Does a low approval rating make Utah Sen. Mike Lee vulnerable in the 2022 election?

Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, speaks throughout Utah Eagle Discussion board’s annual conference at Salt Lake Group School in Sandy on Jan. 8, 2022. A brand new Deseret Information/Hinckley Institute of Politics ballot reveals 42% of Utah voters approve of the job Lee is doing, whereas 38% disapprove. One other 21% don’t know.

Mengshin Lin, Deseret Information

Republican Sen. Mike Lee isn’t in style with Utahns heading into the 2022 election as decided challengers, together with some in his personal social gathering, elevate masses of cash in an effort to place him out of a job.

However the two-term incumbent stays well-liked amongst Utah Republicans who largely decide U.S. Senate races within the conservative state, although a viable unbiased is poised to vary the dynamic this 12 months.

A brand new Deseret Information/Hinckley Institute of Politics ballot reveals 42% of Utah voters approve of the job Lee is doing, whereas 38% disapprove. One other 21% don’t know.

Amongst Republicans within the ballot, although, his approval score jumps to 57%, however down just a little from previous surveys. It shoots to 74% amongst survey respondents who recognized themselves as “very conservative” and 57% amongst “considerably conservative” voters. Lee will get solely 19% approval amongst Utahns who say they don’t belong to a political social gathering.

Dan Jones & Associates performed the ballot of 815 registered Utah voters Jan. 20-28. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.43 share factors.

“Sen. Lee has loved a cushty place within the final two election cycles,” mentioned Jason Perry, director of the College of Utah’s Hinckley Institute of Politics.

“His continued excessive approval score amongst conservative voters and Republican delegates have made him a transparent entrance runner at conference and the eventual main, as extra reasonable challengers cancel one another out combating for the center.”

Lee’s approval score amongst all Utah voters has dipped three factors since an October 2021 Deseret Information/Hinckley Institute ballot, whereas his disapproval has climbed 4 factors. His approval has hovered round 45% the previous couple of years.

Unbiased candidate Evan McMullin raised extra money within the final three months of 2021 than some other Lee challenger, outpacing the senator as effectively in his newest quarterly Federal Election Fee marketing campaign finance report. McMullin hauled in simply over $1 million since coming into the race final October, and has about $702,000 readily available to begin the 12 months. He has not acquired any PAC cash.

“These numbers are a direct results of the rising coalition of Democrats, Republicans and independents who assist Evan’s marketing campaign and know Lee should be defeated,” mentioned McMullin spokeswoman Kelsey Koenen Witt. “We’re humbled and grateful to Utahns who're stepping up, working collectively and placing variations apart with a purpose to defeat Mike Lee.”

Nonetheless, Lee, who raised greater than $650,000 within the final quarter, has greater than $2.1 million in his marketing campaign warfare chest.

In a fundraising e mail the Lee marketing campaign despatched final week, the senator referred to McMullin, writing “my opponent raised $1 MILLION final quarter” and “I’m being attacked by my challengers.” In one other e mail Tuesday, Lee says he simply had a serious January fundraising deadline and “we fell simply wanting hitting our aim.”

“I’m the one conservative on this race who can cease the Radical Left,” Lee wrote.

Lee has a number of challengers inside his personal social gathering together with former Utah legislator Becky Edwards, enterprise and neighborhood chief Ally Isom, and Richfield resident Ty Jensen. Democratic candidates embrace Kael Weston, who misplaced to Rep. Chris Stewart in 2020 and who jumped into the Senate race final week, and Austin Searle and Allen Glines.

Edwards raised $168,000 within the final quarter, in accordance with her FEC report. She has raised over $1 million since launching her marketing campaign final Might and has $507,000 within the financial institution as of her final submitting.

Nearly 90% of her 2,100 particular person contributions come from inside the state of Utah, Edwards mentioned.

“Each greenback is a name for extra proactive, productive, and inclusive management, and I’m able to deliver that management to Washington,” she mentioned.

Isom introduced in $101,000 throughout that point. She has taken in $516,000 since stepping into the race final July and has $240,000 readily available, her FEC report reveals.

Isom’s message of collaborative, conservative management has resonated with Utahns within the 73 communities she has visited as evidenced by “100% of our contributions coming from people, zero dollars from PACs, and 85% from of us in state,” mentioned Miranda Barnard, marketing campaign spokesperson.

“We’re thrilled with our momentum and sit up for being on the first poll,” Barnard mentioned.

The GOP main winner in U.S. Senate races in Utah traditionally has gone on to win the final election. However this 12 months, McMullin will likely be ready on the poll for the Republican nominee. Utah has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1970. The state has by no means elected a lady to the Senate.

McMullin, who ran an anti-Donald Trump marketing campaign for president as an unbiased in 2016, isn’t well-known amongst Utah voters. A Deseret Information/Hinckley Institute ballot in December discovered practically two-thirds of Utahns have neither a good nor an unfavorable impression of him.

Lee has a large lead over the Republicans seeking to take him out within the main election this spring. Isom and Edwards are gathering voter signatures to safe a spot on the first poll beneath Utah’s twin nomination system. In addition they plan to hunt the nomination on the state GOP conference the place Lee has the within monitor as delegates are typically extra conservative than Utah voters general.

Each Edwards and Isom, who take into account themselves “mainstream” Republicans, imagine Lee is weak. They are saying Utah is prepared for brand new illustration within the Senate and that Lee just isn't assembly the wants of on a regular basis Utahns.

“Between his constantly low approval rankings and the small variety of in-state donations he’s acquired, it’s clear Utahns are prepared for a change,” mentioned Edwards marketing campaign spokeswoman Chelsea Robarge Fife.