Pay no consideration to the variety of losses, the scale of the losses and even the rat-a-tat nature of the losses. Oregon is headed for the NCAA Match, people.
The Geese (11-6) haven’t clinched a bid simply but; they aren’t a lock the best way Arizona, USC and UCLA are locks.
However coach Dana Altman’s crew is well-positioned for an at-large berth after sweeping the Los Angeles faculties and hovering up the NET rankings, which form the March Insanity choice course of.
Oregon is No. 62 within the newest NET, which constitutes a leap of 28 spots from final week and a bubble-level placement.
If our optimism appears odd (or laughable) given Oregon’s 32-point face plant towards Brigham Younger … and the 29-point face plant towards Houston … and the brutal house loss to Arizona State … and the street loss to Stanford … and the six whole losses … the Hotline wish to remind readers of the realities of the NCAA choice course of:
— The variety of losses doesn’t matter. Nor does a crew’s placement within the convention standings or rating within the top-25 polls. And margin of defeat carries restricted significance.
— The three parts that matter most are the variety of good wins (notably away from house), the variety of dangerous losses and the standard of the schedule, particularly the non-conference portion.
Of Oregon’s six losses, just one qualifies as a nasty end result: the house loss to Arizona State.
However the Geese now have two Quadrant I victories, essentially the most invaluable sort within the NET system, after the street wins over USC and UCLA.
And so they possess a stout non-conference schedule, having confronted 4 opponents (Brigham Younger, Saint Mary’s, Houston and Baylor) that might earn at-large bids if the sector had been chosen in the present day.
Oregon is healthier located for an at-large berth, for instance, than Washington State, which is 4 spots larger within the NET rankings. The Geese have extra high quality wins, fewer dangerous losses and a more durable schedule.
And they're higher located than Colorado, which has a greater file (12-4) however can not match the Geese for high quality wins or schedule power.
Backside line: The extra you realize about what actually issues within the choice course of, the higher Oregon’s resume seems.
If the Geese maintain their present trajectory and keep away from losses to groups on the underside tier of the Pac-12 standings, they need to be in strong form when Choice Sunday arrives.
To the facility rankings …
1. Arizona (14-1/4-0)
Final week: 2
Outcomes: beat Colorado 76-55 and Utah 82-64
Subsequent up: at Stanford (Thursday)
NET rating: 2 (final week: 2)
Remark: For all the eye on their tempo, ball motion and scoring prowess, the Wildcats are literally higher on protection than offense, in line with the Pomeroy effectivity rankings.
2. UCLA (11-2/3-1)
Final week: 1
Outcomes: misplaced to Oregon 84-81, beat OSU 81-65
Subsequent up: at Utah (Thursday)
NET rating: 21 (final week: 20)
Remark: Right here come 5 video games in 10 days with a visit to the Mountain faculties adopted by the early-week date with Arizona after which the Bay Space faculties. We’ll set the bar at 4 wins.
3. USC (14-2/4-2)
Final week: 3
Outcomes: Misplaced at Stanford 75-69, beat OSU 81-71, misplaced to Oregon 79-69
Subsequent up: at Colorado (Thursday)
NET rating: 28 (final week: 12)
Remark: The Trojans didn’t lose all three, however their efficiency towards Oregon State wasn’t ok to beat most groups within the convention. They should re-charge.
4. Oregon (11-6/4-2)
Final week: 5
Outcomes: received at UCLA 84-81 and USC 79-69
Subsequent up: vs. Washington State (Thursday)
NET rating: 62 (final week: 90)
Remark: The Geese have three possibilities remaining so as to add to their assortment of premium wins. The alternatives come within the type of back-to-back-to-back dates with Arizona (street) and the L.A. faculties (house) in the midst of February.
5. Colorado (12-4/4-2)
Final week: 4
Outcomes: misplaced at Arizona 76-55, received at ASU 75-57
Subsequent up: vs. USC (Thursday)
NET rating: 89 (final week: 97)
Remark: Residence weekend towards USC and UCLA will present important readability on CU, which is 4-0 towards the center and backside tiers however 0-2 towards the most effective within the league.
6. Stanford (10-5/3-2)
Final week: 8
Outcomes: Beat USC 75-69, received at WSU 62-57, misplaced at Washington 67-64
Subsequent up: vs. Arizona (Thursday)
NET rating: 91 (final week: 101)
Remark: The Cardinal already has crushed Oregon and USC at house and will very nicely take down one other top-tier crew in two days. Of be aware: Stanford hasn’t crushed Arizona in Maples Pavilion since 2009.
7. Washington State (10-7/3-3)
Final week: 6
Outcomes: misplaced to Stanford 62-57, beat Cal 65-57
Subsequent up: at Oregon (Thursday)
NET rating: 58 (final week: 49)
Remark: If the Cougars hope to stay in competition for an NCAA bid, they can't lose extra house video games to middle-of-the-Pac opponents. And so they want a high-level, Quadrant I win someplace, towards somebody.
8. Washington (8-7/3-2)
Final week: 10
Outcomes: beat Cal 64-55 and Stanford 67-64
Subsequent up: at Oregon State (Thursday)
NET rating: 140 (final week: 182)
Remark: “I just like the progress we’ve made and want the season would finish proper now, whereas we’re above .500,” Huskies coach Mike Hopkins by no means stated (however can be forgiven for pondering).
9. Cal (9-9/2-5)
Final week: 7
Outcomes: misplaced at Washington 64-55 and WSU 65-57
Subsequent up: vs. Arizona (Saturday)
NET rating: 129 (final week: 119)
Remark: No sport towards ASU this week as a result of the groups met earlier within the month in a hastily-arranged matchup. With further time to organize for Arizona, the Bears undoubtedly are rooting for the Wildcats to play triple-overtime in Maples on Thursday.
10. Arizona State (5-9/1-3)
Final week: 9
Outcomes: misplaced to Colorado 75-57, beat Utah 64-62
Subsequent up: at Stanford (Saturday)
NET rating: 156 (final week: 147)
Remark: Curious to see whether or not the Solar Devils develop any rhythm offensively as soon as they begin taking part in persistently after two lengthy breaks. Or if their struggles are a hard and fast existence.
11. Utah (8-9/1-6)
Final week: 11
Outcomes: misplaced at Arizona 82-64 and Arizona State 64-62
Subsequent up: vs. UCLA (Thursday)
NET rating: 122 (final week: 121)
Remark: Sure, the Utes are worse than we anticipated. A lot worse. And so they’re looking at a winless January with the L.A. faculties on the town after which a visit to Washington.
12. Oregon State (3-13/1-5)
Final week: 12
Outcomes: misplaced at USC 81-71 and UCLA 81-65
Subsequent up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
NET rating: 206 (final week: 209)
Remark: First time in weeks that we thought of anybody else for the 12-hole. That’s progress, proper?
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