SANTA CLARA, CALIFORNIA – SEPTEMBER 26: San Francisco 49ers’ George Kittle (85) runs after a catch in opposition to Inexperienced Bay Packers’ Jaire Alexander (23) within the fourth quarter at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., on Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021. (Nhat V. Meyer/Bay Space Information Group)
Practically 17 years after the 49ers bypassed native Cal Bears star Aaron Rodgers to pick out College of Utah quarterback Alex Smith with the primary total decide within the 2005 NFL Draft, Rodgers has yet one more likelihood to make San Francisco remorse its choice.
The ten-time Professional Bowler, three-time MVP and 2010 Tremendous Bowl champion has achieved practically every little thing an NFL participant can dream of, however his illustrious résumé nonetheless lacks one coveted bullet level.
Rodgers has by no means overwhelmed the 49ers within the playoffs.
Saturday’s NFC Divisional spherical matchup between the Packers and 49ers marks the fourth postseason assembly between the franchises because the infamous 2005 NFL Draft. Whereas Rodgers has discovered loads of success in Inexperienced Bay, the 2021 MVP favourite would like to avenge playoff defeats from the 2012, 2013 and 2019 seasons and remind the 49ers no less than another time that they made the improper alternative.
How robust are Rodgers’ probabilities?
The highest-seeded Packers are 5.5-point favorites over the sixth-seeded 49ers and well-rested following a Wild Card Weekend bye, however there’s nonetheless a path to victory for San Francisco.
Utilizing seven key analysis components — turnover margin, second-half scoring, time of possession, speeding makes an attempt and yards, passing makes an attempt and yards, third- and fourth-down conversions and an X-factor– we seemed on the 4 head-to-head matchups between present head coaches Matt LaFleur and Kyle Shanahan and decided the components the 49ers should comply with to beat Rodgers and the Packers.
Packers 30, 49ers 28 (Sept. 26, 2021)
After beginning the season 2-0, the 49ers fell behind 17-0 in opposition to the Packers earlier than rookie quarterback Trey Lance scored on a one-yard landing run on the ultimate play of the primary half. A ten-point halftime deficit in opposition to Rodgers and former Palo Alto Excessive standout Davante Adams appeared too massive to beat, however veteran quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo led three second-half scoring drives and hit fullback Kyle Juszczyk for a 12-yard landing go with 37 seconds left to provide San Francisco a shocking 28-27 lead.
The 49ers appeared poised to maneuver to 3-0, however Rodgers related with Adams on 25 and 17-yard completions on a last-minute drive to arrange Mason Crosby’s 51-yard game-winning discipline aim as time expired. Two 49ers turnovers coupled with San Francisco’s incapacity to generate a lot offense on the bottom (21 carries for 67 yards) proved pricey, but it surely was the secondary’s failure to include Adams (12 catches, 132 yards, one landing) that finally led to Inexperienced Bay’s win.
Largest keys in end result: X-factor (Davante Adams), turnover margin (49ers 2, Packers 0), speeding yards and makes an attempt (49ers 21 for 67, Packers 25 for 100)
Packers 34, 49ers 17 (Nov. 5, 2020)
A 49ers staff that had misplaced Garoppolo to a excessive ankle sprain was within the midst of a midseason slide when the Packers arrived at Levi’s Stadium and trounced San Francisco with a dominant first-half efficiency.
A lackluster 49ers secondary was fully overmatched in opposition to Rodgers and Adams, who synced up 10 instances for 173 yards and a landing. Their scoring connection got here on a 36-yard go on the opening drive that arrange a Packers onslaught as Inexperienced Bay led 34-3 on the finish of three quarters earlier than 49ers quarterback Nick Mullens racked up yards in rubbish time that made the ultimate rating look extra respectable.
The 49ers have been unable to run the ball successfully as they managed simply 55 yards on 17 carries whereas their protection had nearly no hope containing Rodgers, who accomplished 25-of-31 makes an attempt for 305 yards and 4 touchdowns on the day.
Largest keys in end result: X-factor (Davante Adams), turnover margin (49ers 2, Packers 0), time of possession (49ers: 23:30, Packers: 36:30)
49ers 37, Packers 20 (Jan. 19, 2020)
After obliterating the Packers in the course of the common season, the 49ers placed on a present in the course of the NFC Championship Recreation as operating again Raheem Mostert carried 29 instances for 220 yards and 4 touchdowns in probably the most iconic playoff performances in franchise historical past.
Garoppolo tried simply eight passes in opposition to Inexperienced Bay as Mostert ran for 160 first-half yards and have become the primary NFL participant to high 200 yards and rack up 4 speeding touchdowns in a playoff recreation. San Francisco’s protection dominated in opposition to Rodgers, who nonetheless accomplished 31-of-39 makes an attempt for 326 yards however turned the ball over twice by way of the air whereas additionally taking three sacks.
The 49ers led 27-0 at halftime because the Packers punted thrice and turned the ball over twice of their 5 first-half possessions.
Largest keys in end result: X-factor (Raheem Mostert), speeding yards and makes an attempt (49ers: 42 for 285 yards, Packers: 16 for 64 yards), turnover margin (49ers 0, Packers 3)
49ers 37, Packers 8 (Nov. 24, 2019)
The Packers arrived at Levi’s Stadium for a extremely anticipated November matchup with an 8-2 document and an opportunity to match the 49ers atop the NFC, however Inexperienced Bay shortly fell aside in one of many worst video games of Rodgers’ profession.
Linebacker Fred Warner sacked Rodgers on the sport’s opening possession and a restoration by rookie go rusher Nick Bosa arrange a direct 49ers landing in a recreation that had already was a blowout (23-0) by halftime.
Rodgers accomplished 20-of-33 passes for simply 104 yards as Inexperienced Bay completed 1-for-15 on third down and gave up 5 sacks to a ferocious 49ers go rush. Garoppolo was the higher quarterback as he hit Deebo Samuel for a 42-yard first-half landing go earlier than placing the sport on ice with a 61-yard landing strike to George Kittle late within the third quarter.
Largest keys in end result: Passing makes an attempt and yards (Rodgers: 20-for-33, 104 yards, Garoppolo: 14-for-20, 253 yards), third and fourth-down conversions (Packers: 2-for-18, 49ers: 3-for-9)
Keys to victory
When Shanahan’s 49ers have overwhelmed LaFleur’s Packers, they’ve relied on dominant performances within the trenches and a capability to no less than include Adams, who represents the obvious matchup benefit for Inexperienced Bay in opposition to a San Francisco secondary that has had loads of struggles this season.
Within the first recreation the groups performed this yr, the 49ers solely sacked Rodgers as soon as and had but to discover a rhythm with their speeding assault, which is now led by a pair of proficient playmakers in rookie Elijah Mitchell and Samuel, an All-Professional vast receiver who frequently strains up within the backfield. The present iteration of the 49ers’ offense is extra dynamic than the model that scored 28 factors in opposition to the Packers in Week 3 whereas the secondary, which now depends on Emmanuel Moseley and rookie Ambry Thomas at cornerback, seems extra polished than the group that Rodgers and Adams torched earlier this yr.
Limiting penalties, successful the turnover battle and establishing an edge on each side of the ball on the line of scrimmage have been the 49ers’ keys to success in victories all yr and their most up-to-date win in opposition to the Packers, so it ought to come as no shock that Shanahan’s staff will doubtless want to stay to its id to take down the No. 1 seed within the NFC at Lambeau Subject on Saturday.