COVID deaths dwarf flu deaths on this chart displaying weekly deaths from every over the previous few years within the U.S. (Flourish graphic by Harriet Rowan)
Invoice Gates, the billionaire Microsoft founder and philanthropist who warned that the globe wasn’t prepared for a pandemic, shared a brand new prediction final week on the destiny of COVID-19: “As soon as omicron goes by a rustic, then the remainder of the yr ought to see far fewer circumstances, so COVID might be handled extra like seasonal flu.”
Proper now, that’s exhausting to think about.
With the U.S. recording greater than 750,000 new circumstances and almost 2,000 deaths a day from the super-contagious omicron variant, and hospitals in lots of components of the nation nonetheless bracing for the worst, it’s troublesome to foresee the day we are able to liken COVID to influenza.
“We’ve realized to sort of accommodate and reside with influenza,” mentioned Warner Greene, a virologist on the Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco. “Hopefully we are able to get there with COVID, however we’re not there but.”
There's simply no comparability.
A better take a look at the numbers two years into the pandemic reveals two unmistakable takeaways: COVID killed greater than eight instances as many Individuals in 2021 because the flu killed within the 2017-18 season, the worst in additional than a decade. And for the reason that SARS-CoV-2 virus swept the globe, influenza deaths within the U.S. have plummeted by greater than 90% as humanity hunkered down.
As nations expertise their Omicron wave well being methods will likely be challenged. Many of the extreme circumstances will likely be unvaccinated individuals. As soon as Omicron goes by a rustic then the remainder of the yr ought to see far fewer circumstances so Covid might be handled extra like seasonal flu.
— Invoice Gates (@BillGates) January 11, 2022
Research point out omicron causes milder sickness than earlier COVID variants, however consultants and early information once more say there may be little query: “Omicron is extra lethal than the flu,” mentioned John Swartzberg, scientific professor emeritus of infectious illnesses and vaccinology at UC Berkeley.
“Finish of story,” agreed UCSF infectious illness skilled George Rutherford.
For instance, regardless that it’s nonetheless too early to get an entire image of the loss of life toll from the continued omicron surge, a take a look at the ultimate week of December 2021, as the vacation spike exploded, is telling.
Greater than 5,000 individuals throughout the U.S. died of COVID the final week of 2021. That’s greater than 3 times the variety of individuals — 1,626 — who succumbed to influenza in the course of the deadliest week of the alarming 2017-18 flu season. And for the reason that coronavirus arrived in 2020, there have been simply two weeks within the greater than 100 weeks of the pandemic when fewer than 1,600 individuals died from COVID.
One other startling comparability: About 52,000 individuals died throughout that 2017-18 flu season. Throughout typical influenza years, the virus claims roughly half that many lives. However at its peak final January, the coronavirus claimed greater than 25,000 lives within the U.S. in a single week — on par with the loss of life whole for a complete common flu season.
How about hospitalizations? Influenza isn't any match for COVID, which is straining our medical system in methods unseen earlier than.
In line with Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) estimates, as many as 41 million individuals get sick with the flu in a nasty season. In 2017-18, about 710,000 individuals have been hospitalized for influenza. In 2021, the U.S. recorded roughly 35 million COVID circumstances — and greater than 2.5 million hospitalizations.
Throughout the pandemic, flu deaths have tanked. A number of the precipitous drop probably has to do with adjustments introduced on by the pandemic. Whereas California and particularly different components of the nation will not be locked down and sheltering in place like in March 2020, extra individuals are sporting masks in crowded locations, working remotely and holding off on journey and indoor eating. The extra infectious COVID has thrived regardless of these measures — however the flu, not a lot.
“I feel all people is being way more cautious than previous to COVID,” Swartzberg mentioned. “I feel that’s taking part in a serious position.”
Faculties, particularly in California, are additionally requiring masking and have been out and in of distant studying — disrupting the classroom environments the place flu sometimes spreads, Rutherford mentioned.
There’s additionally the chance, Swartzberg mentioned, that “tragically COVID has already culled out the people who find themselves most certainly to die of influenza.”
Nonetheless, traces of a rebound in flu deaths are beginning to emerge — though they’re troublesome to visualise on a scale with COVID as a result of the variety of deaths is so vastly completely different. In December, month-to-month flu deaths within the U.S. topped 200 for the primary time for the reason that pandemic started.
“We might even see the numbers right here go up” this season, Swartzberg mentioned.
Weekly U.S. flu deaths — which dropped from the triple digits into the double digits when the pandemic hit and have stayed there, typically dipping into the one digits — are more likely to rebound within the coming years, Swartzberg thinks, which suggests the well being care system might want to adapt.
Precisely when that occurs stays to be seen and will rely partially on future coronavirus variants.
“Let me seek the advice of my crystal ball,” joked Rutherford.
Sooner or later, Swartzberg mentioned, medical interventions reminiscent of vaccines, monoclonal antibodies and antiviral remedies might lastly ship us to some extent the place COVID might find yourself being a good comparability to the flu. Moderna has mentioned it even hopes to have a mixed flu and COVID vaccine out there in 2023. However, he mentioned, “it’s going to be a course of.”