherical No. 3:
• The Rams are the NFL’s prolific crew on the subject of disguising coverages and it’s a blast to observe throughout the recreation. In accordance with Professional Soccer Focus, the Rams solely run what they present on the line of scrimmage 55 p.c of the time. We noticed Kyler Murray battle with it within the Rams-Cardinals playoff recreation, and even Tom Brady was flummoxed by the sleight of hand — till the Rams went right into a forestall protection up 27-3 and Brady was capable of higher diagnose on the line of scrimmage.
You could be considering “Dieter, that doesn’t sound nice for Jimmy Garoppolo” and let me inform you, on spec, I might are likely to agree. In spite of everything, Garoppolo doesn't learn the sphere nicely.
However the Niners have the antidote to the Rams’ defensive methods: No crew runs extra movement within the NFL on offense than San Francisco.
Credit score to the good Eric Keen of PFF for pointing this out: On greater than 70 p.c of the Niners’ snaps — a full degree or two above some other crew within the league — Kyle Shanahan strikes across the items on the chessboard. He forces the protection to point out their hand, lest they be caught woefully out of place.
Each of those ideas are easy, however the offense — if it merely strikes gamers round pre-snap — has a marked benefit. The 49ers may not have a quarterback who can learn the sphere like Brady earlier than the snap, however they assure that his pre-snap homework is much less difficult. (Tampa Bay used movement on roughly half of their snaps this season and had been hardly utilizing it a lot final weekend vs. the Rams.)
By no means let somebody inform you this isn’t an offensive league.
• The 49ers’ offense has one other benefit over the Rams’ protection: Los Angeles is gentle.
The 49ers led the NFC on early-down rushes this season. The Rams have had the fewest gamers within the field on early downs for the final two seasons, working a ton of nickel (5 defensive backs) and dime (six defensive again) appears to be like, all whereas going lighter at linebacker as to place move rushers on the sphere. They’ll usually put six males within the field, leaving one linebacker on the sphere.
It helps cease fashionable offenses — Kansas Metropolis, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay and the Cardinals — however there’s nothing new-school about Shanahan’s assault.
Add within the movement the Niners make use of, and it’s a easy situation for the Rams: They don’t have sufficient males.
Now, Aaron Donald and his underrated line of defense cohort Greg Gaines could make up for the Rams’ lack of weight and personnel up entrance — each will command double-teams on Sunday — however the situation for Los Angeles and the benefit for San Francisco continues to be the identical: the numbers recreation favors the Niners.
• I had critical issues about Okay’Waun Williams earlier than Saturday’s recreation with the Packers and I've much more now with Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham and Van Jefferson looming within the Rams’ 11 personnel (one again, one tight finish, three large receivers) group.
After watching again the previous few 49ers and Rams video games, I went to Twitter to counsel that the Niners bench Williams for Dontae Johnson. A daring stance, to make sure.
Former 49ers security and my KNBR cohort Donte Whitner wasn’t having any of that suggestion. He identified how Johnson isn’t constructed for that inside life with a couple of movies from the Week 18 matchup.
However is Williams nonetheless about it?
Kwaun Williams……. pic.twitter.com/hYQmW4UjL5
— Dieter Kurtenbach (@dieter) January 23, 2022
The Niners’ nickelback/slot cornerback (decide your toxic time period: dangerous band or oxymoron) was as soon as one of many NFL’s greatest and he stays a drive within the run recreation.
However since returning to the lineup for the Wild Card recreation in opposition to Dallas, he’s been burned in man-to-man coverages. He hasn’t seemed excellent in zone protection, both.
Whitner was apt to level out in our back-and-forth that it’s unimaginable to know what Williams’ job is on each play. I get that.
All I noticed was a typical denominator of Williams attempting — and failing — to stay with the slot receiver for the Niners’ opponents.
And this week, these opponents are excellent. Kupp is arguably the most effective wideout within the NFL at the moment, and Beckham is without doubt one of the most proficient gamers in skilled sports activities. Reality be instructed, I don’t know the way you defend these guys.
However don’t sleep on Jefferson, the sophomore out of Florida, both. He has lengthy strides and critical deep pace with good arms as well, scoring three touchdowns over 50 yards this season.
The Niners have their arms full with Kupp and OBJ, however they'll’t sleep on the child.
• Anticipate one other huge recreation from Brandon Aiyuk on Sunday, because the Rams have a single-high security on the overwhelming majority of their performs.
The perfect assault for such appears to be like? Crossing routes, deep ones — and Aiyuk is the Niners’ greatest receiver at working these routes (although Deebo Samuel provides him a run).
Aiyuk went for 107 yards on six catches in Week 18, his greatest recreation of the season. Given how the Rams didn’t present a lot adjustment between these two groups’ Week 10 and Week 18 video games, I’d anticipate the Niners to have Aiyuk working over the center early and infrequently once more Sunday.
• Wish to know one other benefit for the Niners, simply to prime issues off?
They don’t do the factor on protection that the Rams need them to do.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is in his first season in Los Angeles after being traded from the Detroit Lions, and he realized a bit of one thing in his Lions days, like methods to deal with strain up in his face.
This season, in opposition to the blitz, Stafford had an Anticipated Factors Added (a catch-all NFL superior stat) of 89.1. That’s a loopy quantity. It’s the very best score ever, per NFL Subsequent Gen Stats.
We noticed within the Rams’ first two video games of the postseason the Cardinals and Bucs blitz Stafford repeatedly and once more. They couldn’t assist themselves — they had been blitz-happy within the common season in order that they caught with what they knew. And right here the Rams are — one win from the Tremendous bowl.
However the 49ers don’t blitz. That they had the fourth-lowest blitz price within the league over the season, per Professional Soccer Focus. And they're actually not blitzing a lot over the previous few weeks, because the crew’s four-man line of defense has discovered its prime kind.
Since Week 10, the Niners have blitzed lower than 20 p.c of the time however have a top-five strain and sack price per PFF. They’re the one crew within the NFL that may say all three of these issues over that time period.
It’s the identical method that the Niners used to succeed in the Tremendous Bowl within the 2019 season. Get dwelling with 4 and let the seven gamers behind that line blanket the sphere in a zone protection.
Stafford — who has performed the Niners twice throughout that stretch — has accomplished solely 64 p.c of his passes and thrown 4 interceptions to go along with 4 touchdowns in these two video games.
An added purpose to not blitz Sunday: When the Niners have blitzed this postseason, it has left Williams on a one-on-one island. Dak Prescott took benefit with a game-changing landing move to Amari Cooper. Aaron Rodgers missed a potential game-winning first down within the fourth quarter when he didn’t throw to Alan Lazard, who had crushed Williams within the slot and stood large open in the midst of the sphere.