Our multi-part sequence previewing the 2022 season continues with projections for the Pac-12 division races. We’ll replace the picks on the conclusion of spring apply and instantly earlier than the season.
Hyperlinks to earlier installments are on the backside.
NORTH
1. Oregon: Uneasy rests the crown. The defending division champions have extra questions than they did previous to the 2021 season. How will rookie coach Dan Lanning and his employees develop personnel and navigate the season? Is Auburn switch Bo Nix the reply at quarterback? Are there sufficient items to offset attrition within the secondary? Additionally, can they beat Utah? Clearly, former coach Mario Cristobal left a heap of expertise behind — the Geese have the makings of a first-rate defensive entrance and the most effective roster within the division. However it’s not precisely a stacked division. Which suggests the one-eyed group is king.
2. Washington State: Not solely will we view the Cougars as the most effective guess for second place (primarily based on present roster outlooks); we thought of selecting them to win the North. And why not? They completed second in ’21 regardless of a lot turbulence and have sufficient returning playmakers to carry their floor in what seems to be a free-for-all division. Success relies upon closely on the play of recent quarterback Cam Ward, a switch from Incarnate Phrase whose expertise are well-suited for the so-called Coug Raid. If Ward performs to expectations and the protection doesn’t regress, neither will WSU.
3. Washington: Our evaluation of the Huskies begins with the next premise: They have been artificially dangerous in 2021 — that means, their file was a number of video games worse than it ought to have been primarily based on the accessible expertise. (All issues equal, together with the teaching, that was most likely a seven-win group.) We count on a new-coach bounce below Kalen DeBoer, however are the Huskies able to profitable greater than seven and contending severely within the North? Of that, we’re unconvinced. There are holes at too many positions — even within the secondary, which has been a longtime power.
4. Oregon State: There's each purpose to imagine the Beavers will stay an element within the North however little purpose to imagine they will take the following step and rule the North. For all of the progress below coach Jonathan Smith, there may be extra floor to cowl to achieve the highest — an excessive amount of floor, primarily based on the present roster outlook. The offense has a recognized amount at quarterback in Likelihood Nolan, however will the road stay a power with out Nathan Eldridge and Nous Keobounnam? The protection was OSU’s undoing final season, however we don’t see fast fixes on the depth chart for brand new coordinator Trent Bray.
5. Cal: The group with the best probability to provide an upside shock (primarily based on these projections). Cal was 5-7 final season, with 5 losses by a landing or much less. That means the distinction between one other mediocre season and a achievement of the Bears’ pre-pandemic promise doubtless will unfold on the margins: a pink zone conversion right here, a turnover there, and the avoidance of significant harm to some key gamers. That mentioned, the quarterback play — Jack Plummer, not too long ago of Purdue, is our decide to win the job — should clear a baseline stage of competency. And that’s hardly a assure.
6. Stanford: The wheels fell off in 2021, exposing critical deficiencies in expertise, pace, depth and physicality. (Apart from that, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?) Tanner McKee is a high-level passer, however the Cardinal can not return to respectability with no vastly-improved operating sport. Defensively, there isn’t a lot purpose to count on an uptick. The switch portal unquestionably has made life tougher for academically-oriented faculties like Stanford (and Cal, for that matter). To offset the impression, every little thing else concerning the aggressive operation have to be higher, together with scheme and recruiting.
SOUTH
1. Utah: No-brainer decide for the highest of the South primarily based on the returning expertise and the deficiencies elsewhere within the division. The Utes will lose key gamers on the strains of scrimmage, together with receiver Britain Covey and linebacker extraordinaire Devin Lloyd. However the offense ought to be strong with quarterback Cam Rising, tailback Tavion Thomas and tight finish Brant Kuithe. There are many playmakers on protection, significantly within the secondary with cornerback Clark Phillips III and security Cole Bishop. The Utes have gained three consecutive division titles in regular seasons. We like their possibilities for No. 4 — and for a critical run on the Faculty Soccer Playoff.
2. USC: One of the best of mediocre choices to complete behind Utah. Whereas we count on a right away upturn below Lincoln Riley, the dimensions of the bounce is extremely unsure and will depend on three components: Riley’s capacity to discover a top-tier quarterback within the switch portal (maybe Oklahoma’s Caleb Williams); the efficiency alongside the strains of scrimmage, the place USC has grown smooth; and the pace with which a tradition of self-discipline and accountability take root. The Trojans may push Utah for the title or end a number of video games again. And it is perhaps months earlier than we've extra readability on their destiny.
3. UCLA: The Bruins improved considerably in 2021 however weren’t near profitable the division: They completed two video games again and have been overwhelmed soundly when it mattered (by Utah and ASU). The return of quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and tailback Zach Charbonnet will assist forestall a serious backslide below coach Chip Kelly, who has a brand new four-year contract. However the losses within the passing sport and at scrimmage are vital (and embody line coach Justin Frye leaping to Oho State). We’ll reserve judgment on the wobbly protection till Kelly settles on a coordinator.
4. Arizona: No program has made extra progress off the sector up to now six weeks than the Wildcats, who gained floor on each Colorado and ASU, significantly at quarterback. Jayden de Laura’s relocation from Washington State to Tucson seemingly ensures a high quality possibility on the place. (Both he wins the job or somebody performs effectively sufficient to beat him out.) The Wildcats are two or three seasons from contending for a top-tier end within the South, and they won't get there — main upgrades are required on the strains of scrimmage. However they need to keep away from one other last-place end.
5. Arizona State: We initially deliberate to fit the Solar Devils into fourth place however grew to become extra skeptical because the analysis progressed. Sure, Jayden Daniels is returning, however his lack of progress since 2019 hardly suggests an elite season awaits. The touted receivers haven’t developed, do-everything tailback Rachaad White is off to the NFL, and the road is dropping a number of key items. In the meantime, the veteran protection will get hit at each stage, particularly within the secondary. Add the unsure final result of the NCAA investigation — and the impression it may have on roster reloading — and ASU appears to be like destined for a regression. A lot stays to be decided in Tempe.
6. Colorado: The heady days of 2020, when the Buffaloes contended for the South title and Karl Dorrell gained Pac-12 Coach of the 12 months honors, really feel like they folded a decade in the past. A disappointing second season below Dorrell has given solution to vital modifications — some for the higher, others clearly for the more serious. Dorrell has overhauled his teaching employees, however an offense that struggled all yr and lacks readability at quarterback additionally misplaced its high playmakers, tailback Jarek Broussard and receiver Brenden Rice. The protection has been hit arduous by attrition, as effectively. The tip result's a big improve in strain on Dorrell coming into his third season.
*** Beforehand …
My early high 25 for the 2022 season
High Pac-12 storylines for the 2022 season
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