Nancy Pelosi’s plan to hunt reelection extends one among San Francisco’s longest-running, most-fevered political guessing video games: Who will succeed the Democrat when she lastly does step apart?
The announcement Tuesday by the 81-year-old congresswoman was totally predictable. Her determination augurs an election that shall be totally professional forma.
Pelosi will appeal to, as she at all times does, a minimum of one candidate operating to her left, who will insist — in true San Francisco trend — that she is just not an actual Democrat. There may even be a Republican opponent or two, who might increase many hundreds of thousands of dollars from Pelosi haters across the nation appearing extra out of spite than good sense.
After which, in nearly 9 months she shall be handily reelected to Congress for an 18th time.
Nob Hill might crumble. Alcatraz might tumble. However Pelosi, who hasn’t bothered operating something remotely resembling a marketing campaign in a long time, won't be turned out by her constituents as long as she attracts a breath and stands for election.
There was hypothesis she may step apart and never run once more. However Pelosi is aware of higher than anybody the facility and affect — to not point out prodigious fundraising capability — that will immediately diminish the second she indicated the remainder of the 12 months can be spent marking time to her departure.
“I see myself as a transitional determine,” Pelosi stated in 2018 throughout an interview at a downtown Miami bistro. “I've issues to do. Books to put in writing; locations to go; grandchildren, before everything, to like.”
However, she rapidly added, she wasn’t imposing a restrict on her tenure. “Do you suppose I might make myself a lame duck proper right here over this double espresso?” Pelosi stated with a raised eyebrow and fun.
She gained’t, in fact, stay without end, and so for a few years there was hypothesis — and a few quiet jockeying — over who will finally take Pelosi’s place.
To say her seat in Congress is coveted is like suggesting there’s a wee little bit of curiosity within the metropolis in a sure sporting occasion this weekend. (For these non-football followers, the San Francisco 49ers shall be enjoying the Rams within the NFC championship sport for a ticket to the Tremendous Bowl.)
In practically 60 years, simply three individuals have served within the seat Pelosi now holds. Two of them — Phil Burton and Pelosi — account for all however a handful of these years. Burton’s widow, Sala, served about 4 years earlier than, as she lay dying, she anointed Pelosi as her chosen substitute.
So succeeding Pelosi could possibly be the closest factor to a lifetime appointment any San Francisco politician will ever take pleasure in. And given all of the pent-up ambition, there is no such thing as a scarcity of potential candidates.
One of many strongest contenders is state Sen. Scott Wiener, 51, who has constructed a formidable report in Sacramento in a district that roughly approximates the present congressional boundaries.
One other prospect is Christine Pelosi, 55, probably the most politically seen of the speaker’s 5 kids and a longtime activist in Democratic campaigns and causes. If she ran, to what size — if any — would the speaker go in hopes of handing off the seat to her daughter?
Republicans appear exceedingly prone to win management of the Home in November. It appears exceedingly unlikely that Pelosi would fortunately settle into the position of minority chief, a lot much less fall again as a workaday member of a shrunken, enfeebled Democratic caucus.
Would she time her departure to profit her daughter by, say, requiring a snap election that will reap the benefits of Pelosi’s model identify? Or would she keep away from selecting sides and permit the election to play out in San Francisco’s usually brutal, free-for-all trend?
The intrigue continues.
Mark Z. Barabak is a Los Angeles Occasions columnist. ©2022 Los Angeles Occasions. Distributed by Tribune Content material Company.