With the NFL’s first “Tremendous Wild Card Weekend” within the books, solely eight groups stay within the hunt for the Tremendous Bowl title.
After rating all 32 groups all through the 18-week common season, The Baltimore Solar examines the highest contenders heading into the divisional spherical:
1. Inexperienced Bay Packers
Because of their first-round bye, the Packers (13-4) have been capable of give left sort out David Bakhtiari, cornerback Jaire Alexander and edge rusher Za’Darius Smith one other week of relaxation as they work their means again from harm. Bakhtiari shook off some rust in Week 18 in opposition to the Lions, whereas Alexander and Smith returned to follow in latest weeks. That’s three Professional Bowl-caliber gamers the NFC’s No. 1 seed can drop onto its roster for an important stretch of the season.
After all, the Packers even have the perfect quarterback-receiver mixture within the league in Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, a robust one-two at working again in Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon and one of the vital profitable younger coaches in NFL historical past in Matt LaFleur. But when there’s one Achilles heel on this group, it’s particular groups, which ended the season ranked final in Soccer Outsiders’ DVOA.
Regardless of having the perfect odds to win the Tremendous Bowl, the Packers face a tricky matchup Saturday evening in opposition to a San Francisco 49ers group that has dominated them in latest postseasons. The Packers’ protection remains to be weak in opposition to the run, which performs proper into coach Kyle Shanahan’s palms along with his run-heavy wide-zone offense. Nonetheless, Inexperienced Bay is getting wholesome on the proper time and has the doubtless Most Useful Participant underneath heart. That is the group to beat.
2. Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Since shedding 27-3 to the Titans to drop to 3-4, the Chiefs (13-5) have received 10 of their previous 11 video games to as soon as once more stake their declare as the perfect group within the league. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been distinctive as common, however the Chiefs’ turnaround coincides with a drastic enchancment on protection. After permitting 32.6 factors per sport in Weeks 1-5, Kansas Metropolis gave up simply 16.7 factors per sport from Weeks 6-18.
All of the Chiefs wanted was a league-average protection to return to the Tremendous Bowl. As an alternative, it received among the finest within the NFL down the stretch, due to some necessary changes by coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and a few key adjustments in personnel. The emergence of security Juan Thornhill and rookie linebacker Nick Bolton, the commerce for rejuvenated edge rusher Melvin Ingram and the return of defensive lineman Chris Jones to the inside has helped solidify a unit that threatened to sink Kansas Metropolis’s season.
It helps to have maybe the perfect quarterback within the league, too. Together with his 404 yards and 5 touchdowns in Sunday evening’s 42-21 win over the Steelers, Mahomes is averaging 309.8 yards and a pair of.8 touchdowns over the previous six weeks. With receiver Tyreek Hill, tight finish Travis Kelce and breakout working again Jerick McKinnon main the best way, the Chiefs have greater than sufficient expertise on offense to outscore any group within the league.
3. Buffalo Payments
If there’s one group that may sustain with Kansas Metropolis offensively, it’s the Payments (12-6). That was evident in Saturday evening’s record-setting 47-17 rout over the Patriots by which Buffalo turned the primary group in league historical past to not kick a subject objective, punt or commit a turnover, scoring on its first seven possessions earlier than working out the clock. Quarterback Josh Allen showcased his elite skill with a commanding efficiency: 21-for-25 for 308 yards and 5 touchdowns via the air, six carries for 66 yards on the bottom. Allen turned the fifth quarterback in NFL historical past with extra touchdowns (5) than incompletions (4) and set the file for highest Complete QBR (98.5) because the stat was launched in 2006.
If Allen’s superstardom wasn’t sufficient, the Payments’ protection has been among the many league’s greatest all season. The unit entered the postseason ranked No. 1 in DVOA earlier than intercepting Patriots rookie Mac Jones twice, recording three sacks and limiting New England’s working backs to three.6 yards per carry. Even with out star cornerback Tre’Davious White, this protection remains to be elite.
There simply aren’t many holes on this roster, which is why Buffalo may very well be properly on its technique to its first Tremendous Bowl title.
4. Tennessee Titans
Nearly as good because the Chiefs and Payments have been all season, the Titans (12-5) are the group that earned the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye. With its ground-and-pound speeding assault and play-action heavy passing sport, Tennessee is an intriguing foil for Kansas Metropolis and Buffalo’s unfold offenses. To make issues much more fascinating, star working again Derrick Henry is on observe to return for the divisional spherical after lacking a lot of the season with a foot harm.
You don’t need to squint to see how the Titans might win the AFC. In a four-game stretch halfway via the season, Tennessee defeated three high-caliber playoff groups and one robust contender within the Chiefs, Payments, Colts and Rams. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill isn’t often thought-about when discussing the highest quarterbacks within the league, however he stays one of the vital environment friendly. He’s getting scorching on the proper time, too, throwing seven landing passes and nil interceptions over his previous three video games whereas finishing greater than 73% of his makes an attempt.
If Henry can return to his common dominant self, huge receivers A.J. Brown and Julio Jones impose their will on smaller defensive backs and the protection performs in addition to it has for a lot of the common season, there’s a path for the Titans to make a shocking run to the Tremendous Bowl.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating a group with the best quarterback of all time fifth on this train appears silly, however accidents have taken their toll on this proficient Bucs roster. Tampa Bay (14-4) misplaced All-Professional proper sort out Tristan Wirfs to an ankle harm in Sunday’s 31-15 win over the Eagles, taking one more prime participant away from quarterback Tom Brady and this beleaguered offense.
Mike Evans stays an elite receiver, however the lack of Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown has erased a few of the big-play potential of Brady’s downfield passing assault. Evans and tight finish Rob Gronkowski are ok to hold the load in opposition to the Eagles, however how will this offense fare in opposition to a few of the greatest defenses within the league? It’s placing so much on the plate of a 44-year-old quarterback.
A minimum of the Bucs can hold their hat on their protection, which has been steadied by the return of veteran linebacker Lavonte David. A secondary led by star security Antoine Winfield Jr. and cornerbacks Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean is able to shutting down a few of the league’s greatest passing assaults, whereas a defensive position led by Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett and athletic rookie Joe Tryon-Shoyinka can each cease the run and rush the passer successfully.
With extra playoff wins than the remainder of the league’s postseason quarterbacks mixed, Brady is aware of higher than anybody the way to grind out an unpleasant victory. Tampa Bay goes to wish him to steer just a few extra to defend its Tremendous Bowl title.
6. Los Angeles Rams
13 seasons and 323 landing passes later, Matthew Stafford lastly has a playoff victory. The veteran quarterback has been the supply of a lot frustration for his head-scratching turnovers all through his profession, however he confirmed in Monday evening’s 34-11 win over the Cardinals that he will be affected person. The previous Lions star completed 13-for-17 for 202 yards and two touchdowns by merely taking what the protection gave him and never forcing throws into tight home windows. That model of Stafford may be the distinction for a Rams (13-5) group considering Tremendous Bowl or bust.
What was extra encouraging Monday evening was the play of the Rams’ protection, which pressured quarterback Kyler Murray to make a number of pricey errors. Strain from Aaron Donald and Co. led to 2 interceptions, together with the shortest pick-six in postseason historical past, whereas Los Angeles held Arizona to only 183 complete yards. The Rams will miss defensive signal-caller Jordan Fuller after the beginning security suffered a season-ending ankle harm in Week 18, however younger backups Nick Scott and Terrell Burgess performed properly in his absence. Shutting down Brady and the Bucs will probably be a much bigger problem, however this Rams defensive entrance ought to be capable of reap the benefits of a weakened Tampa Bay offensive line.
If Stafford and the protection can play in addition to they did Monday evening, the Rams may be Inexperienced Bay’s largest menace within the NFC.
7. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals (11-7) exorcised some demons Saturday, securing their first playoff victory because the 1990 season with a 26-19 win over the Raiders. All it took was reuniting maybe the most efficient quarterback-receiver duo in school soccer historical past.
After placing up record-setting numbers at LSU, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase have picked up the place they left off within the NFL. In getting back from a season-ending knee harm, Burrow has rapidly grow to be among the finest quarterbacks within the NFL, rating first in Professional Soccer Focus grading and second in EPA/CPOE composite, in accordance with RBSDM.com. Chase, in the meantime, ranked fourth within the NFL with 1,455 receiving yards, together with a rookie single-game file 266 in a Week 17 win over the Chiefs. Their chemistry has led to huge play after huge play, often deep down the sphere. In line with Subsequent Gen Stats, Chase led the NFL with 923 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns outdoors the numbers in the course of the common season.
The Bengals’ protection, nevertheless, wants a wholesome Trey Hendrickson to stay with the Payments and Chiefs. After the star edge rusher went down with a concussion Saturday, Cincinnati’s cross rush utterly disappeared. For the season, the Bengals’ strain charge was twice as excessive with Hendrickson on the sphere (35.8%) than with out (17.6%), in accordance with Subsequent Gen Stats. Fortuitously for the Bengals, their protection has been significantly better in opposition to the run than the cross, which is a motive for optimism heading into Saturday’s matchup in opposition to the Titans.
8. San Francisco 49ers
May we see one other Tremendous Bowl run from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers like we did three years in the past? Sunday’s dramatic end in opposition to the Cowboys obscured the truth that San Francisco (11-7) dominated a lot of the sport in opposition to a group that entered the postseason ranked No. 1 in DVOA. Had been it not for a Garoppolo interception late within the sport, that 23-17 victory might have been extra lopsided.
After all, that Garoppolo decide illustrates precisely why it’s laborious to belief these Niners. San Francisco actually didn’t commerce up within the draft for quarterback Trey Lance as a result of it believes in its veteran starter, who’s doubtless on his means out after this season. However with star receivers Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk and a robust offensive line paving the best way for rookie sensation Elijah Mitchell, this Kyle Shanahan offense is nearly fool-proof when it’s clicking on all cylinders.
The massive query for the 49ers is the well being of star edge rusher Nick Bosa (concussion) and linebacker Fred Warner (knee), who each exited Sunday’s sport with accidents. The 49ers doubtless want each at full power to take down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, particularly because the secondary is unlikely to carry up for 60 minutes in opposition to Adams and Co. However even with Garoppolo’s many faults, this group is proficient and bodily sufficient to present the Packers a scare in Lambeau.