Utah’s COVID-19 case counts dip, but state warns omicron surge not over

Well being care employee Bob Ekoh administers COVID-19 checks at Metropolis Corridor in Herriman on Thursday, Jan. 6, 2022.

Spenser Heaps, Deseret Information

Almost 40,000 new COVID-19 instances and 28 extra deaths from the virus had been reported over the previous 4 days, the primary numbers from the Utah Division of Well being since Gov. Spencer Cox urged most Utahns displaying signs to skip testing and simply keep residence.

The 39,882 new instances because the governor’s announcement that state testing websites couldn’t sustain with demand fueled by the fast-spreading omicron variant features a record-breaking 13,551 on Friday, 10,080 on Saturday, 6,355 on Sunday and 9,934 on Monday, the Martin Luther King Jr. Day vacation.

Greater than 78,000 folks have been examined and 151,176 checks carried out since Friday, the state mentioned. The rolling seven-day common for constructive checks is 10,652 per day and the rolling seven-day common for p.c positivity of checks is 41.3% when all outcomes are included and 29% when a number of outcomes for a person are excluded.

Though the case counts are heading downward, state well being division spokesman Tom Hudachko made it clear the most recent surge has not but peaked. Some well being specialists have predicted it could possibly be weeks or chance longer earlier than that occurs.

“All of our key knowledge factors proceed to indicate COVID-19 is surging in our communities,” Hudachko mentioned in a press release. “It’s necessary to not concentrate on a single knowledge level when assessing the unfold of COVID-19 in Utah, and proper now all knowledge factors proceed to indicate a major surge statewide.”

Utah noticed new COVID-19 infections leap 191% during the last two weeks, in comparison with a rise of 62% nationwide over the identical time interval, as case counts are declining in New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Washington, D.C., and slowing in another areas, based on knowledge compiled by The New York Instances as of Tuesday.

The newspaper’s knowledge put Utah at No. 5 in the USA for the variety of instances per 100,000 residents within the final seven days, with 304. Rhode Island, with 457, is on the high of the checklist, adopted by Vermont, Wisconsin, Delaware after which Utah. Nationwide, the each day common of instances per 100,000 residents is 238.

Are Utah’s COVID-19 case counts correct?

Even earlier than Cox instructed all however essentially the most weak Utahns with COVID-19 signs to imagine they’ve acquired the virus and keep residence with out getting examined, the state was seemingly undercounting COVID-19 instances. Not everybody who was sick was getting examined, particularly in the event that they had been asymptomatic or bumped into lengthy strains at state testing websites.

Additionally, the outcomes from at-home take a look at kits should not reported to the state. The kits just lately had been being handed out at state testing websites to those that couldn’t anticipate hours to be swabbed, however now, like onsite testing personnel, at-home checks are briefly provide.

Tuesday, the Biden administration’s covidtests.gov web site went stay, a day sooner than introduced. The positioning permits folks to order as much as 4 free residence testing kits for COVID-19 per residence which are anticipated to start out transport out in late January.

Han Kim, a professor of public well being at Westminster Faculty in Salt Lake Metropolis, mentioned the virus case depend has at all times been off, however the unimaginable velocity at which the omicron variant is spreading via the state has made the numbers even much less dependable.

“Epidemiologists have lengthy assumed that COVID is an undercount. It’s only a matter of to what diploma. And proper now, it’s to a really vital diploma. It’s an enormous undercount, I believe,” Kim mentioned, as a result of omicron is “fully overwhelming” Utah’s public well being infrastructure.

“We actually don’t have a system that was designed for something like omicron,” the professor mentioned, including he believes that the practically 12,000 new instances reported final Friday may very well have been greater than 20,000, given the power of omicron infections to double each few days.

But when the state’s numbers don’t mirror that instances are persevering with to climb as they’re anticipated to do for no less than a number of weeks, primarily based on what’s occurred in states hit first by omicron, Kim mentioned one of many largest fears is that some might have the false sense that the virus is immediately beneath management.

Ought to focus shift away from case counts as hospitals wrestle?

There’s a push amongst specialists to cease specializing in case counts, he mentioned, and as a substitute take note of take a look at positivity charges, hospitalizations and deaths. In Utah and across the nation, hospitals are being deluged with COVID-19 as a result of despite the fact that a smaller proportion of instances could also be critical, there are such a lot of extra people who find themselves sick.

Dr. Angela Dunn, head of the Salt Lake County Well being Division, warned Tuesday that hospitalizations are excessive within the state’s most populous county, doubling prior to now two weeks.

“SLCo, hear up,” she tweeted. “Highest 14-day avg #COVID19 hospitalizations - 43.5 SLCo residents hospitalized on a regular basis. COVID hospitalizations have doubled in 14 days. We are able to forestall additional pressure on our hospitals, faculties, companies, important companies. Vax. Masks. Keep residence when sick.”

SLCo, hear up -
Highest 14-day avg #COVID19 hospitalizations - 43.5 SLCo residents hospitalized on a regular basis. COVID hospitalizations have doubled in 14 days. We are able to forestall additional pressure on our hospitals, faculties, companies, important companies.
Vax. Masks. Keep residence when sick.

— Dr. Angela Dunn (@DrAngelaCDunn) January 18, 2022

Dunn, who served as state epidemiologist beneath Cox and his predecessor, Gov. Gary Herbert, earlier than taking the county put up, already had expressed skepticism about case counts over the approaching weeks, saying “instances will seemingly plateau” however solely as a result of testing is proscribed.

Omicron ‘adjustments the worth of testing,’ Utah governor says

At a information convention final Friday to announce the pivot within the state’s pandemic coverage, the governor burdened that COVID-19 testing is exclusive.

“I believe it’s necessary to recollect we don’t do one of these testing with actually another illnesses, proper? We get sick, we keep residence, hopefully, and hopefully we’ll do extra of that. Which may be one of many constructive classes that comes out of this,” Cox mentioned.

Assessments usually solely occur when somebody isn’t getting higher and heads to the physician, he mentioned, describing the explanation behind mass testing for COVID-19 as having the ability to establish the virus in time to sluggish the unfold by utilizing contact tracing to inform these additionally uncovered.

“Omicron could be very, very totally different,” the governor mentioned, two to 4 instances extra contagious than the earlier variant, delta, which was thought of extremely contagious in comparison with earlier variations of the virus and turned Utah into the nation’s sizzling spot for COVID-19 final fall.

That “explosive” unfold, he mentioned, “adjustments the worth of testing.”